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Spotlight - TE Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears

Posted on 7/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Last year, the Bears' young starter Rex Grossman finally played a full slate of 16 games, and he relied on Desmond Clark in a big way. As a result of his rapport with Grossman, Clark threw down a career-best season last year, hauling in 45/626/6 while being targeted with 80 passes. It was his best showing since 2001, when Clark snagged 51/566/6 during his final season with the Broncos. Since arriving in Chicago back in 2003, Clark had bounced around the high-teens (16^th) to low 30's (32^nd) before finishing 8^th in fantasy points at his position during 2006. He was one of the best values at his position last year -- the question entering 2007 is this: Given the Bears' selection of TE Greg Olsen in the first round of the '07 draft (#31), will Clark continue to be a top-tier fantasy TE?

The first reason to be optimistic about Desmond Clark's 2007 prospects is that Olsen is a rookie TE. Olsen isn't reputed to be a strong run blocker (a key requirement at the TE position in Chicago's run-oriented attack), which will keep Olsen off the field in a lot of situations. Also, the step up from the college ranks to the pro level is a big one -- rookie TE's rarely have a high fantasy profile in their first season. Take a look at Vernon Davis' season from last year (42 targets for 20/265/3 over 10 games) or Dallas Clark's rookie season (42 targets for 29/340/1 over 10 games) -- both guys were 1^st round picks that came into the league behind veteran TEs (Davis had Eric Johnson to contend with; Clark was behind Marcus Pollard).

The second reason to be optimistic about Clark's 2007 prospects is that the team lost pass-catching RB Thomas Jones to the Jets in free agency, leaving the ham-handed Cedric Benson to carry the load at tailback. Jones snagged 56, 26, and 36 passes during his 3 seasons in Chicago (2004-2006) -- at least some and perhaps most of these short passes will end up in the TEs' hands this season in Chicago. More opportunities flowing to Clark and Olsen will mean a bigger "pie" of yardage and scoring chances to split among the tight ends. Clark should be able to at least maintain his share of targets on the team (and might see an increase of chances) even with Olsen on the field part-time.

The third reason to be optimistic about Clark's 2007 prospects is that, in passing situations, the presence of Olsen on the field will help loosen up coverage on Clark (and put pressure on Clark to perform at the top of his game). As Rex Grossman stated on June 5^th, "Greg Olsen is going to be huge. He's going to make Desmond Clark better and our whole offense. We're probably going to have a few more plays for the tight end than we did. Flex him out to receiver, he's fast enough to play there. We're excited about it." There is a lot to be said for motivation, and little motivates a player in the NFL more than a challenge for playing time. Clark stated in late May "He's going to do everything he can do to get the most playing time he can. I'm going to do what I've got to do to try and hold my position. I think we're going to complement each other well because we've got special skills that complement each other. So I don't really look at us as adversaries."

Positives

• Clark is very simpatico with Rex Grossman and is firmly atop the depth chart in Chicago. Grossman has a full year of NFL experience under his belt and will hopefully continue to progress in his development as a pro during 2007.
• Clark is healthy and only 30 years old -- he's got a wealth of experience and no known injury issues entering the 2007 season.
• The tight end position is going to be more heavily featured in the Chicago passing game during the coming year.

Negatives

• Grossman runs hot and cold in the passing game so far during his career, making the number of targets available from week to week somewhat variable.
• Chicago's Soldier Field is often a tough venue to execute the passing game during the winter months, which tends to lower fantasy production for the Bears' receivers during the later half of the NFL season (during the run to the playoffs).
• If Olsen gets up to speed as a blocker during the course of the season, he could negatively impact Clark's numbers later in the season.

Final Thoughts

During 2007, I expect Desmond Clark to lead the Bears at the tight end position. Olsen will see some reps during games, but the lions' share of chances should still land on Clark's plate. I expect Clark to end up in the top ten at his position again this year while Olsen learns the ropes at the pro level and prepares a major push for playing time during 2008.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Over the last five seasons, Desmond Clark had the only decent fantasy season among Bear TEs and it was last year. But now, its 07 and the outlook is not promising for him. There is another quality Tight End in camp, some of the younger Bear WRs are said to be recovering from injuries, and the QB position is still not solidified. The only positive is that the running game is much more suspect than last year as Thomas Jones has moved on. I think that Greg Olsen will play a lot and will take away targets from Clark. I also think that the Bears will continue to involve the RBs in the short passing game with Peterson as well as Benson. I see a definite move to the mean for Desmond Clark.

Sweet Love:
[Greg] Olsen will cut into his production coupled with a hangover from a career year.

Jason Wood, FBG Staff
Clark is both a legit fantasy starter this year AND he's grossly undervalued beause of a rookie TE of all things. I beg people to look at the "accomplishments" of rookie TEs the likes of Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates to name a few before they start cementing Olsen in as the "Clark Killer."Cark was Rex Grossman's safety valve last year and is the consumate professional. If anything, with Thomas Jones' departure, I can see Rex looking to Clark more in 2007 than he did in 2006. But based on the few responses I've seen in this thread so far, the Shark Pool tends to disagree.

Desmond Clark Projections