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Spotlight - TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 6/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Vernon Davis is arguably the most physically gifted player to ever line up at tight end. Before you throw daggers and cry "hyperbole!" while pushing guys like Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez at me, consider that Vernon Davis was not just the most impressive TE at the 2006 Combine, he was the most impressive RECEIVER.

Measuring in at 6'3", 254 pounds, Davis ran a 4.38-yard 40 and logged an absurd 42" vertical leap at the 2006 Combine. His other metrics (33 bench press reps, 10'8" standing broad jump, 4.17 20-yard shuttle, 1.51 10-yard dash) were also among the best we've ever seen by a player of his size.

But as we've seen plenty of times before, Combine numbers and athletic feats of prowess don't necessarily translate into fantasy greatness. But understand that Davis is no Mike Mamula, He was highly productive as a pass catcher at the University of Maryland, averaging 17.1 yards per reception during his senior campaign (51 receptions for 871 yards and six touchdowns).

In his first professional game, Davis made his presence felt...5 receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy leaguers that took a flier on the rookie were drooling. Unfortunately, a bruised hip and then a broken leg sidelined Davis until Week Eleven. Upon his return, Davis struggled to make an impact for a few weeks; netting two catches for 31 yards in three games (Weeks 11-13). But over the final month of the season, once Davis felt comfortable with the playbook and was 100% healthy, we caught a glimpse of what's to come:

• 13 receptions
• 196 yards
• 15.1 yards per reception
• 2 TDs

Pro rate those numbers over a full 16-game schedule:

• 52 receptions
• 784 yards
• 15.1 yards per reception
• 8 TDs
• 126 fantasy points

Those numbers would've equated to a 2^nd place fantasy TE finish last year and would've been no worse than TE4 over the last five seasons.

So am I projecting Davis as a top-3 fantasy tight end, someone that would represent one of THE steals of the 2007 fantasy draft?..NOT EXACTLY.

You see, Davis is a product of one of the league's least compelling passing attacks. The 49ers threw for a whopping 2,890 yards and 16 TDs last year, ranking just 29^th and 26^th in the NFL, respectively. And that was WITH Norv Turner calling the plays. This year, while QB Alex Smith should show further improvement, he has the unproven Jim Hostler calling the plays. And the team has a young and promising defense to go along with the highest-paid RB in the league. A strong rushing attack and a budding young defense hardly portend a massive need to increase Alex Smith's passing attempts.

I believe, all things being equal, Vernon Davis could be a top-3 fantasy TE. Yet, he's on a team in a system that probably limits his upside. If you haircut last year's final month and normalize it for the inevitable goose egg or two, you get a tight end that should comfortably finish among the league's top 10; which is about in line with where he'll be drafted.

Positives

• Vernon Davis has unparalleled physical ability; he's as fast and fluid as a wide receiver but is built like a defensive end
• The league's other great fantasy TEs are generally associated with a productive RB (e.g., Gates/Tomlinson, Gonzalez/Johnson) and Frank Gore is among the league's most productive runners
• Davis should be the 49ers 1st or 2nd most targeted option in the passing attack

Negatives

• The 49ers were among the worst passing offenses in the league last year, and have lost Norv Turner from the equation
• Davis' athleticism and strong final month may lead to overheated expectations this year; someone in your league may draft him a round or two before you should slot him
• Although the 49ers made changes to the offensive line, it stands to reason Davis may be called upon to block a lot if the line can't stop opposing pass rushers

Final Thoughts

Vernon Davis has top-3 talent, but is in a bottom-10 situation. He COULD be Alex Smith's safety valve much in the way Kellen Winslow and Antonio Gates have been for their respective franchises. Yet, this is a team that wants to win by running the ball and playing solid defense. Unless you assume the 49ers will dramatically alter their run/pass ratio; Davis isn't going to see enough targets to deliver top -3 fantasy production. If you can draft Davis with an eye toward top-10 production, he represents a nice upside pick. Otherwise, let someone else chase him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

PahtyTom:
Adding DJax to the mix will be huge if he stays on the field. With a very strong running game and an improving QB, the future looks very bright for Davis. He, IMO, is the most physically gifted TE the NFL has ever seen and is now in a great situation also.

ILUVBEER99:
I think he'll be a top 3 TE this season. Only thing stopping everyone in FF land from having him on their radar is that he got hurt early during his rookie year and didn't get to show the improvement that will come this season.

CalBear:
Davis plays for a team with a horrendous passing offense (#29 in 2006), which is one thing that will limit his ability to produce big fantasy numbers. The other things are that his hands and his routes are not very good. Pretty much all he has is speed and size, which makes some folks salivate over him, but in reality will not be enough to lift him above the middle tier of TEs.

Vernon Davis Projections