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Spotlight - WR Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Reggie Brown showed solid growth across a variety of metrics in his 2nd season, but is his trajectory enough to warrant consideration as a top-20 fantasy wideout in 2007?

First, let's review his accomplishments through his first two seasons:

• Targets: 79 times (2005) vs. 91 times (2006)
• Receptions: 43 reception (2005) vs. 46 receptions (2006)
• Receiving Yards: 571 yards (2005) vs. 816 yards (2006)
• Yards per Reception: 13.3 (2005) vs. 17.7 (2006)
• Touchdowns: 4 (2005) vs. 8 (2006)
• Fantasy Points: 82 (2005) vs. 138 (2006)

Brown took a major leap forward in his average yards per reception, doubled his touchdown production, and became a legitimate fantasy option a season ago. On the flip side, he only converted 51% of his targets into receptions and only caught 3 more receptions over his rookie haul.

Aside from the continued natural progression typical of a young receiver, there are two major differences between Reggie Brown's situation this year and last.

1) Out with Donte Stallworth, In with Kevin Curtis -- Donte Stallworth was an explosive option when his hamstrings didn't keep him on the sidelines. In just 12 games played, Stallworth hauled in 725 yards and 5 touchdowns, averaging an astounding 19.1 yards per catch. In his place, the reliable but diminutive Kevin Curtis, who gets the chance to start after playing 3rd fiddle in St. Louis for the last few seasons. One look at Curtis (5'11", 186 pounds) and you might write him off as a red zone threat; yet that would be a mistake.

• 6 of Curtis' 12 career touchdowns have been in the red zone; an impressive 50% clip (including all four of his scores last season)

2) Jeff Garcia is a Buccaneer -- Last year, when Donovan McNabb went down to injury Jeff Garcia stepped in and played at a Pro Bowl level. Brown's numbers with Garcia under center were roughly equivalent to when McNabb was the signal caller. This year, the backup situation is less clear. A.J. Feeley, Kelly Holcomb and rookie Kevin Kolb will vie for the backup spots. Can any of them approximate Garcia's productivity? Obviously this is a moot point if McNabb stays healthy, but he's missed 13 regular season games in the last two seasons.

At the end of the day, we know the Eagles are going to throw a lot and Reggie Brown is now viewed as the team's clear cut WR1. It's difficult to dislike his upside, but there are risk factors which suggest his improvement may be more muted than some expect.

Positives

• Brown is young, in his prime, and the first option on one of the league's top passing offenses
• When healthy, Donovan McNabb is among the league's best passers
• Brown displayed both the ability to beat defensive backs deep and get yards after the catch on crossing routes a year ago

Negatives

• The Eagles passing attacked is balanced, and RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith and free agent WR Kevin Curtis are sure to be oft targeted
• McNabb is a major injury risk and the Eagles backup QB situation isn't as comforting as last season when Jeff Garcia stepped in and played well
• Brown struggled at times against more physical defensive backs, and must work harder against press coverage

Final Thoughts

Reggie Brown is currently being drafted around WR20, in the 5th or 6th round of 12-team redraft leagues. That seems just about right for the 3rd-year receiver. On one hand, he's the top WR for a pass-happy West Coast offense with a Pro Bowl QB throwing to him. On the other hand, the team has other legitimate weapons and McNabb is an injury risk to say the least. Don't expect Brown to top last year's 8 TD catches, but do expect his catch and yardage totals to improve. At the end of the day, he forecasts as a solid WR2 and a downright scary fantasy WR3. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

benbadman:
Ok so 2007, the Eagles lose Stallworth, they add Kevin Curtis. So Reggie Brown is still probably their biggest passing TD option, even though Westbrook led the team in receptions and LJ smith also had 50 grabs. I think some of Westbrooks touches are reduced to keep him healthy and effective all season long, so if Westbrook only has 60 receptions like in 2005, Brown gets a few more targets. Brown also benefits from another productive offseason and being in the same offensive system as last year.

Reggie Brown 2007 projection
60 receptions 1020 yards 10 TDs combined (9rec 1 rush)-- still maintains his 17 yard average

Think Fred Barnett & Calvin Williams type numbers in their 90s heyday. With Reggie Brown you get a solid WR2 or a great WR3 play. I find it hard to predict a reception total higher than the 60s, when he is basically Option 2.5 in their passing game behind Westbrook and right there with LJ smith. If your league rewards *big play* TDs or long receptions, Reggie Brown is a good guy to have, 6 of his 46 catches were 40+ yards. McNabb finds a way to get this UGA receiver the deep ball, and over time I see Brown developing into a consistent receiver like fellow Bulldog alum Hines Ward.

shadyridr:
I was high on Brown last year but am down on him this year. I just think with McNabb's return from injury and their success late last year that Philly will be more of a running team. And Brown is basically just a deep threat. But he does have a nose for the endzone.

bostonfred:
In five years, Brian Westbrook has broken the 1000 yard rushing mark once, last year. He's broken 200 carries once, last year. He's broken 10 TDs two times, one of which was, you guessed it, last year. So the question is, why did Westbrook have his career year in 2006?

Westbrook had 613 yards for 4 rush TDs in his first eight games before McNabb went down. He had 858 and 6 rush TDs in his next eight games with Garcia. A big part of the reason why is that Westbrook ran the ball 119 times with McNabb. He had 153 with Garcia. Westbrook had caught 41 passes in his first eight games with McNabb. He had 40 passes in his next eight with Garcia. He had 438 receiving yards with McNabb, compared with 262 under Garcia.

Overall, the Eagles gave Westbrook four more touches per game with Garcia under center than they did with McNabb, who averaged just under four rushes per game. So the idea that Westbrook is taking on a bigger role with the team seems faulty to me - he just picked up the rushes that McNabb used to get.

As for the idea that Stallworth was the guy who took all of Reggie Brown's catches, I'm not so sure I agree with that, either. Stallworth had 38 catches last year. Brown had 46. I don't expect Brown to get all 38 of those catches - LJ Smith, Westbrook, and their #2 WR are all going to get some. But I do expect Brown to get more catches as the #1 in that offense. 60 receptions seems about right. Last year's Y/R seems a little high, too. Even if he maintains his 17.7 yards per reception (compared with 13.3 his rookie season) that will barely have him cracking 1000 yards. I like his TD production, though, and that may be what makes him a good mid round pick.

Reggie Brown Projections