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Spotlight - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

There is no denying that Ronnie Brown is one of the most supremely talented running backs to enter the league in a long time. His two-year run as Miami's featured back has been very up-and-down, due to poor conditioning habits to a porous offensive line to awful quarterback play to the presence of Ricky Williams. There are, obviously, numerous factors that play into the result of Brown failing to live up to the enormous hype to this point.

After a very solid rookie campaign running in tandem with the aforementioned Williams, Brown appeared set to break out in a big way in 2006. He had the running back job all to himself, the Dolphins were seemingly a team ready to take a step forward under Nick Saban, and with a year of experience under his belt, Brown looked to be on the fast-track to stardom. But what happened along the way is that that Miami offense never did get off the ground. The team struggled mightily out of the gate. Free agent QB Daunte Culpepper was a bigger bust than Keeley Hazell. The offensive line failed to gel early on, and Brown was never really able to get into a good rhythm for the season. To top it all off, he missed Weeks 13, 14, and 15 with a broken hand.

The off-season didn't bring much better news (at least initially). Head coach Nick Saban was hired away by Alabama to become the Crimson Tide head man. The QB situation was very muddied, with no one quite sure what was going to happen with Daunte Culpepper. Fill-in Joey Harrington left for Atlanta, leaving the Dolphins without a signal-caller that they could rely on to at least be in uniform by training camp. And Pro Bowl tight end Randy McMichael headed off to Saint Louis to reunite with Scott Linehan. Yet despite the tumultuous off-season, there are reasons for optimism in Miami.

First-time head coach Cam Cameron was hired away from the San Diego Chargers, where he served as offensive coordinator under one of the most explosive offenses the league has seen in recent seasons. Under his watch, LaDainian Tomlinson turned in one of the greatest seasons in league history and the offense went from average to the best in the league. While Brown's talent level is not quite on the level of Tomlinson, a significant spike in production would not be a shock. The team used its first round pick on Ohio State's exciting wideout Ted Ginn. And shortly thereafter, Trent Green was acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs to be the new QB. How these changes will affect Brown are of great significance to his 2007 prospects.

Positives

• He might not have put up mind-blowing stats a year ago, but keep in mind that he put up those numbers over 13 games. Projecting his season stats out over a 16 game pace results in 1,240 yards rushing, 340 yards receiving, and six touchdowns. Those 194 fantasy points would have landed him squarely in the top ten a year ago, and he did in fact finish twelfth amongst RBs on a PPG basis.
• Brown has got outstanding skills, and there is a reason he was the second overall pick out of Auburn two years ago. There is nothing he can't do on the field.
• The Miami offense is expected to be much improved under new head coach Cam Cameron, new QB Trent Green, and electric WR Ted Ginn. The overall offensive improvement should mean better production for everyone and far more scoring chances.
• The Dolphins' offensive line, which has been a huge trouble spot during Brown's brief tenure thus far, showed definite signs of improvement last year and is expected to be much better in 2007.

Negatives

• Brown has to be drafted higher than other players with similar statistics simply because of his pedigree. So there is not as much value to drafting Brown unless he does in fact bust out.
• Backup Lorenzo Booker is an outstanding talent in his own right. Booker isn't expected to fill the typical backup role; he's likely to have a role all his own. As a terrific pass catcher, he could see a large bulk of the RB receptions.
• Brown has had some trouble keeping himself in top physical condition. In fact, he showed up to spring minicamp overweight. He should be able to get himself in shape by training camp, but it does call into question the commitment Brown has to be truly great.

Final Thoughts

There is little reason to believe Brown will regress any in 2007. He has made several comments regarding how productive Tomlinson was in San Diego, and stated that he wants to do a lot of the same things LT was able to do. Of course, saying you want to do them and actually following up with it are two vastly different things, but at least at this point Brown is not setting the bar low for himself.

The addition of Trent Green to the mix in place of Joey Harrington cannot be overestimated. While Green is certainly on the downside of his career, Harrington never actually had anything BUT a downside. That single offensive change will result in far more scoring chances and many more sustained drives for the Dolphins than they've had the past few years. Cameron will also be a welcome addition, and his dedication to the offense will be a significant upgrade to Nick Saban's dedication to the Alabama job.

I don't know that Brown comes out and puts up top-5 numbers this year. After all, it's still a transition period with a new coaching staff and quarterback, and the offensive line, though improved, is still something of a work in progress. But there is enough there to suggest that the Dolphins may finally be ready to take a large step forward offensively, with Brown reaping the majority of the rewards.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

guderian:
Brown had 6 games with 15 or fewer carries last year and most of those were fairly close games. To me this showed the Saban was over his head in the NFL since he preferred to put the game in the hands of Cleo Lemon or Joey Harrington. Brown's QB and OL situation shouldn't be any worse than last year and I expect him to prove that he's a true bell cow back this year.

Jedimaster21:
I think his upside is limited by the Dolphin's O line, and he doesn't have 60-70 catch potential anymore due to Lorenzo Booker's presence. I also think it will be hard for him to put up elite numbers if the offense doesn't improve. All this being said, I still think he has elite speed and power, and is pretty elusive for his size. I think he will take a step forward this year with Cam Cameron.

rzrback77:
Ronnie Brown was drafted 2nd overall out of Auburn where he was very successful in a RBBC co-star role with Cadillac Williams. There were questions at the time of that draft about both he and Cadillac "stepping up" to a starring role in the NFL.

Now fast forward to the summer of 2007 and Ronnie Brown has a new coach again to learn some new systems, but he still has a poor offensive line. In two seasons, he had a rookie year where he played in 15 games having only three with twenty or more carries and last year played in thirteen games, with five having twenty or more carries.

He also has only five TDS in each of his first two seasons. He has been an adequate receiver, but with the acquisition of Lorenzo Booker, I see the same or possible less involvement in the passing game for Ronnie Brown.

Now come stories of his weight being close to 240. FBG's player page has him at 223. He's too heavy to keep his speed and to me that was his strength, much more than a power runner.

I just keep seeing too few carries and a poor offensive line adding up to another sub-par season for Ronnie Brown.

Ronnie Brown Projections