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Spotlight - WR Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

The Philadelphia Eagles have brought in yet another wide receiver in 2006. First came the one and only Terrell Owens in 2004, and everyone in Philadelphia (and beyond) knows how that story went. Last season the Eagles decided to bring in a lesser name to start opposite WR Reggie Brown, acquiring Donte Stallworth just weeks before the start of the season. Stallworth performed well enough for Philadelphia, which was one of the reasons that he is now in New England.

So enter 2007 and the Eagles once again added a receiver, this time via free agency. Former St. Louis Ram Kevin Curtis comes in to the Delaware Valley as a starting wide receiver for the Eagles, and once again the new face is lined up on the opposite side of Reggie Brown. Curtis brings both big play speed and also quickness to the Eagles, elements that were lacking in the Philadelphia interpretation of the West Coast Offense.

As with all the new receivers for the Eagles in the "post T.O. era", questions immediately come up with how they will be integrated into the system. The Eagles and starting QB Donovan McNabb love to move the ball as best as they can, with either big plays or by moving the chains, and mostly through the air. The issue that concerns fantasy owners is that McNabb's favorite receiver is whoever gets open first. The Eagles started last season with five games where the leading receiver was never the same person, validating that they like to share the wealth of passing yardage.

Curtis gets a great opportunity by coming to Philadelphia. He instantly becomes a starting WR, something that would have taken much more time with both Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce ahead of him in St. Louis. This is a concern about Curtis as there is not even one, let alone two, Pro Bowl caliber wideouts on the Eagles. Curtis will have to rely on his own skills to beat defenses and get open rather than in St. Louis where the defense would be more concerned about other receiving talent.

Positives

• Curtis is a speed merchant, and he brings a deep strike threat immediately to the Eagles
• Donte Stallworth became an Eagle last August but quickly learned and managed to put up respectable numbers. This shows that a new veteran to the Philadelphia system can come in and produce right away
• The Eagles were one of the best teams at creating big plays in the passing game. Curtis' speed and skill set should lend itself well to that type of play calling
• Curtis has excellent hands, catching over 65% of his career targets
• Donte Stallworth was widely regarded as the second starting WR last year, yet he managed to post 725 yards and five touchdowns in less than a full slate of games (11, not including a meaningless Week 17). If Curtis can produce at that level, a Top 20 finish is highly probable

Negatives

• Curtis has never been higher than #3 on the depth chart at the beginning of a season
• Philadelphia has a different pecking order for targets than most teams. The WRs are no better than the second, and possibly third, in targets after RB Brian Westbrook and TE L.J. Smith
• The Eagles run a different offense, something that Curtis must learn and adapt to quickly to be productive
• Despite his speed, Curtis has averaged under 14 yards per catch every season, and only seven of his 40 catches in 2006 were for over 20 yards

Final Thoughts

Kevin Curtis has a wide range of possibilities for the 2007 season. He could struggle to pick up the Eagles' offense, or he could jump right in and pick up where Donte Stallworth left off. Stallworth put up five touchdowns and over 700 yards in just 11 games. Curtis could possibly match or exceed that level of productivity and put up solid fantasy numbers.

The issue I have with projecting Curtis is that I cannot make all the numbers work for the Eagles and also have him pushing into the Top 20 WRs for 2007. I see that Westbrook will get his 600-700 yards, L.J. Smith will be in that same neighborhood at about 600, and then Reggie Brown should be in the 900-1,000 yard area. That's about 2,200 yards already accounted for by three players, and I do not see the Eagles with many yards beyond 4,000. So, if Curtis is to get say 900 yards and get close to both Reggie Brown's predictions and also about where Stallworth would have produced in a full season, there just aren't that many yards left over for the rest of the team. Adding 900 yards for Curtis would give four players (Smith, Curtis, Westbrook and Brown) over 3,000 yards combined, or 75% of 4,000+ yards.

Something has to give with these projections, and I won't just artificially inflate the results for the team to make it all work. The Eagles should get 4,000 yards passing, but those four players should be closer to 65-70% of the total team yards, so I have to knock Curtis down some. I believe the potential is there, but given the style of offense that the Eagles run I have to trim somewhere. Therefore my predictions for Kevin Curtis for 2007 are 57 catches, 800 yards and five touchdowns. That would put him right in the area of the better fantasy WR3's from 2006.

Curtis is a great value in leagues where you do not have to pick a starting lineup. I fully expect for him to have several stellar weeks where he scores a touchdown and racks up big yardage. However, I also see several games where he does not produce much at all. Curtis has a lot of value for 2007 in all kinds of leagues, but setting your lineup for Curtis may keep you up all night.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

TheLastDispatch:
Curtis should be a good fit in Philly, but the Eagles spread it around too much for Curtis to be an impact fantasy player. At best, he's option #4 behind Westbrook, Smith, and Brown. He'll likely be too inconsistent to rely on and will have a very limited ceiling.

shadyridr:
I loved this signing by Philly. I think Curtis is very talented. But despite moving to a pass heavy offense I dont expect huge #s from him. He could be a solid WR4. Simple fact is hes learning a new system on a new team, he is the 4th option in the passing game behind Westbrook, Brown, and Smith, and he plays opposite a TD monster in Brown.

Bull Dozier:
I can't see how he'll do any worse than Stallworth did last year, catch wise. With the games that McNabb played the entire game (which was only five), Stallworth went 21-443-3. Over 16 games that projects out to 67-1418-10. I don't see Curtis getting 21 ypc, but I can see him getting that many receptions. If Curtis just ups his ypc to 15, which I think is reasonable as McNabb's deep threat, I see him at 67-1005-8.

rzrback77:
Kevin Curtis is a reliable receiver that catches the ball. And he has speed. He will be a great fit in the Philadelphia offense. Let's look at his previous stats in St Louis:

03 - rookie year didn't play much
04 - 48 targets 32 catches (66.7%) 421 yds and 2 TDs
05 - 97 targets 60 catches (61.9%) 801 yds and 6 TDs
06 - 56 targets 40 catches (71.4%) 479 yds and 4 TDs

His reception percentage is outstanding (66.0% career). It will go down in Philly because Bulger is accurate and McNabb is not, but his targets will be increased more than enough to make up for the slight decrease. I think that he will rival Brown as McNabb's number one target. I understand that it is sometimes difficult to be productive in the first year in a new system, but the WRs at Philly have had recent success. TO was outstanding in his first year there and Stallworth did pretty well also. Neither one of them is known as a "gym rat" type, but they both relied on their athleticism to make plays. Curtis will undoubtedly work harder than that pair and he has good athleticism as well. I like the chances for Curtis in 07.

Kevin Curtis Projections