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Spotlight - WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Marques Colston was, arguably, the most surprising rookie receiver in league history last year. A 7th round draft pick from Hofstra University, Colston not only made an impression but put up fantastic numbers. 

• He became only the 12th rookie WR in league history to break the 1,000-yard mark (1,038 yards)
• His 70 receptions are the 6th most by a rookie WR in league history
• His 152 fantasy points are the 12th most by a rookie WR in league history

If those numbers aren't impressive enough, consider he essentially missed four games with an ankle sprain. On a per game basis, Colston's rookie numbers are even more dominant:

• His 12.65 fantasy points per game were the 6th best total in league history, behind Charley Taylor, Randy Moss, Bob Hayes, Charlie Brown and John Jefferson.

Not bad for a guy most draft pundits dismissed as being a slow, small school project perhaps better positioned to play TE. Oops. Fantasy owners rejoiced because Colston was available on waivers in nearly all redraft leagues. If you picked him up after his solid Week One, you ended up with the 14th best fantasy receiver. It's hard to argue with that kind of value.

At 6'4", 223 pounds, Colston is built like Terrell Owens and plays with a similar style. He uses his physicality to establish position against defensive backs, and is therefore able to come down with balls that many WRs would not. Like Owens, Colston gets yards after the catch. His 376 yards after the catch ranked 7th among NFL receivers. Unlike Owens, he had good hands, dropping only 5 passes in 115 targets. He also proved to be versatile. Consider that he trailed only Jerricho Cotchery in 3rd down conversions last year (24) yet also tied for 11th with 10 receptions of 25+ yards.

His supporting cast couldn't be more advantageous. Drew Brees was the NFC's best QB last year and should only improve in his 2nd year with the team. The other receivers made big plays, but none represent a major challenge to Colston's targets. Even Joe Horn, long the Saints best pass catcher, has packed his bags and headed to Atlanta. The running game is dominant, and defenses simply won't be able to double team Colston often. As long as Colston can maintain last year's level of play, he's going to be an excellent fantasy contributor.

Positives

• The Saints offense was among the best in the NFL last year and returns largely intact
• Colston has great size, glue-like hands and is dangerous in the open field
• He had one of the best rookie seasons in league history, despite missing most of four games with a badly sprained ankle

Negatives

• Some argue that Colston's slow 2nd half was more a byproduct of defenses game planning against him versus a slow recovery from the injured ankle
• With so many other weapons on the offense, it's difficult to imagine any receiver will see enough targets to contribute each and every week
• The Saints did add Robert Meachem in the April draft and signed Eric Johnson in free agency

Final Thoughts

In my mind, this is an easy situation to analyze. Save for Colston's injury, there is nothing about his remarkable rookie season to suggest anything short of fantasy greatness in the future. As long as Drew Brees stays healthy, Colston is sure to see a ton of targets and we already know what he can do when he gets the ball thrown his way. If Colston were to simply maintain last year's level of productivity over a full 16-game schedule, you're looking at 93 receptions, 1,384 yards and 11 TDs. Personally, as a conservative person, I'm modeling a slight regression to account for a tougher schedule this year and potential improvement by some of his supporting cast. But even if Colston "only" delivers my projections (80 for 1,200 and 7 TDs), he's an awesome fantasy WR2 with considerable upside.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

laxiepoo:
Regardless of who's in the backfield or how many their defense gives up, Colston is drawing the best corner on each team, every week (and double-coverage or help over the top when the defense can afford it). Meacham or Henderson might be the benefactors in this regard.

With 9 or 10 out of 16 games against tough defenses (like Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa, Jacksonville, Philly, and Chicago), that means some stiff competition for balls.

Colston will keep defenses honest, but you gotta temper those numbers down a bit this year.

David Yudkin:
While I love the PS series, the only downfall as I see it is that discussions on one player invariably are tied in to an entire's team production. In this case, the Saints had 373/4626/27 for receiving totals last year. So to me, there are several issues (many of which I am ill prepared to address on May 1st).

- Will the Saints total passing numbers stay the same, go up, or drop
- How will the production be distributed (which IMO is a big key to how well Colston will do)
- What impact will the additions of EJohnson, Meachem, and Patten have vs the departure of Horn have on the passing game
- Will Reggie Bush get 90 receptions and will Henderson become a bigger part of the offense

Colston had 70/1038/8 in essentially 12 games last year. Projected over a full season, that works out to 93/1384/11. Based on that, I don't find it unreasonable for some people to potentially project him as the #1 fantasy WR. (He would have ranked #2 last year with those stats.) While I think that's more wishful thinking than anything else, it certainly is not in the realm of possibility (although probably unlikely).

Thom Yorke:
In my view, the lack of change in the makeup of the Saints offense suggests that his role as the favorite option for Drew Brees in the passing game will stay the same. Drew seems to love his big targets (Gates, Colston), and there is little reason to believe that Drew won't look his way an average of 8-10 times per game. Certainly, Colston won't sneak up on anyone anymore, but the secret was out on the kid by week 8 last year, when he lit up Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Cincy in successive weeks to the tune of 455/3.

Potential downside? The Saints defense should improve, making it possible that there will be less of a need to throw the ball as much as they did last year. Though injured, some may suggest that Colston's dropoff in production down the stretch was indicative of his "hitting the wall" or as a suggestion that he may have a sophomore slump.

Marques Colston Projections