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Spotlight - WR Plaxico Burress, New York Giants

Posted on 6/24, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Plaxico Burress has been the primary receiver of the New York Giants and of QB Eli Manning since 2005, collecting 139 catches for over 2,200 yards and 17 touchdowns in two seasons for Big Blue.  He's been in the Top 12 of FBG WR scoring for two consecutive seasons, yet all of the staff (myself included) has him ranked outside of that mark (but within striking distance and as a respectable WR2 for fantasy purposes).  Is that a realistic expectation, or are we all selling him a little short?

Burress has always been a big play receiver. He has the speed to be a menacing deep ball threat to opposing secondaries, and Eli Manning is not afraid to throw it in his direction for any distance.  He nearly broke 1,000 yards once again last season, but fell a few yards shy of that milestone.  Burress recorded two 100-yard games last year, both against the Eagles.  He averaged over 15 yards a catch for two years running, but the price he pays is in reception percentage (roughly 50% of his targets).  Burress also did not record a single regular season game with two touchdowns in all of 2006 despite finding the end zone 10 times. 

No one is really denying Burress' ability as a receiver and as a deep threat. Whether it is 1,000, 1,100 or 1,200 yards, it all comes down to touchdowns for Plaxico this year.  Will he have 10 like last season (and another two in the post season, for what that's worth)?  Or will he be the guy who caught just seven in 2005? 

I'm coming at his projections with an open mind, and I cannot see how he doesn't get more throws coming his way this year than last year.  He may not see 166 targets like in 2005, but given just 121 last year I think he settles into a number just between those two marks.  He is a deep threat, and as such he will not be considered a possession style WR for the Giants -- that's the WR2 and Jeremy Shockey's job.  Burress has struggled to meet even the 50% mark for targets turned into receptions, so I will expect a similar trend for this coming season.

Positives

• Plaxico Burress is the clear and unquestionable primary target in the Giants passing game
• In 2007, there are significant questions about the running attack in the New York offense. Without Tiki Barber, the combination of Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns are likely to struggle to fill that huge void. Someone has to elevate as both a viable target and as a big part of a passing game
• Eli Manning is entering his third season as a starter, and he understands the pitfalls that came in his second year. Working with Burress and getting him in the mix this season is a high priority
• The improvements the Giants made at the other WR position are significant. In addition to Amani Toomer returning from a severe injury, Sinorice Moss and now the newly drafted Steve Smith from USC are in the mix to compliment Burress. Additional targets to disrupt opposing secondaries will go a long way

Negatives

• Burress failed to score more than one touchdown in any game last season, and also topped 100 yards just twice all year
• For the first time in two years, Burress missed a game with back spasms last season. While relatively minor, it should be noted that he has lost time two of the last three years to injuries -- a dangerous trend for a wide receiver about to cross over to the wrong side of 30 this coming August
• While the improvements of the WR corps for the Giants should help the passing game, there is no guarantee that it will bolster Burress' numbers. His teammates should benefit more, and any team incremental improvement may be significant to all but the 1,000 yard receiver
• The Giants revamping of the run game may limit offensive play this year. If New York commits to establishing a ground game, opportunities could shrink for Burress as a result
• Without Tiki Barber, defenses may key on stopping the pass and letting the Giants try and run. More defensive pressure on Burress may slow him down and also limit his targets

Final Thoughts

Taking all the different factors into consideration -- from WR2 to TE to the RB issues -- and I settle down to a few statistical projections that make sense to me for Plaxico Burress.  My prediction for 2007 for Burress is 140 targets, 75 catches and 1200 yards.  That would put him at 16 yards per catch, which is right in line with his past two seasons' performances.  What will matter the most and likely separate Burress from being a true fantasy #1 WR or just a very strong #2 is the touchdown totals.  If he can find the end zone between seven and ten times this regular season, a Top 10 finish is probable for Burress and many fantasy owners would be happy.  Once again, I'm taking the middle ground and giving Burress eight scores for this year's campaign.

So if you add it all up, Burress would register 168 fantasy points in FBG scoring, and tally another 75 in PPR leagues (a total of 243 points), which would put him in the 11-13 range of 2006 WR performances -- pointing once again to that WR1 / WR2 fine line.  Therefore if you are able to pick up Burress after 12-14 WRs are off your draft board this year, I wouldn't bat an eye if you grabbed him as your #2 with #1 potential.  That's the kind of savvy draft move that can put a fantasy owner in the playoffs.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
Plaxico is not an NFL #1 WR and not a fantasy #1 WR. He is way too inconsistent and has too much attitude. Its gonna be a long year for the Giants. Their offensive line is a mess and their defense is bad. Their running game doesnt excite me either. That being said Plaxico is their #1 target and theres not much behind him except Shockey (and who knows if he stays in to block more). I think Plax will be a solid #2 fantasy WR.

redman:
That offense is not going to be able to sustain drives like it did with Barber in the backfield. I certainly don't predict an increase in Burress' numbers, but any decline should be offset by the offense's need to pass itself out of troubles that it didn't face with Barber there. I think the average of his last two years is a fair way to predict his performance.

Thom Yorke:
Profile/Background: Burress is a real enigma of a player, being blessed with tremendous physical tools, yet not always willing to do what it takes to become one of the NFL's elite at the position. From a fantasy perspective, last year was a mixed bag for Plax. On one hand, he had a career high in touchdowns with 10 (tacking on two more in a playoff loss to Philly), and was much more consistent on a week to week basis, failing to hit double digit scoring in only four games, as opposed to 9 in 2006. He also compiled 988 yards despite missing one game in its entirety and being yanked early in one other, for reasons which still remain a bit unclear to this writer.

On the other hand, Burress apparently had personality clashes with the always pleasant Tom Coughlin, who returns for what could be his final season with the team. Plax also seemed to struggle at times to get on the same page as QB Eli Manning, resulting in some lost opportunities which could have increased his overall numbers. Even when one accounts for his missed time in 2006, Burress's overall targets were also noticibly down from the prior season (166 targets in 2005 in 16 games, or 10.3 per, versus 121 in 15 games, or 8.06 per in 2006). On the flip side, Burress did convert at a much higher clip on his targets (63 out of 121) in 2006 than he did in 05 (76 out of 166).

Key Changes in 2007: Undoubtably, the most important change in New York is the departure of potential HOF'er Tiki Barber, one of the league's all time great dual-threat RB. Barber was the recipient of 82 targets, which he converted for 58 catches and nearly 500 yards in 2006, and those targets/recs will have to be redirected elsewhere this season. Barber's replacements, Brandon Jacobs and R. Droughns, are nowhere near the receiver that Barber was, so it is reasonable to expect that Burress, the team's undisputed #1 wideout, may enjoy a slight bump in his targets as a result.

Free agent/draft wise, the Giants added some WR help in USC wideout Steve Smith. Though only a rookie, I think Smith will help bolster a WR core that includes the aging Amani Toomer and the unproven Sinorice Moss. However, Burress, along with Jeremy Shockey, will remain the focal points of the aerial attack.

Outlook for 2007: All in all, there's very little reason to suspect that Burress would suffer a sudden dropoff from the numbers he has posted the last two years in New York. The departure of Barber is reason enough to speculate that Burress could be featured a bit more than he has been in the past. To a degree, Burress's improvement or regression may be a reflection of the progress (or lack thereof) of Eli Manning, whose erratic performance has prevented Burress from putting up the numbers he may be capable of. There remain some character questions with Plax, and the possibilities for a flare up with Coughlin make him mildly more risky than some other WR out there.

In sum, if you're bullish on Manning, 1300 yards and 9-11 touchdowns seems like a reasonable projection. Those that believe that Manning will continue to struggle will probably feel more comfortable with a call of 1100 receiving and 6-8 TD. Personally, I come down somewhere in the middle.

Plaxico Burress Projections