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Spotlight - WR Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

They say first impressions are everything. If only that were true in fantasy football, Michael Clayton would be a must have fantasy receiver. As a rookie in 2004, Clayton produced:

80 receptions
1,193 yards
14.9 yards per reception
7 TDs
161 fantasy points

His rookie season ranks among the all-time best:

RANK	FIRST	LAST	POS	YR	AGE	EXP	G	REC	RECYD	YD/REC	RECTD	FANTPT
1	Randy	Moss	wr	1998	21	1	16	69	1313	19.03	17	233.70
2	Bill	Groman	wr	1960	24	1	14	72	1473	20.46	12	219.30
3	Charley	Taylor	wr	1964	23	1	14	53	814	15.36	5	216.90
4	Anquan	Boldin	wr	2003	23	1	16	101	1377	13.63	8	188.70
5	John	Jefferson	wr	1978	22	1	14	56	1001	17.88	13	178.80
6	Bob	Hayes	wr	1965	23	1	13	46	1003	21.80	12	177.50
7	Joey	Galloway	wr	1995	24	1	16	67	1039	15.51	7	167.30
8	Michael	Clayton	wr	2004	22	1	16	80	1193	14.91	7	164.30
9	Eric	Metcalf	wr	1989	21	1	16	54	397	7.35	4	163.00
10	Billy	Brooks	wr	1986	22	1	16	65	1131	17.40	8	161.60
11	Eddie	Brown	wr	1985	23	1	16	53	942	17.77	8	155.10
12	Terry	Glenn	wr	1996	22	1	15	90	1132	12.58	6	153.40
13	Louis	Lipps	wr	1984	22	1	14	45	860	19.11	9	153.10
14	Marques	Colston	wr	2006	23	1	14	70	1038	14.83	8	151.80
15	Sammy	White	wr	1976	22	1	14	51	906	17.76	10	149.60
16	Cris	Collinsworth	wr	1981	22	1	16	67	1009	15.06	8	148.90
17	Lee	Evans	wr	2004	23	1	16	48	843	17.56	9	146.80
18	Eddie	Kennison	wr	1996	23	1	15	54	924	17.11	9	146.40
19	Kevin	Johnson	wr	1999	24	1	16	66	986	14.94	8	146.00
20	Paul	Warfield	wr	1964	22	1	14	52	920	17.69	9	146.00

Who would've thought that, following Clayton's 2004 debut, he would've struggled so much in back-to-back seasons?

32 receptions for 372 yards and 0 TDs [WR94]
33 receptions for 356 yards and 1 TD [WR86]

Injuries have clearly taken their toll on the talented but mercurial wideout. In 2005, a series of "minor" ailments kept him from running at full speed. They included a badly sprained toe and a sore knee. Last year, Clayton suffered a partially torn MCL and ended up on injured reserve.

Is he healthy this season? And even so, does he have a job locked up?

Vying for his position as the starting flanker are youngster Maurice Stovall and veteran David Boston (yes, that David Boston). If Clayton's 2005-2006 downturn was solely a result of injuries, it seems unlikely he will lose his job to either. But can we be sure? Training camp is going to be fierce, and to the victor goes the right to line up opposite ageless Joey Galloway and to be featured as part of Jon Gruden's offensive machinations.

Positives

Clayton delivered one of the 10 best rookie seasons in fantasy football history
Jeff Garcia should provide stability to the offense that has been sorely lacking the last few seasons
An aging defense and uncertain ground game mean that the Bucs will have to throw quite a bit

Negatives

Clayton hasn't cracked the 400 yard mark in either of the last two seasons
It appears to be a truly open competition between Clayton, Stovall and Boston for the starting flanker position
The luster of the Bucs offense has worn out, and many wonder if Jeff Garcia is really the tonic

Final Thoughts

Michael Clayton doesn't deserve a lot of consideration on draft day in 10- and 12-team redraft leagues. He's failed to rank among the top 80 (!!!) in 2005 or 2006, and should be only considered as waiver wire fodder. However, if he does indeed recapture the explosiveness he showed as a rookie, Clayton could be one of those wideouts that "comes out of nowhere" to deliver decent numbers.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Sweet Love:
I think this ship has sailed. As documented on this board there is hype of other WRs challenging for his spot (Stovall and Boston...lol) and I really just think he caught lightning in a bottle his rookie year.

SSOG:
Pop Quiz: How many receivers are 25 or younger, have a 1,000 yard receiving season to their name, and are currently a starter? Now, how many of those guys are not ranked in the top-60 in FBG's dynasty rankings? Seriously, some of the people he's ranked behind in dynasty leagues just blows my mind. For instance, Troy Williamson- not only does Clayton have better per-game numbers over the last two years, but he also has that 1,000 yard season the year before, to boot.

I really think a lot of people are missing the boat on Clayton in dynasty leagues- in fact, he's currently my choice for most underrated player in Dynasty. If he ever gets healthy, you've got a potential stud on your hand... and if he doesn't, then so what? He's your WR5. There's pretty much no downside, and All-Pro upside. There's no reason at all not to stash him on your roster somewhere and hope for the best.

As for redraft... there are already reports this season that Clayton's still favoring his leg, which isn't a good sign at all. Assuming he can stay healthy, I'll go ahead and project him out to 55/800/5- something of a rebound season. He's got a lot of upside and downside, though. If Galloway's place in the offense is drastically reduced (as I expect) and Clayton's leg concerns wind up being nothing, then we're looking at 80/1100/8. If Clayon's leg injury really is something to worry about, then we're looking more at 40/500/2. A very risky pick, and not someone I'd like to have to start on a weekly basis, but once again, as your WR5 (he's currently projected as WR#51 by FBGs, which makes him a high WR5), what's the downside? If he doesn't pan out, then the Drew Bennetts, Eddie Kennisons, Muhsin Muhammads, and Isaac Bruces of the world will always be available on your waiver wire.

rzrback77:
When I consider Michael Clayton, a saying comes back to me from my youth, fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice, shame on me. From his awesome rookie season in 04, when he had 116 targets, 80 catches for 1193 yards, averaging 14.9 ypc and scoring 7 TDs, this guy has underperformed in record setting proportions. As bad as 05 was, when he followed up his rookie year with 32 catches for 372 yards and 0 TDs, his third season was even worse. He caught 33 on 65 targets, right at 50%. He averaged a career low 10.8 ypc and scored 1 TD. Even in ppr scoring, he had only two games in double digit fantasy points. He may not be undraftable, but he is close and he will not be drafted on my team in 07.

Michael Clayton Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	30	330	1
Message Board Consensus	0	0	45	576	3