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Spotlight - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 8/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Maurice Jones-Drew is a phenomenal running back, and should have a long and promising career in the NFL as a feature runner. Coming into the league, he was viewed as explosive but undersized, and many wondered if he wasn't destined for 3rd-down duties when the Jaguars needed to spell Fred Taylor. Yet,  he went on to score TDs in 12 of 14 games (he barely played in the first two weeks), averaged an astounding 5.7 yards per rush and was equally adept on any down and distance.

All things being equal, Jones-Drew's rookie performance would have him ranked among the top-10 in preseason fantasy rankings, were it not for Fred Taylor. Yes, Taylor was also quite effective last season (1,388 total yards and 6 TDs) and looked like the Taylor of old, averaging 5.0 yards per rush while logging a solid 231 carries.

Point 1: Jones-Drew's yards per carry is likely to decline
His 5.7 yards per rush last year on 166 carries was, likely, an enigma. While anything is possible in the NFL, history tells us that few backs ever have one year with that kind of average much less back-to-back seasons.

Point 2: Jones-Drew's TDs per touch are likely to decline
For much the same reason, history suggest Jones-Drew won't be as productive per touch in 2007 as he was in 2006. His 7.8% TD conversion rate ranks 14th all-time (for backs with 100+ rushes) and there is no back ranked in the top-20 more than once.

So while his TD production and his yards PER TOUCH are likely to decline, I would still contend Jones-Drew will push for top-12 fantasy numbers because...HIS OVERALL TOUCHES SHOULD INCREASE.

Take a look at the split between Jones-Drew and Taylor in each quarter of the 2006 season:

• Weeks 1-4: Taylor 82 touches vs. Jones-Drew 29 touches
• Weeks 5-9: Taylor 68 touches vs. Jones-Drew 62 touches
• Weeks 10-13: Taylor 36 touches vs. Jones-Drew 85 touches
• Weeks 14-17: Taylor 19 touches vs. Jones-Drew 85 touches

The Jaguars put more and more trust in Jones-Drew as the season wore on, and relegated Taylor to backup status in the process. Yet, because of Taylor heavy workload in the early part of the season, people look at the workloads and think Taylor is still the main back.

Use your eyes people, MJD is a special player:

To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard-nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference.

I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still ask how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD did last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.

Before I let you go, here is a list of all the RBs (since 1970) that have had a season of at least 5.0 yards per rush, 10+ TDs and 100 rushing attempts:

Positives

• Jones-Drew excelled in short yardage (60% conversion) and broke off quite a few long runs
• The Jaguars offensive scheme and offensive line are perfectly suited to run early and often
• Fred Taylor is among the worst goal-line backs in league history, and isn't a threat to catch passes in obvious passing downs

Negatives

• Fred Taylor was given a new 3-year deal and will once again garner 200+ touches if he stays healthy
• Jones-Drew is likely to show some regression in his TD-per-touch and yards-per-rush averages this year, based on historical precedent
• The passing game appears to have a great many question marks, opposing defenses may opt to keep an 8th man in the box more than we would hope

Final Thoughts

It's inarguable the Fred Taylor won't get his fair share of touches this year in Jacksonville provided he stays healthy. He's a savvy veteran with a new 3-year deal. He's a team leader and still produces solid numbers. But, there are things we can't ignore. Jones-Drew was the more explosive player. He is BY FAR a more productive short-yardage runner and, more importantly, gradually became the feature back over the course of his rookie season. At worse, expect them to split carries, but remember that Jones-Drew will catch a lot more passes. If MJD stays healthy, I don't see how he finishes outside of the top-20 and very likely pushes for top-12 honors. And if Fred Taylor misses any time to injury, MJB will be a must start difference maker week in, week out.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
Taylor still's the man there IMO. That being said Taylor will get nicked up on occasion, MJD will get all the goal line carries, and should be used in the passing game a ton. Should be a solid RB2 but Id like him more as a RB3. No chance he approaches last years #s as long as Taylor is still around.

kensat30:
Anyone who drafts MJD in the first round is insanely overly optimistic IMO. They didn't bring back Fred Taylor at $5 mil per to ride the pine for 75% of the game. They brought him back to share in one of the most dangerous RBBCs in the league. I feel the share will be very equal in terms of playing time. And bottomline, while MJD is very talented, I think he is a reach in the 2nd round, and he only starts to be worth the risk in the 3rd or even the 4th (where you won't find him).

Just like Addai last year, MJD owners will find out that when there is an established vet on the team, coaches are very reluctant to "feature" the younger guy when what they have is working. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And Jacksonvile won't just sit Fred Taylor. The guy is a career 4.6 runner and along with MJD also rushed for 5+ last year. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I've always viewed Fred Taylor as one of the best RBs of his generation. I even have the feeling that Taylor may end up seeing the very slight majority of the touches when all is said and done.

DROP:
That being said, MJD is a playmaker. He will score and make big plays (rushing & receiving), that's what he does. The Jags want to run the ball to control games, which is good for a 2 back system. He can be a feature back and carry the load as well, but will that be his role? Remember that his ability will make things easier on Fred because he doesn't have to carry the load all by himself, and vice versa. Which means that injuries to Taylor may be more unlikely from burnout. I know age is usually a good benchmark for declining production in RBs, but there are exceptions to the rule and the face of a franchise usually plays 1 year too many as it is, so Fred isn't going anywhere this season unless he gets hurt. If you can forecase injuries and put all your eggs in one basket based on that, fine. I just can't do that.

The real value of MJD will come on a week by week basis when he projects to have a big game, especially if Fred is out or has nagging injuries. The fact that his big plays can come at any time in any game coupled with his solid numbers when he does carry the load really make his numbers impressive when you consider his situation last season. However the fact remains that he's a backup, RBBC at best. He is going to be a hot player in most drafts, so how high can you go after him is the big question. It's not going to be like last season where only the people who saw him play realized his potential and drafted him late in the draft.

Maurice Jones-Drew Projections