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Spotlight - TE Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Posted on 8/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Owen Daniels is one of many 2nd tier fantasy tight ends that, under optimal conditions, could emerge as a top-10 fantasy tight end. As a rookie, Daniel caught 34 passes for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns, good enough for a 14th place finish. While those might not seem like eye-popping numbers, consider how they compare to other luminescent tight ends during their rookie seasons:

• Todd Heap -- 16 recs for 206 yards and 1 TD
• Tony Gonzalez -- 33 recs for 368 yards and 2 TDs
• Chris Cooley -- 37 recs for 314 yards and 6 TDs
• Antonio Gates -- 24 recs for 389 yards and 2 TDs

Any way you slice it, Daniels' rookie numbers compare favorably against the best players at his position. So what fantasy owners must ask themselves is whether Daniels' situation has changed materially in 2007 such that we should expect anything other than the continued improvement a player shows in his 2nd NFL season.

1) A new QB in town -- Matt Schaub was acquired to replace David Carr and has been handed a big contract along with the keys to the franchise. Schaub's NFL playing experience is too limited to say whether he favors the tight end, but he did cut his teeth in a Falcons offense that had Alge Crumpler; so obviously Schaub knows the value of an athletic pass-catcher at the position. If Schaub lives up to expectations, the entire passing game should benefit, which in turn means more targets and productivity for all Texans' pass catchers.

2) A "new" OC in town -- Mike Sherman served as a special assistant last year but has no assumed full-time OC duties with the departure of Troy Calhoun. Sherman is an experience NFL play caller (unlike Calhoun) and made liberal use of his tight ends while in Green Bay (i.e., Mark Chmura and Bubba Franks).

3) A new RB in town -- Ahman Green has been brought aboard to stabilize a running game that simply wasn't effective at times last year. Green may not be in his prime, but if healthy he's an upgrade to be sure. With a more consistent running game, the offense should be put in more advantageous situations on 3rd down (i.e., 3rd and short versus 3rd and long), which should allow more aggressive downfield passing

4) Still no new WR2 in town -- The Eric Moulds experiment lasted one season, and now the Texans appear to be searching in vain for a complementary WR to pair with Andre Johnson. Kevin Walter has been penciled in at WR2 but has done little in his career or training camp to suggest he'll warrant a lot of targets. The Texans are so desperate they've brought in 37-year old Keenan McCardell for a look and reportedly have interest in Packers castoff Robert Ferguson. The bottom line is that neither Walter nor McCardell nor Ferguson would be a real challenge for taking targets away from Daniels.

Positives

• Daniels' rookie numbers compare favorably to the best tight ends in the league
• As a former Wisconsin Badger, Daniels' is a true two-way tight end and thus should be on the field in all downs and distances
• The additions of Ahman Green and Matt Schaub should help improve the offense, allowing more targets, sustained drives and more red zone targets for Daniels and the other offensive cogs

Negatives

• The Texans offense remains a question mark, particularly on the offensive line
• While a red zone threat, Daniels doesn't have natural open field ability that the elite TEs possess
• Daniels' prowess as a blocker may require him to stay in and pass protect if the line doesn't show improvement

Final Thoughts

Owen Daniels isn't an explosive playmaker in the vein of Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates. But neither are Jason Witten or Dallas Clark yet they get the job done. There is still a place at the fantasy table for more traditional tight ends who aren't built like wide receivers. Daniels rookie numbers were quite impressive and his situation remains advantageous. With no proven WR2 on the Texans roster and two pass-happy offensive coaches in charge, it stands to reason Daniels should see as many, if not more targets in 2007. That means he should slot in the bottom half of the top-12 with modest upside beyond that if the Texans passing game improves by leaps and bounds. Daniels doesn't have a ton of upside at his current ADP, but he doesn't have a lot of downside either. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

smackdaddies:
From a Badger Homer, take this for what it is worth.

OD played for a Barry Alverez coached team - far more conservative than Bret B. is now. I suspect OD, with his good hands and knowledge of the game would of put up far better numbers in college with BB as his head coach. Alverez always went with the blocking TE first - often a 3rd guard instead of a TE. Look what BB has done with a converted DE - Travis Beckem - 61 catches his first year in the postion and barely even played the first couple of games.

Having said that, I agree with the FGuy's view of the Texans. New, basically untested qb, limited offensive weapons, and an O line that is suspect. That leads to basically the same result as last year with Carr pitching the ball. Owens will basically be a #2TE. Dont take him too early

SSOG:
I'm a big Owen Daniels fan. He produced very solid numbers (not just aggregate numbers, but most importantly, per-play numbers as well) as a rookie at a position where rookies historically struggle to produce very solid numbers. While I think Houston's offense is going to hold him back, I think he's really going to turn a lot of heads this year in redraft, and is going to make a lot of dynasty owners ecstatic (because talent always wins out over situation in Dynasty). Most importantly, he's playing for a head coach (Kubiak) who, as an offensive coordinator, had a reputation for relying HEAVILY on his receiving TE. A standout talent in an offensive system that has historically emphasized his position? Sounds like a winner to me.

Pictus Cat:
The Texans should be in a lot of passing situations. Their primary receiver should be doubled and the QB should be looking for a lifeline. Add in a favorable schedule for TE, a QB from a prior team with a strong TE use, and a team looking for a its second receiving option.

Owen Daniels Projections