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Spotlight - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Mark Clayton emerged as the top wide receiver in Baltimore during his second year as a pro, turning 114 targets into 67/939/5 (a 14.0 yards-per-reception average), while his teammate Derrick Mason converted an almost identical number of targets (112) into 68/750/2 -- obviously, the more coveted receiver in fantasy circles heading into 2007 is Clayton. He's young and entering the prime of his career, while Mason is entering his 11th NFL season and hasn't averaged more than 12.5 yards per reception over the past 3 years (he averaged 11 yards per catch last season). It looks like Claytons' star is on the rise -- he should crack the top 25 among WRs during his third campaign.

There is some reason for concern regarding the QB position in Baltimore right now as Steve McNair is charged with a misdemeanor "DUI by consent" -- he was passenger in his vehicle while his brother-in-law drove under the influence. The case is continued until July 10th, so right now we're not sure what punishment McNair may receive from the law, or from the NFL. Given commissioner Goodell's "get tough" policy with NFL miscreants, we'll just have to wait and see if McNair is going to miss any time once the legal case is over.

On the other side of the coin, the good news about McNair (assuming he escapes league sanctions) is that he'll be entering his second year playing in the Raven's offense, which could boost the passing game as a whole. That would be a good thing for Clayton, who would be sure to benefit from a more prolific attack.

Positives

• Clayton is a seasoned NFL veteran now and his professional development looks promising.
• Clayton doesn't have any rivals pushing him for playing time and looks like a clear-cut #1 WR.
• Clayton has added 10 lbs of muscle during the off-season to enhance his tackle-breaking ability and to add endurance. He is clearly focused on continuing to improve his game.

Negatives

• The Raven's offense is not high-flying -- their passing statistics tend to stay in the middle to lower part of the league year after year. Clayton's upside appears somewhat limited in this system.
• McNair's legal woes could cause problems early in the season.
• Clayton is still young, and we haven't seen a truly "breakout" season from him yet -- everything looks good entering 2007, but to vault into the elite ranks among fantasy WRs is not an easy jump to make.

Final Thoughts

Clayton is a promising young player who could become a star in this league. However, the Ravens' run-first, play-tough-D-and-win-low-scoring-games philosophy limits how exciting their wide receivers are in fantasy terms.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

kurtrudder:
Since he has established himself as the primary target in the Baltimore offense, I expect big things from him with his speed and game breaking ability. I wouldn't be surprised for him to be overlooked/undervalued in many drafts since the Ravens offense hasn't really set the world on fire over the past few years. The addition of McGahee will add further balance and give their offense a better opportunity to shine.

Spartans Rule:
I like Clayton's talent, but just don't see a monster year coming in Baltimore. Two main reasons:

1. The Ravens are a defensively-oriented football team. This was a balanced team last year, and it went out and made a splash in free agency, getting McGahee to improve the running game. You've also got an aging QB in Mc Nair who has taken more than his share of hits and could fall off the table at any time. As much as Billick likes to throw, he knows when not to throw as well, a situation that comes up all the time when you're as good on defense as Baltimore.

2. Clayton isn't much of a target in the red zone. This team has Todd Heap at TE and even Daniel Wilcox caught three touchdowns last year. Clayton has to get his touchdowns off of long passes, and there's a lot of variance in how often those occur.

rzrback77:
Mark Clayton is a first round drafted third year WR that came into his own for the Baltimore Ravens in 2006. Consider that his targets increased from 86 in his first year to 114, an increase of 33%. Consider that his receiving yardage went up from 471 to 939, an increase of 99% and his ypc went from 10.7 to 14.0. Reports at the Ravens first minicamp stated that he had gained 10 pounds in an effort to increase his strength. Additionally, in the first half of 06, Mason was the favorite target, having 55 against Clayton's 44. But in the second half of the year, Clayton turned the tables as he was targeted 70 to Mason's 57. Clayton's per game target went from 5.5 per game to 8.8. I believe that his play will continue to improve in 07. I give him 130 targets 78 catches 1100 yds (14.1 ypc) and 8 TDs.

Mark Clayton Projections