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Spotlight - RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

With more than 15 million Americans (and countless others outside the U.S.) participating in fantasy football, there are myriad scoring systems, draft styles and bylaws by which people craft their leagues. At Footballguys, we try very hard to offer tools and advice that cover any style imaginable. But as most of you know, our default analysis centers around what we call "FBG Scoring," which, among other things, DOES NOT reward points for receptions.

But, for many of you (myself included), a great many of your leagues DO count receptions in your point totals.

In most cases, the difference between PPR (points per reception) leagues and traditional scoring leagues is minimal, particularly at the RB position. But for a certain few players, the difference is important enough to warrant separate fantasy outlooks depending.

Reggie Bush is one such player. Last season, Bush ran the ball 155 times and caught 88 passes. More than half of his yardage came as a receiver, in stark contrast to the typical running back. Take a look at how Reggie Bush ranked among leagues with and without PPR considerations:

• Non-PPR: 177.6 fantasy points = RB17
• PPR: 266.6 fantasy points = RB9

Just to clarify, in leagues that awards points per reception, Bush went from a marginal RB2 (RB17) to a PHENOMENAL RB2 (RB9), as a rookie. That was in spite of his troubles running the ball in the first half, and in spite of giving up the lion's share of the rushing workload to Deuce McAllister.

Even if we presume Bush does nothing to improve his rookie numbers, he looks like a compelling option in PPR leagues, but what about non-PPR leagues? Bush is currently being drafted 10th overall according to our ADP data, which means he'll need to show marked improvement from last year's numbers to warrant his draft slot. Is that likely?

The Saints had the #1 rated offense in the league last year, but that was really a function of the passing game. The Saints passing game ranked 1st in completions, 1st in yards, and 4th in TD passes. The running game, however, was less successful.

• 12th in attempts
• 19th in yards
• 26th in yards per rush
• 5th in rushing TDs

Assuming Deuce McAllister duplicates last year's production, how will Bush improve his fantasy totals? BY CONTINUING TO DO WHAT HE DID LATE IN THE 2006 SEASON, THAT'S HOW.

Watching Bush play last year, you could see the impatience early on. He would run into the back of his blockers far too often, and would be tackled behind the line of scrimmage as he tried to make the home-run play. But as the rookie jitters settled down, Bush started to show the patience we saw at USC. He started to trust the scheme, let his blockers do their job, and he realized that sometimes taking the 3-yard gain that's available is better than hoping for the 20-yard one that's not.

Bush's yards per rush, 1st and 2nd half of the season

• Games 1-8: 2.56 yards per rush
• Games 9-16: 4.84 yards per rush

Bush's rushing touchdowns, 1st and 2nd half of the season

• Games 1-8: Zero (0)
• Games 9-16: Six (6)

Even if Bush sees no increase in his touches this year (something I find unlikely), he showed unquestionable growth last season and is a good bet to do more with each touch. Barring injury, that puts his floor at a solid RB2, with upside well into the top-10 at his position if he starts getting a heavier dose of the work Deuce McAllister currently lays claim to.

Positives

• Bush showed marked improvement as a runner in the second half of last season, and is positioned to improve on last year's numbers even if he doesn't seen an increased workload
• Bush is one of the few true difference makers at RB in terms of his receiving abilities, and is a lock top-10 fantasy back in PPR leagues as a result
• The Saints offensive line is among the NFC's best

Negatives

• Deuce McAllister is poised for another heavy workload, and barring an injury will limit Bush's total touches
• In non-PPR leagues, Bush current ADP leaves little margin for value

Final Thoughts

As a rookie, Reggie Bush played quite well but failed to live up to otherworldly expectations. He averaged less than 4 yards per rush and played a backseat to Deuce McAllister. On the other hand, he caught 88 passes and was a true difference maker in the passing game. The good news is that, assuming no increase in touches, Bush should exceed last year's fantasy totals because of the growth he showed in his production per touch as the 2006 season progressed. In PPR leagues, he's a solid bet for top-10 production. In non-PPR leagues, I still think Bush could finish comfortably among the top 10, but it's a far riskier bet. I would seriously consider drafting Bush in the early 2nd round in non-PPR leagues, and would absolutely do so in PPR leagues. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
I used to think Bush was destined for 300 carries in NO some day but after watching him in a 2 back system in college, and now at the NFL level too...I just gotta think that they try and keep him between 180-240 carries tops a season. There is no end to the amount of catches he can get though. Have we ever had a 100 catch RB? Centers'95 comes to mind...Reggie can break that record. No real threat at the WR2 position so Bush can be option #1 or #2 for all pass plays.

Just Win Baby:
As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:

Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy points
Games 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy points

And note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter.

And then he followed that up with 225 total yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games against Philly and Chicago.

Project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4... and his playoff performance makes that seem like a pretty valid projection, especially considering the competition.

Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.

Bracie Smathers:
Reggie Bush's forte is speed and working in space. Reggie got dinged in his first start last year where he had 15 carries and only had one game where he had that many carries. His yards per carry leapt over the last month and a half but his highest carry game, 20 totes against the NYG, came sanwiched inbetween 3 and 7 carry games so I don't think the Saints have big plans to use Reggie more as workhorse RB. The thing to get excited about with him per running the football is that he started to be a consistent scoring threat at the goal line over the last month. Bush only had one rushing TD over the first 11 games but then he had three rushing TDs in the 12th game. He then scored in three consecutive games down the stretch of the year which proved the Saints had found a way to utilize him at the goal line.

Although Reggie proved he can be an effective weapon along the goal line I don't see him getting a large number of increased carries. On the other hand I see no reason why his reception totals can't increase.

In his first game he caught 7 balls and had seven games with at least 7 receptions. He had three 100 recieving games but only one 100 yard rushing game. His longest reception was 74 yards whereas his longest run from scrimmage was only 25 yards. His second longest reception was 61 yards but his second longest run was only 18 yards. The visions that the fantasy football world has of Reggie Bush busting off huge runs never materialized but those same big game breaking plays came to fruition when Bush got the ball in his hands in space as a pass receiver. That is Reggie Bush's perfect role, that is where a smart OC would best utilize his skills if he wants to see huge game breaking plays. This is how I project Bush's number for the upcoming season.

Reggie Bush Projections