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Spotlight - TE Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Of all the fantasy football evaluations this season, none is as perplexing as what to make of Alge Crumpler's prospects for the upcoming year. Why? Because until now, Crumpler was an amazingly consistent fantasy performer. Alge Crumpler has been selected to four straight Pro-Bowls and has produced excellent statistics in each of the last three seasons. Until now, he could be counted on to offer production equal to his draft spot, just behind the top tight ends available.

This season was looking to be more of the same for Crumpler. He would be the top receiving threat in an offense that utilized his ample talents. He would benefit from a dearth of decent receivers around him and a quarterback that looked to him often in the passing game.

All of this changed when Falcons quarterback Michael Vick (allegedly) decided to get involved in some shady off-the-field activities that will most likely prevent him from playing in 2007. Suddenly, all bets are off with regard to the Falcons passing game.

Now, determining Crumpler's prospects with a new quarterback (Joey Harrington) under center and a new coach (Bobby Petrino) calling the shots is akin to trying to read a compass in the dead of night while standing on your head. In other words, what was previously an easily determined trend is now completely and totally indecipherable.

The good news is that Alge Crumpler has as much physical talent as any tight end in the league. He is able to catch passes all over the field and produce excellent returns after the catch. His career 13.8 yards per reception shows that he has been more then just a safety outlet. He finds the end zone often and excels in pass-protection, keeping him on the field for almost every offensive snap. As a result, Crumpler's 2007 fantasy prospects may well fall in line with his recent production. The bad news is that with a new, generally mediocre quarterback and an unproven coach, all of his undeniable ability and talent may not amount to much when all is said and done.

Positives

• Remarkably consistent production over the years, including improvement as a pass catcher each season
• Lack of competition for targets, especially now that relied upon outlet Warrick Dunn is sidelined
• Excellent blocking ability, meaning Crumpler is on the field for most offensive downs thus increasing his total opportunities to catch the ball
• Proven track record as a reliable option; if no other receivers step up in training camp, Crumpler is likely to be looked to often in the passing game

Negatives

• New quarterback, new coach, and new system mean that Crumpler is essentially starting fresh in the offense. There is no guarantee that past performance will lead to future success
• Lack of other viable receiving options is often a good thing, but could also lead to Crumpler being double-teamed regularly
• Improvements on defense by the other teams in the NFC South could have an adverse affect on Crumpler's performance, thus minimizing his value relative to his draft position

Final Thoughts

Alge Crumpler is undoubtedly one of the best pass catching tight ends in the NFL. Without question, he belongs in the conversation with Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow, and Jeremy Shockey when discussing the most versatile and most effective tight ends in the game today. That said, the vast disruption of the circumstances that have led to Crumpler being so productive are worth acknowledging and trying to predict how he will respond to them is virtually impossible.

Crumpler could easily maintain his place among the top producing tight ends in the league or just as easily erode in to a middle-of-the-road option at the position. If he presents himself for value on draft day after a handful of tight ends have been selected, do not hesitate to choose Alge Crumpler. Conversely, thinking outright that he is worth a high selection could be setting your team up for significant disappointment.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
I expect a slight downward tick in his numbers this year due to the power running attack thats going to be employed. But hes still a top notch TE1 and Vick loves him.

rzrback77:
Alge Crumpler has been a steady peformer at TE for the Atlanta Falcons for the past six seasons. He played in all 16 games all but one year and he played 14 that season. He has been particularly effective near the goal line scoring six, five, and eight TDs the past three seasons. Now for the bad news. He has caught only 57% of his targets in the past five years, a testimony to Mr. Vick's accuracy. He is coming off knee surgery that was performed in April, granted it was minor and he is scheduled to be back for training camp, but at 6-2 and 265, mobility was not his greatest asset and it should be reduced. Now for the worse news, I expect that both Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood to be used out of the backfield as receiving options much more than in previous years. In addition the Falcons have Joe Horn so I expect their WRs to show some improvement also. Therefore, I expect Crumpler's targets to shrink. Crumpler has finished 5th, 4th, 5th, and 2nd among TEs in the past four years, so his ADP may sneak up a little. I paricularly do not like Crumpler is ppr leagues, as he tends to lower number of catches and more TDs.

Jeff Pasquino, FBG Staff:
I'm a big fan of TEs that are favorite targets, especially ones that have little to offer at WR. I agree that Horn will help Atlanta, but not as much as one would think, and also not in the same capacity as some would expect. I called for Horn to go to ATL as he's a good vet WR and can lead by example and teach the young WRs how to play in the NFL - something Horn could do - once upon a time. Now, we're talking about Crump here, and he will be the #1 target once again for Vick. As rzr brought up, Crump had a bad reception %age - but that wasn't Vick's fault - really. I had Crump (and Vick) in a few leagues in 2006, and I screamed at the TV more than I care to admit. Try having your fantasy QB throw to your fantasy TE and see the 10 yard TD fall incomplete because your TE drops it. That's 10+ points for those of you scoring at home (insert joke here). Don't take my word for his drops - just go to the game logs and commentary from last year:

Alge Crumpler Projections