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Spotlight - QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

The 2006 season was a bit all over the map for the Denver Broncos. The team started 5-1 and seemed primed for a deep playoff run. That was followed by a 2-5 stretch that resulted in a quarterback change and a retooling reminiscent of a team looking to rebuild. The changing of the guard saw the end of the Jake Plummer era and the start of the Jay Cutler regime, and some Broncos fans openly questioned if that was the right move given that the team was still in the playoff hunt. Cutler went 2-3 in his five starts with the Broncos ultimately missing out on the playoffs, but there were plenty of signs of good things to come in the future.

Cutler joins several other quarterbacks entering the season as a second year starter with limited experience including Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, Tarvaris Jackson, and Tony Romo. This off-season has seen much debate over which of those players will have the best 2007 season and NFL career. Cutler did well enough from a fantasy perspective that many fantasy football players are eager to draft him and expect great production based on the flashes he showed last year.

In his five games, Cutler posted 1,001 passing yards and nine touchdowns, which for those that like to extrapolate, works out to 3,200 yards and 29 TD passes over a 16-game season. Of course, people should consider that it was such a small sample size and that all of those games came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pass defense including three of the Bottom Five teams.

The Denver offense has undergone a major metamorphosis since this time last year. Javon Walker returns for his second season with the Broncos. But this time around the second receiver could be Brandon Marshall with 37-year-old Rod Smith recovering from a hip injury. Denver also signed former Colt Brandon Stokley, who is recovering from major knee surgery. Cutler's favorite red zone target from last season, Tony Scheffler, also finds himself rehabbing a broken foot. The team shelled out big money to sign former Patriot Daniel Graham, and he could fill more of a receiving role than he did in New England. And now Travis Henry will be leading the ground attack.

Walker did not fare anywhere near as well with Cutler as he did with Plummer. Perhaps it was youth and inexperience, but Walker and Cutler will need to develop better chemistry and get on the same page for Cutler to sustain high passing totals. Cutler has received acclaim for throwing a top-notch deep ball and hitting receivers on over the top routes, and that should mesh nicely with Walker once they iron out the wrinkles.

Another potential cause for concern is that the Broncos rushing totals were down across the board last season including a team rushing TD total cut by just over 50% (from 25 to 12). Denver has shown for over a decade that their bread and butter is running the football, and one would expect a return to the upper echelon in terms of running production. That may or may not impact Cutler's passing numbers depending on how often and in what situations the team plans on running the football.

The Denver offense averaged 3,587 passing yards, 22 passing TD, and 17 interceptions per year from 2001-2005. The question becomes whether Cutler should be expected to perform better, worse, or the same as that average. The 2006 team dropped to 2,995 passing yards and 20 passing TD. As another basis for comparison, Brian Griese totaled 3,032 passing yards, 14 passing TD, and 14 interceptions in his first full year as a starter (in 14 games played).

Positives

• Cutler played very well in limited action last year and excelled at passing the ball into the end zone. He also took care of the football and made sound decisions.
• Denver over the years has posted several 4,000-yard passing seasons with some years in the upper 20s in terms of passing touchdowns.
• Many Cutler supporters feel he is the most talented Denver quarterback since John Elway and that Cutler is much more talented than the QBs that put up solid numbers since then.

Negatives

• Second year starting quarterbacks sometimes struggle to maintain their ppg numbers from their first year and Cutler could have difficulty producing TDs at the rate he did in 2006.
• The Broncos currently have several receiving threats hampered with injuries. That may not have been as big a deal for a veteran QB, but having key players missing reps in camp could cause the passing game to sputter to start the season.
• Denver has made its mark on its highly productive rushing attack. With an improved defense, the team may elect to play more of a ball control style and get conservative in the passing game.

Final Thoughts

Some people have projected Cutler potentially making a run at the Top Five quarterbacks this season and while there is a slight chance that that could happen, at this stage that may be wishful thinking. Given that there is a very narrow scoring bandwidth most years in terms of middle tier QB production, Cutler could rank anywhere from the bottom of the Top 10 to as low as the 20th QB on the season with only a small variation in his scoring. Last year, there was about a 1.5 point per game scoring difference from the #10 to #19 ranked quarterbacks at the end of the year. Cutler seems destined to rank somewhere in that group of quarterbacks. A few more yards here and there or even two more TD (rushing or passing) could shoot him up near the top of that set of QB.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

SSOG:
Denver managed to build huge leads and then kill clock with the running game in 2005, but they still put up 3373 passing yards. Historically speaking, under Shanahan, Denver is more likely to pass for more than 4,000 yards (4 times, or 33% of the time)) than it is to pass for under 3300 yards (just twice, including last season).

Denver's two sub-3300 passing seasons came in a year when the defense was ranked 8th in points allowed (tied for its fourth-best finish) and in a season where its defense was 21st in points allowed (its second worst finish). Granted, I don't think Cutler is in for a 4,000 yard season here, but I think he has far too many weapons (including the incredible Javon Walker) for Denver to repeat its brutal 3,000 yard performance from last year.

By the way, here are all of Denver's passing TD totals under Shanahan- 27, 26, 27, 32, 16, 28, 26, 21, 19, 27, 18, 20. The only time Denver has finished below 20 TDs was in 1999 (after Elway retired), in 2003 (when Buerlein and Kanell started a large chunk of the season), and in 2005 (which, I'm assuming, is the season you expect next year to most resemble).

I think Cutler is far too talented, and Denver's WRs/TEs are far too talented, for Shanahan to relegate the passing game to such a secondary role. He's already talking about making Javon Walker and the deep pass the focal point of the offense, and has acquired a backup QB in Patrick Ramsey who has backed up that claim (Ramsey's biggest selling point was his big arm, perfect for all the deep passes Denver wants to work back into its playbook). I would project more along the lines of 3400 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs- nothing to set the world on fire, no, but borderline QB1 / solid QB2 numbers. Remember, even in 2005 (which, again, is the season I assume you expect next year will resemble), Jake Plummer finished as QB11.

Tubalcane:
While Cutler may throw a lot of TD's, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT's . I think it's imperative that you consider this as well. He's a gun slinger with a cannon arm...he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don't think he's played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I'm not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not. I'm sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I'm a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD's, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD's; but I don't think he'll throw less than 20 INT's this year.

rzrback77:
ay Cutler is another guy who is difficult for me to project. Denver has had two over 4,000 yard passing seasons in the previous five years. The last two have been less though, with 3,373 yards in 05 and 2,995 in 06. I am leaning to more of the latter as I expect Rod Smith to continue to decline and I'm not yet sold on Brandon Marshall. Cutler seemed to have a good connection with Scheffler, but with his injury and the addition of Daniel Graham, that connection may be less solid. I also think that Shannahan has been disappointed in the effectiveness of the running game and will look to establish that momre this year with Henry and allow Jay Cutler to grow into the leadership role. Cutler averaged 27 pass attempts and 200 yards per game in his five games last year after he took over for Plummer. The Broncos averaged 28 rush attempts in those same five games, with a low of 23 in the last game of the year.

Jay Cutler Projections