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Spotlight - WR Isaac Bruce, St. Louis Rams

Posted on 8/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's been a long time since anyone disputed Torry Holt's dominance over Isaac Bruce. When Holt joined the Rams, he combined with Bruce (in his prime) and it was more akin to having two WR1s than a WR1 and WR2. But times have changed. Holt is on record-setting Hall of Fame pace and is widely considered a top-5 fantasy receiver; while Bruce is nearing the end of his career.

But here's what I don't understand, why is Isaac Bruce being drafted AFTER Drew Bennett? If anything, Isaac Bruce is MUCH closer to Torry Holt in ability and opportunity than he is to Bennett, much less does he deserve to be drafted after the free agent addition.

This all comes down to age, and it's silly.

Bruce is 34 and will turn 35 years old this season. While Mother Nature inevitably takes its toll on every receiver, why is this suddenly the magic year when Bruce will show degradation? Joey Galloway continues to play well. Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are doing fine.

In today's NFL, it's not simply enough to look at someone's age and downgrade them because of it. You have to look at their underlying skill set. Let's compare another aging receiver, Eric Moulds, to Bruce to articulate what I mean.

• A study in yards per reception (Moulds vs. Bruce): Moulds, also 34 years old, has seen his yards per catch decline for 8 straight seasons. Age and injury are clearly taking their toll in that he's no longer a deep threat and can't break away from defensive backs and gain separation. Last year, Moulds averaged 9.8 yards per catch (worse than many NFL tight ends). Meanwhile Isaac Bruce averaged 14.8 yards per catch, which is in line with his career mark (15.1). More importantly, it was the 5th straight year his yards per catch actually INCREASED.

Bruce continues to be featured in the offense, has shown no signs of losing his speed or ability to gain separation, and continues to catch passes at a high rate without turning the ball over or dropping balls.

Isaac Bruce was targeted 126 times last year, good for 18th in the league. There's absolutely no reason to think the Rams are going to throw less this year, nor is there any worry that they'll be less effective so long as Marc Bulger stays healthy (did you know Bulger is top-5 all time in fantasy points per game for his position?).

But isn't Drew Bennett a real threat to Bruce's numbers? LAST YEAR, Bruce caught 74 passes for 1,098 yards. Meanwhile Bennett caught 46 passes for 737 yards. Consider for a second that Drew Bennett played for a Titans team that was absolutely DESPERATE for offensive playmakers, yet the best he could do was 737 yards and a 43rd place fantasy ranking. The truth is, Drew Bennett has been living off a crazy 3-game stretch late in the 2004 season for far too long. Over those three game, Bennett amassed 28 receptions for 517 yards and 8 TDs. Impressive, YES. Fluky, ABSOLUTELY. The bottom line is that, throughout six year career, Bennett hasn't done much to warrant any fantasy consideration much less threaten a proven veteran who is coming off yet another 1,000-yard season. Take a quick look at Bennett's per game averages, season by season:

• 2001 -- 2.79 fantasy points per game
• 2002 -- 4.00 fantasy points per game
• 2003 -- 6.25 fantasy points per game
• 2004 -- 12.31 fantasy points per game
• 2004A -- 7.00 fantasy points per game
• 2005 -- 7.54 fantasy points per game
• 2006 -- 5.75 fantasy points per game

*** 2004A excludes Bennett's monster 3-game stretch

As you can see, Bennett has been consistently mediocre outside that fluke 3-game stretch catching lobs from Billy Volek. Why would we presume he's going to magically flourish in St. Louis?

But aren't Drew Bennett and free agent TE Randy McMichael going to steal targets away from someone? Yes, those two players will be targeted in this offense and certainly they have to come from somewhere. But why would you assume a disproportionate amount of those targets will come at the expense of Isaac Bruce?

• Steven Jackson was targeted 111 times last year, that won't happen again this year (remember when LaDainian Tomlinson caught 100 balls?)
• Kevin Curtis, now a Philadelphia Eagle, was targeted 56 times last year
• Shaun McDonald, now a Detroit Lion, was targeted 19 times last year
• The Rams TEs were targeted 43 times last year, most of those looks will go McMichael's way

Conservatively, the Rams have between 130-160 targets that can go to Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael without Bruce or Holt losing any looks.

Positives

• Bruce remains at the top of his game, with 74 catches and 1,098 yards last year while averaging an impressive 14.8 yards per reception
• Marc Bulger is one of the NFL's best and most prolific passers
• Drew Bennett is a decidedly mediocre receiver, and is probably a downgrade fro Kevin Curtis, much less a threat to his P.T.

Negatives

• Bruce will be 35 this season, and one never knows when age will finally take its toll (as it did with Joe Horn last year it seemed)
• Bruce is no longer the scoring threat he once was, scoring just 3 times in consecutive seasons
• The Rams are very balanced offensively, there could be games where Bruce isn't doesn't do much if anything and plays decoy

Final Thoughts

Drew Bennett is being drafted ahead of Isaac Bruce in many leagues, and that's absurd. Yes, Bennett is younger but he's also a mediocre receiver who couldn't outperform Bruce in the last few seasons despite being the Titans clear WR1. Bennett is going to be asked (and will likely fall short) of replacing Kevin Curtis' production, not Isaac Bruce. Unlike other veteran receivers (e.g., Moulds, McCardell), Bruce's underlying skills remain elite and he once again represents ENORMOUS fantasy value. He should be a lock for top 25 fantasy numbers, and top 20 in PPR leagues, yet is going in the mid 40s according to our ADP data. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Blue-Kun:
People tend to overrate and have huge optimism for guys who have done shown flashes of greatness (See David Boston every year) and then 'haven't had the chance' to show it again or haven't performed to expectations since a big year. In this case people are referencing like 3-4 games a year / the 3 game stretch with Volek. So they figure when he moves to a team like STL it's because Bennett is clearly amazing, he'll excel in such a great passing attack, blah blah. Bruce is old, every year you see a couple of older WR that get looked over because they believe that this is the year they fall off. Just look at Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn. Unless you really think Bruce is done, and there's no good reason to think that at the moment, there's absolutely no reason Bennett should be going near Bruce.

kensat30:
Isaac Bruce is going way too late in drafts this year. He is the definition of the "unsexy" pick. There is no stud upside there, but there is no "sleeper" downside either. This guy should just not be available as late as he is. Are people afraid of another Keenan McCardell or Joe Horn? I guess old WRs tend to score people off, but Bruce has already had one resurgence in his career AND he is only as old as Marvin Harrison.. Just think back to a couple years ago when everyone had written off Rod Smith and were rewarded with an every week starter at WR#3 in a late round. Isaac Bruce is going to be the same age this year as Rod Smith was that year.

rzrback77:
First off, St. Louis lost their WR3 and WR4 in the off-season, so Bennett by default should get more looks than Curtis did, if the WR targets stay the same. Next, St. Louis has a history of using their WRs and ignoring their TEs. I think that folks will grab McMichael too early and he will disappoint. Last, I think that grabbing both Bruce and Bennett late is a great strategy. Bruce should hold off Bennett and be the obvious WR2 for the Rams. But, if either Holt or Bruce get hurt then Bennett will have a huge opportunity and will vastly outproduce his ADP. I also think that Bennett will increase his production in a system that suits his abilities.

Isaac Bruce Projections