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Spotlight - QB Daunte Culpepper, Oakland Raiders

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Sometimes timing is everything. Had I penned this analysis a month ago, it would've read QUITE differently and would've been absolutely irrelevant by now. You see, a month ago the Raiders situation was convoluted, but fantasy owners had a clear path of action:

• Raiders draft JaMarcus Russell 1st overall
• The team brings in journeyman Josh McCown to hold down the fort (and use his mobility to run for his life) for as long as it takes to get Russell ready
• Halfway through the season, effectively eliminated from playoff contention, the "Russell Era" begins in earnest in Oakland

So much for the clear path.

At the time I write this, JaMarcus Russell continues to hold out and his agent appears far apart with Al Davis and the Raiders front office. With each passing day, it becomes much less likely that Russell will see the field this year, regardless of the Raiders W-L record. New HC Lane Kiffin is building for the future and won't risk the chemistry of his team for the sake of putting the youngster in if he's not ready; particularly if the offensive line can't keep him healthy.

In response to Russell's hold out, and perhaps the uninspiring prospect of going with Josh McCown or Andrew Walter for a full season, the Raiders surprised many by signing Daunte Culpepper to a one-year deal. The one-year deal may seem odd at first blush, but I think it makes a lot of sense for both sides. The Raiders have no interest in keeping Culpepper for the long haul, they'll have too much money invested in Russell to justify that expense. And Culpepper has a clear interest in being an NFL starter, which he realizes isn't going to happen in Oakland beyond 2007.

What does this all mean for McCown? Some of our message board people seem to think McCown will shock the world and still start for most of the season. Respectfully, I think they're dead wrong. McCown, for all of his athleticism, was playing wide receiver for Detroit before going to Oakland this offseason. That's the kind of veteran who worries about making the final roster, not outplaying Daunte Culpepper. If Andrew Walter (who has struggled in the early part of camp) can show enough promise, he will probably end up the QB3 which will leave McCown searching Craigslist for job placement services.

Let's say Culpepper does start at least a handful of games; what can fantasy owners expect from him?

First and foremost, answering that question is as much about the status of his knee as anything else. People are quick to dismiss just how phenomenally productive Culpepper has been in his career. Yes, his time in Miami was short lived and mishandled. And yes, the new coaches wanted to go in another direction. But that doesn't obviate Culpepper's skill set, accomplishments or elite ability. The simple fact is he shouldn't have returned to the field as quickly as he did. His knee needed more time to rehab and, he needed to get in better shape as a result.

Can we say for sure whether Culpepper is 100% healthy?
I feel a lot better about it now that he's had to clear a rigorous physical from Raiders team doctors. What team is going to invest in Culpepper at this point without putting his knee through the paces? Also, if we're to track the normal progression of knee injuries, this is the season (Year Two) when Culpepper should have his full range of mobility AND the confidence to test his knee.

But what about that offensive line?
If you were to ask the average NFL fan to name the league's worst offensive line, I'm betting more would say Houston than Oakland; but last year they would've been dead wrong. The Raiders gave up an astounding 72 sacks last season and looked absolutely lost. Changing the fortunes on the front line will be THE primary goal for Kiffin and his new coaches. There remains much work to be done before we can project improvement. Robert Gallery, the "franchise" tackle is being moved to guard. Young Kevin Boothe is competing with veteran Cooper Carlisle. Boothe may ultimately end up at right tackle. At left tackle Barry Sims seems secure, but how good is he? There are more questions than answers right now, and that doesn't bode well for ANY quarterback, much less one that was sacked 21 times in four games.

Do the Raiders have weapons?
OK, this is where I see a ray of light for Culpepper or whoever else lines up under center. Sure, the team let Randy Moss walk. And yes, Mike Williams was a miserable failure in Detroit. But you know what? I think this team was GROSSLY mishandled last year and that the Raiders actually have some solid offensive pieces in place already.

• Jerry Porter -- No longer persona non grata, getting rave reviews in camp
• Ron Curry -- Former basketball star, has the chance to shine if he can stay healthy
• Mike Williams -- A long shot in some people's eyes, but don't forget he caught 30 (yes, 30) TDs while playing under Lane Kiffin at USC
• Zach Miller -- The rookie tight end has soft hands and already knows how to run NFL-caliber routes

Is this the best receiving corps in the league? NO, of course not. But it's also hardly a liability for someone of Culpepper's caliber.

OK, what can fantasy owners expect from JaMarcus Russell when he finally sees the field?
Russell will have to adjust to the challenges of the NFL game like any other young signal caller. He'll have to fail before he can succeed. Even if he plays the final half of the season (unlikely in my estimation), you can almost be sure he'll throw more INTs than touchdowns, and complete much less than 60% of his passes. While Russell is a good athlete, he's not a scrambler like Vince Young who can gain fantasy relevance with his legs in spite of his subpar passing. Russell's fantasy future is with his arm, don't forget that.

Positives

• Culpepper produced the single best QB fantasy season in NFL history (2004) with 4,717 yards passing, 39 TDs, 11 Ints, 406 yards rushing and 2 rushing TDs
• Culpepper is accurate (64.2% career completion rate), strong-armed (7.7 yards per career attempt), is hard to bring down (6'4", 240 pounds) and is an effective runner (5+ yards per career rush, 30 rushing TDs)
• The Raiders offensive weapons are better than many realize

Negatives

• He has worn out his welcome in two cities in less than 18 months, and his unceremonious departure from Miami casts doubt on his natural leadership ability
• The Raiders offensive line was woeful last year and it's unclear how much they've improved
• Culpepper could play like the 2nd coming of Joe Montana, and yet still find himself on the bench as soon as the Raiders powers-that-be decide it's time to start the JaMarcus Russell era

Final Thoughts

The last two seasons have not been particularly kind to Daunte Culpepper. Yet, the injuries that have handcuffed him appear to be mitigating somewhat. Oakland isn't the best situation, and it shouldn't be confused with his best years in Minnesota; but it's also not a bare cupboard either. If Culpepper breaks camp as the Raiders starter, I can see him playing well enough to use as a spot starter or to serve as an excellent QB2 if needed.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

sholditch:
Russell should start immediately unless the Raiders are dumb enough to think they have a shot at winning this year. Of course, they could be, but considering the state of the franchise I would expect giving the fans a look at the future would be smart. It'll be a rough year as their line still isn't that great.

rzrback77:
One of the basic NFL truths is that Rookie QBs are not prepared for the speed or sophistication of the position in the NFL and that it takes a couople of years for the game to slow down for them. I just reviewed FBG's current top 13 projected QBs and all but four of them had serious playing time in their rookie season. Several of them were not even first rounders, let alone the first overall pick in the draft.

Oakland is in full-blown rebuild mode. Why would they even consider not playing Jamarcus Russell? If they had an aging veteran, I could see the desire to let him play a game or three and teach Russell by example. But, when I look at the Oakland QB options, there is Andrew Walter and Josh McCown. Walter has played in 13 games and all his career passes were thrown in the disastrous season that was Oakland's worst ever for their offense. He completed 53.3% of his passes for 6.1 ypa and had 3 TDs and 13 ints. He was sacked repeatedly and exhibited no mobility. I can't believe that he will even make it on the roster. Josh McCown has a 57.8% completion rate with a career 6.3 ypa, but has 25 TDs and 29 ints. He has decent mobility, but has started only seven games since 2004 and did not throw a single pass last year for Detroit. Even venturing to compare his athleticism with Jamarcus Russell is laughable.

Russell will likely struggle mightily, but so would McCown and Russell drafted 1st overall is obviously the franchise QB for the Raiders. Get him involved in training camp early and let him know he's starting. Put your confidence in him and watch him grow into the leadership role. There sure are lots of candidates for nice QB2 production available near the end of the draft this year.

Groovus:
I'll stick with my original read above, inserting Culpepper into the depth chart ahead of Russell, but still behind McCown for now. There'll probably be a "competition" between Culpepper and McCown for who the starter is opening day. I'll say it'll be McCown until I see something from Duante.

The only thing really worth noting is that Raider QBs are to be avoided, unless you're in a dynasty thing, then you could think about Russell (I wouldn't, but what the heck).

This offense could really be as bad as it was last year - I'll await the preseason games to see if the turnstyle offensive line has improved before finalizing judgment.

GordonGekko:
Culpepper will start.

I'd give him 3000 yards, 20 TDs and 20 INTs for the season.

I can see Russell making his way into games starting at Week 12 and beyond.

McCown rolls the No#2 job and Walter gets hurt. Maybe Walter won't get hurt for real, but I think Davis will IR him so he can get paid and get a chance next year as a backup. For all intents and purposes, I think Davis recognizes Walter was sent to the slaughter last year and will remember the kid took a pounding and kept getting back up. Davis is unusually loyal to certain players (James Jett is a brutal example) and I think Walter sticking around thus far is an indicator that Davis likes the kid. He has to like him, because he didn't show all that much for him to be kept. To be fair, Walter does have the physical makeup to be a good NFL QB. Unfortunately, and unlike the 49ers, Davis won't invest in a Trent Dilfer type veteran QB to help his young QBs. Culpepper isn't going to take Russell under his wing. I don't think McCown or Walter had the guidance themselves to help the kid.

Sadly enough, the Raiders need a guy like Vince Evans (crafty veteran who doesn't rock the boat and knows his role) more than they need the McCown/Walter two headed backup monster.

Daunte Culpepper Projections