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Spotlight - WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 6/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Donald Driver should be on everyone's fantasy short list, for a number of reasons:

Consistency -- Driver has caught at least 84 passes in each of the last three seasons; and has notched back-to-back-to-back 1,200-yard campaigns. In the history of the NFL, only 12 other receivers have three (or more) consecutive 1,200-yard receiving seasons:
 

• Jerry Rice ('88-'96, Nine Seasons)
• Torry Holt ('00-'05, Six Seasons)
• Randy Moss ('98-'03, Six Seasons)
• Marvin Harrison ('99-'03, Five Seasons)
• Michael Irvin ('91-'95, Five Seasons)
• Lance Allworth ('66-'69, Four Seasons)
• Chad Johnson ('03-'06, Four Seasons)
• Henry Ellard ('88-'90, Three Seasons)
• Joe Horn ('00-'02, Three Seasons)
• Herman Moore ('95-'97, Three Seasons)
• Terrell Owens ('00-'02, Three Seasons)
• Jimmy Smith ('99-'01, Three Seasons)

That is rarified company, indeed.

Excellence -- Driver isn't physically imposing (6'0", 177 pounds) and has played under the shadow of QB Brett Favre; but his credentials are unmistakable.
 

• Last year, Driver led all WRs with 541 yards after the catch (YAC); an essential component of the West Coast offense.
• His 11 receptions for 25+ yards were 4^th best in the league
• He tied for 4^th most 3^rd down conversions (23)
• He is the 4^th most targeted receiver over the last three seasons
• His 3,719 receiving yards over the last three seasons are 3^rd best, behind only Chad Johnson (4,076) and Torry Holt (3,891)
• His 507 fantasy points are 6^th best over that span
• He has ranked 10^th, 13^th and 5^th among fantasy WRs the last three seasons, respectively

Adaptability -- Some receivers excel under optimum conditions, but it's rare for a player to deliver elite production in a variety of different circumstances. Driver, on the other hand, has produced in myriad scenarios:

• In 2002, Driver delivered despite the presence of an emergent Javon Walker and a proven Terry Glenn. The Green Bay defense and ground game were effective, as well.
• In 2004, Driver produced despite Javon Walker's emergence as a top-tier receiver; meanwhile the Packers defense struggled.
• In 2005, Brett Favre struggled, the running game was non-existent and Driver had no WR2 keeping defenses honest, yet he still delivered.
• In 2006, Favre threw the fewest TDs (18) while the defense rebounded and the running game was mediocre; yet Driver delivered, YET AGAIN.

It doesn't matter if Driver has competition for targets or not, whether he's the WR1 or WR2, whether Favre is having a great year or not, or whether the Packers other units are performing well; Driver has delivered solid fantasy results against all circumstances.

Value -- Each and every year, Donald Driver represents fantasy value. In years past, he's been drafted in the WR18 -24 range and outperformed. This year, despite a 5^th place finish a season ago, his current ADP is WR14. The way you win fantasy titles is by targeting players who are well positioned to outperform their draft position. Driver is the definition of that mantra.

Positives

• Driver provides consistency (3 consecutive 1,200-yard seasons) and value (Exceeded his ADP in four of the last five seasons)
• The Packers running attack is unproven and, with Favre under center, the team will continue to throw the ball with abandon
• Driver led the league in YAC last year, but also was among league leaders in deep ball receptions; versatility personified

Negatives

• Greg Jennings was on equal footing with Driver until his injury last year, his ascendancy could trigger a regression in Driver [but I'm not betting on it]
• Brett Favre showed signs of decline last year (18 TDs, career low yards-per-attempt); if he declines further the entire passing attack would suffer
• An improved young defense could lead to a more balanced run/pass ratio

Final Thoughts

Donald Driver is the new Joe Horn or Tim Brown...fantasy drafters [myself included] will keep penciling him in for the same kind of season until he fails to deliver. Logically I see no reason why he would fail to deliver so; I'm seeing fantasy value yet again in 2007. Favre is back, the young line should continue to improve, and an uncertain ground game assures the team will continue to throw the ball 550+ times. Driver needs to only stay healthy to deliver.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

el-gato-grande:
Driver is the kind of receiver you hate facing because the guy always goes off for 150+ yards and a TD a few times per year. And of course it will be against your team every single time. If you are lucky enough to own him, then you come to appreciate that you can plug Driver into your lineup every single week and feel like you will get consistent production with the occasional flash of domination. Driver is a borderline WR1 and the ultimate WR2.

CalBear:
In 2004, Driver put up 1200 yards and 9 TDs, which is above what everyone is projecting him for here. I don't think you have to be worried; he's the closest thing to a lock for top 15 you'll get outside of the third round. (As always, assuming Favre plays 16 games).

Sigmund Bloom, FBG Staff:
Well, [Greg] Jennings did this with only 4 months of pro experience and one camp under his belt. It's clear that he and Favre were "on the same page". I don't any reason that Jennings would take a step back between then and now. The main question is whether we have to worry that Jennings is injury prone (he broke his ankle in 02, otherwise was durable). I believe if Jennings is healthy for 16 games, we wont see more than a 10% gap between his stats and Drivers - especially in non-PPR leagues.

Donald Driver Projections