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Spotlight - RB Warrick Dunn, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 7/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

In 10 seasons in the NFL (five with Tampa Bay, five with Atlanta) Warrick Dunn has reached 1,000 yards rushing five times, including each of the last three years.  He has rushed for more first downs (65 and 48, respectively) over the last two years than any other season prior. Despite being 32 years old and turning 33 at the end of the 2007 season, some may say that based on those stats he is still on top of his game.

Or is he?

Are those numbers simply a result of being on a team whose rushing attack led the NFL in yards rushing each of the last three years?

Atlanta Rushing Yards (per game)

• 2004: 167.0
• 2005: 159.1
• 2006: 183.7

What do we know about Warrick Dunn?

• 286 rushing attempts in 2006 was the highest season total of his career. His 2^nd highest was 2005 (280 attempts) and 3^rd highest was 2004 (265 attempts)
• Over 1400 total yards in 2 of the last 3 season, but not last season (1310 total yards)
• 426 career receptions and only 3 lost fumbles on those receptions. Zero fumbles lost on his last 566 carries
• 22 receptions in 2006 -- the lowest season total in his 10-year career
• 150 games played in 160 possible regular season games. The guy is pretty durable
• He never finished worse than the 27^th best RB in terms of fantasy ranking. 2006 he finished 24^th

The Jerious  Norwood Factor

The 2006 season brought the addition of Atlanta's rookie 3^rd round pick, RB Jerious Norwood into an already solid running game. Norwood is definitely the team's future at running back, but the big question is when will he take over as the team's primary ball carrier, not will he? Norwood had 3 games of 10+ carries in 2006, but he never exceeded 13 carries in a game. He averaged an astounding 6.4 yards per carry in all of 2006 (6.6 YPC at home, 6.2 YPC on the road) and a jaw-dropping 8.0 yards per carry on first down (56 attempts).  Playing with the same offensive line, against the same run defenses, Norwood averaged 2.4 more yards per carry than Warrick Dunn last year. That stat alone leaves many with the unmistakable notion that Norwood will receive a greater workload in 2007 than Dunn.

Positives

• Warrick Dunn was the primary ball carrier for Atlanta last year, despite Jerious Norwood's emergence. Dunn had 286 carries, while Norwood had only 99
• Dunn at 5'8", 180 lbs. is a quicker, shiftier back that has always been capable of receiving passes out of the backfield. The Falcons new coach Bobby Petrino loves a back that can catch and Dunn fits the mold perfectly
• Even if Jerious Norwood takes over where he left off last season, there still will likely be enough yards for Dunn to put him in the top 30 among fantasy RB's and quite possibly the top 25 if he sees more playing time due to an injury to Norwood

Negatives

• Dunn, at age 32 is coming off the most strenuous season of his career (286 carries) and it didn't come without a price. A banged up shoulder from his hefty 2006 season resulted in off season arthroscopic surgery that will require several months of rehabilitation before he can resume football activities. He should be OK, but then again surgery, especially at his point in his career is not a good thing. His heavy workload over the past three seasons will eventually catch up to him
• Dunn averaged 3.5 YPC or less in 10 of his 16 games last season. He only had 1 rushing TD over the last 8 weeks of the 2006 season. He started off with three 100-yd rushing games in the first 6 weeks and didn't see a 100-yd game the rest of the way
• Jerious Norwood is the future of the Falcons at the running back position and at 8.0 yards per carry on first down, 6.4 yards per carry overall, how can the Falcons not give him more carries?

Final Thoughts

Aging running back, Warrick Dunn is coming off three very successful, yet strenuous, seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, the NFL's best rushing offense in each of the last three years. We know that he is going to see a decreased workload with the emergence of 2nd year running back Jerious Norwood, what we don't know is how much of a hit in production should we expect? Atlanta is coming off a 183.7 yards rushing per game in 2006, but don't expect similar lofty numbers, especially with a new coaching staff and the loss of Offensive Line coach Russ Grimm. A decrease in numbers overall from the running game also means a decrease in what was already expected to be a decrease due to Norwood's emergence. I think Dunn will average around 13 carries per game in the early going, but eventually settle to 9-11 carries per game after mid-season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Warrick Dunn has been a productive and consistent running back for the Atlanta Falcons. However, this season he is recovering from an off-season surgery, he has a new head coach fresh out of the NCAA, he has lost his outstanding offensive line coach Alex Gibbs, the Falcons are employing a power running game for which he is not well suited, and oh yes he is 32 years old.

Over the past five seasons, he has the following stats:
02 - 15 gms 230 rushese 927 yds (4.0 ypc) 7 TDs 50 catches 377 yds 2 TDs
03 - 11 gms 125 rushese 672 yds (5.4 ypc) 3 TDs 37 catches 336 yds 2 TDs
04 - 16 gms 265 rushese 1165 yds (4.2 ypc) 9 TDs 29 catches 294 yds 0 TDs
05 - 16 gms 280 rushese 1416 yds (5.1 ypc) 3 TDs 29 catches 220 yds 1 TD
06 - 16 gms 286 rushese 1140 yds (4.0 ypc) 4 TDs 22 catches 170 yds 1 TD

The last three seasons in particular, he has been an excellent yardage producer, just short on the TDs. But, he's 32. The best season in the recent past for a 32 year old RB has been Mile Anderson in Denver where he had 1014 rushing yards and 212 receiving yards and 13 TDs producing 201 fantasy points.

So, to project Dunn with anything resembling his past three seasons would represent one of the best years a 32 year old has had recently. With all the changes and the competition from Jerious Norwood, I just don't see it.

Hammerage:
I see RBBC with Dunn getting the short end of the stick. Even if they went even 50/50 Norwood would likely be more productive. Last year Dunn's yards per carry dropped to 4.0 but even worse it dropped to about 3.5 over the last several games of the season. I think this was a sign of him wearing down. Given that I think the coaching staff would limit his touches more this year to Norwood's benefit and Norwood should have the much better yard/carry average vs Dunn.

Warrick Dunn Projections