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Spotlight - WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

Posted on 8/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Guys like Jerricho Cotchery make it hard to discount the once-popular "3rd year breakout" theory that many people still ascribe to. While other Footballguys like Chase Stuart and Doug Drinen have resoundingly debunked the idea that most receivers have their big breakout in Year 3, Cotchery certainly did, but not because of mythic learning curve, but because he finally got a chance to play.

• 82 receptions
• 961 yards
• 11.7 yards per reception
• 6 TDs
• WR23 fantasy ranking

While Cotchery didn't have too many monster games, he did give fantasy owners consistency week in, week out:

• 10 games with 5+ receptions
• 7 games with either 100 yards or a TD
• 10 games with 50+ yards

Expect more of the same this year from the young receiver out of N.C. State. But the real question fantasy owners want to know is, can Cotchery overtake Laveranues Coles as the Jets lead receiver? My initial instict is to say "NO" because Coles also had a solid year (91 receptions for 1,098 yards and 6 TDs) and has a much longer, proven track record. But were I to make an argument for Cotchery,  it would center around the following stats:

• Receptions per target: Cotchery converted 65% of his targets into catches; putting him among the league's upper echelon. That compares favorable to Coles' 60% conversion rate
• TDs per target: Cotchery has as many TDs (6) in 20% less targets
• Age and experience: Cotchery is only 25 and has only one season as a starter. He should be on an upward trajectory for another few seasons, whereas Coles has plateaued

The Jets are in good hand with Chad Pennington, who surprised everyone with a healthy season. He's very accurate and also has the wherewithal not to lock onto one receiver play after play. The offensive line has the makings of a very solid unit (as long as they settle the Pete Kendall situation) and, best of all, there are no WRs on the roster that should reasonably challenge Coles and Cotchery for targets.

Positives

• Cotchery is young, and showed excellent consistency in his first year as a starter
• The Jets offense is balanced, and Chad Pennington is accurate and sure to look at his top two receivers early and often
• Cotchery is sure handed, and one of the better route runners in the AFC already

Negatives

• The Jets aren't going to sling the ball around if they have any control over it, and the addition of RB Thomas Jones should mean fewer pass attempts this season
• Laveranues Coles should, probably, remain the more targeted receiver if healthy
• Cotchery isn't a burner, averaging less than 12 yards per catch

Final Thoughts

Jerricho Cotchery emerged as a solid contributor and decent fantasy WR3 last year. Given his age, it's not out of the question to expect further improvement, although I'm not sure I see him putting up top-15 numbers barring a major injury to Coles. Either way, he slots as an attractive WR3 with considerable upside, particularly in leagues that reward points for receptions (PPR).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Z-Dog:
In large part this is a question about Pennington. Obviously, he has an injury history, so I'm sort of holding my numbers for Cotchery down a bit as a risk discount. However, there are those who believe that Pennington can return to his 2002 or maybe 2004 days. If Pennington can put up something like 65% completion rating, some 7.4 ypa, and say 500 attempts (which would be a career high, but which is well within reach for a good offense) he can rack up 3700 yards, and maybe 20 TDs. If that's the Pennington we're talking about, then Cotchery is going to have a shot at 1100+ and 8-10 TDs - Donald Driver is a good comparison for his high upside.

Rovers:
People expecting a significant inprovement in the Jets running game will be disappointed. The offensive line wasn't improved at all, and in fact it may be worse as a run blocking unit. Ferguson, as scouted, is not a good run blocking LT unless he's pulling and blocking in space. Kendall, the LG is unhappy with no offer of a contract extension, and has talked about holding out, which spawned rumors he could be traded, and there is no proven backup to step in. Mangold at Center played very well, but also has a long way to go before he can be considered a good run blocker... like Ferguson, he is best when pulling. The right side of the O line returns... and they aren't very good. RT Clement was a FA who never found another interested team, and re-signed with the Jets. Moore at RG is a below average run blocker.

I like the Thomas Jones trade, but he isn't LT either, and won't fix the Jets poor run offense (not in yards as much as YPC) but may help Cotchery by taking some of the short pass coverage off of him, because Jones is a threat to catch and run.

Pennington may have a stronger arm and a better deep ball this year, but he'll never be a good home run threat in that regard either. Couple that with the fact the Jets don't have a viable deep threat WR, and the defensive coverage against the Jets will remain tight... no fear of any deep TD threats. DB's will continue to play tight. The only long TD plays the Jets had last year were because of broken tackles and a lot of YAC.

Still, I think Cotchery can improve on last year's numbers. Second year as a starter, second year in a new offense. Hard working coaches pet guy. Mangini just loves him. I see him very much like a Donald Driver.

Mapmaker:
Cotchery was finally unleashed upon the league last season and proved to the league that he truly belonged; if you missed his 71 YD TD catch and run against NE in week 2 you missed one of the most incredible plays of the entire NFL season. Over the final 10 regular season games and the 1 playoff match he amassed 98 targets, so it appears he is a definite part of the weekly JET game plan and has the confidence of not only his QB but the coaching staff as well; hes a sure handed reliable receiver who compliments Coles and the Mangini air attack.

Jerricho Cotchery Projections