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Spotlight - QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

With so many other young quarterbacks getting their chances to run the offense for the first time last year, Jason Campbell was able to fly under the radar in the second half of the 2006 season. Campbell isn't as high a profile player as the rookies who got their shots (Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Vince Young), nor did he play for a high profile team like Tony Romo with the Dallas Cowboys. Yet there are many reasons that you should take note of Campbell for 2007 and beyond from both an NFL and a fantasy football perspective.

Campbell started 2006 as the backup to the veteran Mark Brunell, the 2006 starter for Washington less than 12 months ago -- yet it seems like quite a long time since Brunell led the Redskins. That is mostly because Campbell, a first round pick by Washington in 2005, entered Week 11 as the starter and proceeded to throw two touchdowns and racked up 196 yards passing against Tampa Bay. He started the remainder of the season, throwing for at least one TD for seven straight weeks and scored 12-21 fantasy points each of those games, but the downside is that he never threw for more than 220 yards in any game despite throwing 30+ passes three times.

Now I will admit that I panned Campbell in the pre-season last August, but he really was not very good when I scouted him. His technique was bad, he threw off of his back foot, relying on his strong arm (and it is a good one), and he lacked the pocket presence that most teams want from their offensive leader. The fact that by the end of 2006 he could lead the Redskins on a weekly basis and also that he learned to correct most of the flaws in just a few months speaks well of his upside. He still has issues with interceptions and looking off the safeties, but now that he enters 2007 as the clear starter he should be able to work through many more defects by this September.

Throughout the off-season and entering Redskin training camp, Campbell is the clear #1 option under center. Brunell has become the veteran backup with no real chance to start barring an injury to Campbell as head coach Joe Gibbs has turned the team over to the young signal caller. With the majority of the plays and multiple reps with the first team offense, Campbell should be able to grow much more accustomed to throwing to WR Santana Moss. In 2006 critics of both Campbell and Moss claimed that either the QB was unable to stretch the field or that his primary wide receiver was the problem. I believe that both will help each other to improve for this year as they work on their timing and rapport for this coming season.

Positives

• Jason Campbell enters 2007 as the clear starting quarterback with the Washington Redskins, a title held by Mark Brunell, who now takes over as the #2 veteran option
• In 2007, Campbell threw for 10 TDs in seven starts, including at least one in every game
• The Redskins running game is formidable, both with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the backfield to take the pressure off the young quarterback
• The timing between Campbell and WR Santana Moss should improve, increasing their combined production as they get used to each other in training camp
• Campbell also possesses both good mobility and running ability, as evidenced by his 107 yards rushing on 24 carries in 2006

Negatives

• The Redskins have one of the best 1-2 punches at running back in the NFL in Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. It would not be surprising to see that Washington tries to run the ball much more than throw it, which could limit Campbell's statistical performances
• Campbell struggled to stretch the field in 2006, averaging a paltry 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA)
• In just seven games last season, Campbell threw six interceptions. Coupling this with his low YPA, it is quite possible that Campbell may average an INT per game (or more) if Washington attempts to stretch the field more in 2007.
• Despite Campbell's ability to run, both running backs for Washington are well above average rushers, so there will likely be very few designed runs called for Campbell

Final Thoughts

Looking at all the different possibilities for Campbell, there is relatively little downside to drafting him as a fantasy football quarterback for your team this season. He has string upside as well with his getting full reps as the starter in training camp and having seven games of experience for this year, so I feel comfortable in saying that my prediction for 2007 for Jason Campbell is 3150 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, along with 225 rushing yards and a rushing TD. That would put him at just over 15 fantasy points a week on average, which would be a pretty good backup or spot starter (QB#2) for your fantasy roster. Given that he should be available in many drafts late (current ADP has him about the 23rd QB selected), he would be an excellent choice if you had a stud QB as your primary starter (such as Peyton Manning). Now of course that would vary if you had to start two quarterbacks in your league or if you had a bigger (14 or 16) team league, but suffice it to say that Campbell should go around QB23 in most drafts.

So when you put it all together, Campbell has no challenge for his job, has talent at skill positions around him in Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley and both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, and also benefits from having a solid offensive coordinator in COACH. In addition, Washington is likely to struggle as a team to win this year, which could give Campbell some extra chances to throw the ball around and get a few extra touchdowns. Remember, all the points count in fantasy football, even if they don't decide the outcome of a game. Therefore if you are able to grab Campbell late as your #2 QB or even if you need a third QB, you should be able to rest comfortably in knowing that you will have a stable backup on your fantasy team.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
OK, time to put out the Jason Campbell fire. He will not sniff 20 TD this season and what on God's Green Earth makes anyone think the Redskins are a better team this season? Was it the big offseason they never had? Or that steller draft where they reloaded with good young talent? I'm curious where the high end ganja that is getting passed around in here is coming from.

1. This team is going to run run run the ball with Betts and Portis. They have a suspect defense and will try and go on long drives to keep them off the field. I doubt you will see Campbell going up top all that much on a regular basis. They are not looking to score quickly.

2. He is not that accurate. 53% last season and a yds per attempt of about 6. Give me a break. He was a system type QB at Auburn, sure he threw for a nice completion percentage there...ALL 1st round QBs throw for a nice completion % in college...otherwise they don't get drafted in the 1st round typically. Russell 62%, Quinn 62%, Beck 69%, Kolb 67%, Stanton 61%...they all are accurate so please refrain form telling us how great Campbell was at Auburn and how deadly accurate he was...most of his career he had great RB behind him that took all the pressure off him. He threw for about 20-25 times a game...he was not chucking the ball 40 times a game. He is very limited in what you want a pro QB to be. And his accuracy is going to be a major problem.

3. To me I see him as another Quincy Carter. He doesn't have a big arm, limited weapons in the passing game. Moss/Cooley/Randel El is not one of the top10 WR/TE corps IMO. Moss is a streaky WR that really does his damage on the long balls. Campbell may have what it takes between the ears but the reality is that most NFL QBs that start are pretty smart. Look at the top QBs...Manning, Brady, Bulger, they are all smart. And even the next tier of younger QBs like Phillip Rivers who I would much rather have over a Jason Campbell.

Thom Yorke:
Overview/Background: If you are a Redskins fan, I think you have to be pretty happy with what you saw out of Jason Campbell in his first real NFL action. Through 7 games, he managed to toss 10 scores against just 6 interceptions, a ratio that virtually any QB would be envious of. As a Saints homer, I recall being particularly impressed with his early play against us, where he tossed a 44 yard completion to Chris Cooley and a 31 yard strike to Santana Moss for a score, en route to an upset win. Campbell looked poised and collected, and seemed to be fully in charge of the offense.

However, Campell was a first year quarterback, and it showed. Most noticably, he never threw for more than 220 yards in any one game. Moreover, his completion percentage was a rather poor 53%, suggesting that he has a long way to go in terms of passing accuracy. Still, it was a very solid effort in his inaugural campaign as an NFL starter.

Changes/Developments in 2007: Campbell should benefit from getting Clinton Portis back into the fold, and a healthy Santana Moss should also be a big help. However, the Redskins didn't do much to improve the offense in the offseason, concentrating on the other side of the ball in free agency and in the draft.

Projection: Projecting Campbell's 2006 numbers over 16 games results in the following: 2,964 yards passing, 22 TD, 13 INT. With Portis back into the mix, I'd expect a heavy dose of the run game from Washington, which may prevent Jason from hitting 20+ TD and could put a mild damper on his yardage. I also think that a more confident Campbell may throw picks at a slightly higher rate as he continues to adjust to the NFL game. Overall, Campbell is probably one year away from being a guy that you throw into the mix as a possible top 12 QB, but he'll be a serviceable fantasy backup.

scoobygang:
Campbell's first starting experience closely mirrors Patrick Ramsey's first experience. We were all very optimistic about his development, to the point that I think a lot of us forgot that he'd have typical growing pains. Now, Gibbs isn't Spurrier, but I still think the expectations around DC are uniformly too high for a young QB. In division teams have had an entire offseason to look at what Campbell does well and what he doesn't. When this happens, even very talented and successful young QBs often come back to earth to a bit. My guess is something like 3100 19 16 through the air (with a 57% or so completion percentage). Somewhere around 200 and 2 on the ground. A servicable spot starter in a QB rotation akin to Pennington last year.

Jason Campbell Projections