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Spotlight - QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Pop Quiz: Who is the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards per game?

Peyton Manning? X
Dan Marino? X
Dan Fouts? X
Brett Favre? X

Marc Bulger...his 270 passing yards per game are tops in NFL history. Hard to believe, isn't it?

All-Time Passing Yards per Game (Min: 50 Games Played)

1. Marc Bulger -- 270.6 yards per game
2. Peyton Manning -- 261.0 yards per game
3. Kurt Warner -- 257.4 yards per game
4. Dan Marino -- 253.6 yards per game
5. Daunte Culpepper -- 234.2 yards per game

Here are some other statistical tidbits about Marc Bulger's and his fantasy prowess:

• 4th in fantasy points per game over last five years (1-Culpepper, 2-Manning, 3-McNabb, 4-Bulger)
• Three of four seasons as a top-10 fantasy QB, only missing the mark in 2005 due to injury
• Coming off his best fantasy season (3rd best fantasy QB)
• 2nd all-time for completion percentage at 64.4% (Min: 50 games) (Kurt Warner is 1st)

Any way you slice the numbers, Marc Bulger is one of the most productive quarterbacks in the game today and is only getting better. While always a yardage machine, Bulger had a penchant for throwing interceptions which was as much about Mike Martz' offensive philosophy as about Bulger's decision-making. Last year, playing for HC Scott Linehan, Bulger dramatically reduced his interception totals:

• Interception Percentage under Mike Martz -- 3.4%
• Interception Percentage under Scott Linehan -- 1.4%

Armed with a new 6-year, $65mm contract extension, Bulger is in camp and ready to built rapport with his new offensive weapons. Yes, as if Bulger's outlook wasn't already compelling the Rams went out and added to their arsenal this year in the form of WR3 Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael. The collection of offensive talent at Bulger's disposal is arguably without peer:

• WR Torry Holt -- One of the five best receivers in the game
• WR Isaac Bruce -- Coming off yet another 1,000-yard season and close to locking up a Hall of Fame berth
• WR Drew Bennett -- Former starter has excellent size and slots in as an above average WR3
• RB Steven Jackson -- Caught 90 passes last year despite also piling up the rushing yardage
• TE Randy McMichael -- Was a perennial fantasy stud while playing for Linehan in Miami

The only legitimate concern for keeping Bulger from another top-5 fantasy season would be his health. Bulger isn't the biggest QB (210 pounds) and, to some, doesn't pass the "eyeball test." Bulger has missed time in the last few seasons with bruised ribs and, more importantly, pain in his throwing shoulder. His throwing shoulder has given him problems for several years, and ultimately cost him half of the 2005 season. While he appears healthy, it probably pays to have a solid backup plan at QB if you're going to build your team around Bulger this season.

Positives

• Bulger is a perennial top-5 fantasy QB in points per game, and is coming off his best season
• HC Scott Linehan and OC Greg Olson maintained Bulger's passing production while helping him minimize the turnovers that were common under Mike Martz
• The Rams field one of the most daunting offensive units in the league, with two HOF caliber wideouts, a talented WR3, a supremely talented runner and a newly acquired tight end who has a history of producing under Linehan's watch

Negatives

• Although Orlando Pace remains a star at tackle, the Rams offensive line needs to improve on the 49 sacks allowed in 2006 (4th worst in the NFL)
• Bulger has dealt with pain in his throwing shoulder for several years
• The Rams run/pass ratio could moderate a bit if their defense (under Jim Haslett) can make a turnaround

Final Thoughts

Bulger is healthy, has a monstrously talented offensive cast. He's among the all-time NFL greats in yards and completion percentage, and showed promising improvement in his turnover ratio under Scott Linehan. As long as the offensive line can keep him from taking a pounding (something they didn't do last year), Bulger should put up top-5 numbers; and be a decent pickup if you're unwilling or unable to draft Manning or Palmer in the first two rounds.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Bulgar quietly produces terrific numbers year after year as long as he can stay healthy .. last season #3 in FBG scoring with over 4300 yds and 24 TDs his best numbers ever during a season that saw his worst completions per attempts ratio, in an Offence that was supposedly transitioning from the Martz era to a somewhat more conservative Linehan approach.

The offseason has seen the addition of D. Bennett and R. McMichael; two more proven quality ball catching threats. I think if Bulger can stay on the field he'll come very close to repeating last seasons outstanding numbers and again will outproduce his ADP.

shadyridr:
Bulger is a perennial top 5 QB. IMO nothing changes this year. He will still light up the offensive numbers. He may pass less to Jackson if the offensive line improves. But those numbers will just go to Holt, Bruce, Bennett, and McMichael. This is a top offensive team and Bulger will be a stud. The only thing that holds him back from top 3 usually is his propensity to miss a few games every year. But that shouldn't hold you back from drafting him and you can usually get him as the 5th or 6th QB off the board after all the big names are taken.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Bulger regressed a good bit last season, despite the strong raw numbers.

Bulger led the league in fantasy points per game in 2005, and was almost as good in 2004 (although he ranked 4th behind the monster years out of Manning, Culpepper and McNabb). Bulger saw his FP/G drop by nearly 5 points last year.

Sure he ranked 3rd, but Manning and McNabb were way better than him last season. Brees and Palmer were a good bit better, too, but Palmer's greatness was minimized by his difficult schedule. Vick and Romo also averaged more FP per adjusted game last year, too.

I like Bulger a lot and have always been on the Bulger bandwagon, mostly because he's been awesome each year. His TD rate and his yards per pass rate went down by decent margins, probably because of the emergence of Jackson and the down year by Holt.

The Rams threw 30 more passes to RBs, 13 more to TEs and 53 fewer to WRs in 2006 relative to 2005. I think that's a big reason for the decrease in production by Bulger, and I'd be a little worried about him in 2006.

He's probably a lock to be top 10 when he plays, but his upside seems lower than in years passed, when he was a lock to be top 5 when he played.

Ministry of Pain:
With Holt, Bennett, Bruce, McMichael, SJax, and Leonard who was drafted...he has 3 new weapons to exploit. How is any defense going to stop the Rams either thru the air or on the ground? I think he could see the jump to 30+TD...I didn't pencil him in for that but I posted what I thought were conservative numbers. The Rams have to be on a short list of offenses or teams that you want as many players from as possible. They should have a very strong pass attack and their defense is not quite rock solid yet so look for them to be in more than a couple track meets with teams.

Marc Bulger Projections