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Spotlight - QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

We all know the story by now. Brees, drafted in the second round out of Purdue by the San Diego Chargers, flounders for several seasons attempting to take over the starting gig. The Chargers, fed up with his progress, acquire Philip Rivers to be their QB of the future. Rivers holds out, Brees is forced back into the starting role, and leads the Chargers to the postseason and has a Pro Bowl year. A year later, he is badly injured and leaves the Chargers for the Saints. In his first year in New Orleans, he puts up statistics that rival any quarterback in the league.

So have we pretty much covered everything?

Of course, the story is a bit more complicated than that and involved many more twists and turns along the way. But that is basically the story of Brees' career to this point. He led the Saints to the NFC South division title and all the way to the NFC Championship game, where his team lost to the Chicago Bears. Along the way, Brees made his mark by becoming only the 20th quarterback ever to throw for 4,400 yards in a single season. Included in that 4,400 yard total was a stretch of games in which he threw for 275, 383, 314, 398, 510, and 349 yards in succession. After a one week lull against the Niners, he came back to rack up 384 more yards -- oh and five touchdowns -- against the Cowboys. Brees truly put on a season for the ages. What made it all the more amazing is that it very nearly never started.

In the final game of the 2005 season, Brees had his shoulder rolled up on the field at Denver in what was a meaningless game. The injury was at first thought to be potentially career-ending. Several teams had interest in signing Brees to a free agent deal, but only New Orleans would pay the money he eventually got. The gamble proved to be worthwhile and then some, as Brees' arrival combined with the recovery from Hurricane Katrina to reinvigorate the entire city of New Orleans.

Entering 2007, it's clear that the Saints still have more than enough firepower to boast one of the league's top offenses. But will all that firepower result in similar fantasy stats for the quarterback, or was last year an aberration (even just a slight one)?

Positives

• The Saints should still feature one of the league's most explosive passing attacks, and for that matter, overall offenses.
• Brees is an excellent decision-maker, and poised and calm in the pocket. He has drastically reduced his turnover ratio from the early part of his career, and is the perfect complement to an offense featuring so many dynamic playmakers.
• Unlike in 2006, Brees enters camp 100% healthy this season. The extra practice time and reps with his teammates can only be seen as a positive for a team that was already so good to begin with.

Negatives

• Unlike in 2006, expectations are now sky-high for Brees and the Saints. While he snuck up on some people as a dynamite fantasy QB last year, he'll have no such situation this year. Now, people expect greatness. That not only puts pressure on Brees; it also means it'll be tough to get good value where you have to take him.
• Despite being 100% healthy right now, Brees did suffer a dislocated elbow in the Pro Bowl. The injury isn't expected to affect him this summer or this season, but it does serve as a reminder that the somewhat undersized Brees is a bit more of an injury risk than some of the other top QBs.
• Brees may have fewer opportunities to throw the ball this year. Consider that Brees didn't throw fewer than 28 passes in a single game last year (not counting the Week 17 throwaway game), and you begin to wonder if some of the defensive improvements the Saints have made will create fewer shootouts. Fewer shootouts = more ball control = fewer 45 pass, 500+ yard, 5 touchdown outings.

Final Thoughts

It'll be tough to repeat the numbers Brees put up in 2006, simply due to a regression to the mean. Not for his quality of play, mind you; just that the Saints will be hard-pressed to put the ball in the air that many times. Reggie Bush also came on very strong in the second half of the season, and while that will help Brees' quality of play it could also mean a slight reduction in his touchdown passes (with the thinking being that Bush will score a few more on the ground than in '06).

Personally, I don't see New Orleans throwing the football that many times again. They had the fifth-highest passing total in the league last year, and I think that's a bit of an aberration for a team that features TWO Pro Bowl caliber running backs and an improving defense. I think the Saints will get back to a bit more of a ball control offense this season, or at least attempt to. That should result in plenty of great scoring chances and lots of sustained drives for the Saints, but not necessarily 4,400 yards worth of passing. I'd still like to have Brees as a part of my fantasy team, but not necessarily at the high price he'll be going for. If he falls a bit (unlikely, I know) then I wouldn't hesitate to grab him because I think he's one of the surest bets amongst quarterbacks to put up stellar numbers. I just don't know that I want to chase them in the third round.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

guderian:
What about next year=better than last year?

--This time last year Drew Brees was learning a new system and personnel yet he still couldn't throw the ball as he recovered from labrum surgery. This year he's 100%.
--The Saints were the top offense in yardage, but only #5 in points. Why was that? Partially because of the strong running game, but also because they lacked consistency at Tight End. I think Eric Johnson is hugely under-rated going into this year and he'll improve Brees' TD total in 2007. In the 4 years prior to Payton joining the Saints, he's TEs averaged close to 900 yards and 6 TDs per season. Adding a pass catching TE to this offense is scary.
--Colston, Bush, Copper, and Henderson were all un-proven going into last year and McAllister was coming off of a knee injury. The team had a new coach and had spent the prior season as vagabonds. This off season has been about stability. On offense their only loss was Horn (37 receptions) and they added Meachem and Eric Johnson.

The only negative I see is that the Saints played one of the easiest passing SOS last year and regression to the mean indicates a tougher schedule in 2007. I see a slight decline in yardage, but an increase in TDs and INTs.

Voice of Reason:
Having watched Payton call plays for every game last year, he WANTS to throw it every play. In the 2nd half of games that are close or the Saints are down, he will abandon the running game. The Philly game in the playoffs was shocking that he stuck with the run so much, but even then he still called a healthy amount of passing plays with the running game being so effective. The only way I see Payton calling a lot of runs is if the Saints get an early big lead on teams and run it out in the 2nd half. This team is horrible at causing turnovers and the special teams weren't explosive last year (except for the Bush PR vs Tampa) so I don't think they can jump on a team early without Brees getting big numbers. Payton is a very agressive playcaller, rarely is he content to run and sit on a lead. The suprise onside kick against Dallas with the lead really showed his personality last season.

rzrback77:
Drew Brees is this year's darling addition to the top of the QB rankings. He had an awesome season for the Saints last year completing 356 of 554 passes (64.3%) for 4,418 yards (8.0 ypa) 26 TDs and 11 ints. He finished the year as QB #2 in FBG Scoring, in a career year.

It should be pointed out that the yards per attempt of 8.0 was the 13th highest for ALL QBs in the five previous seasons. Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Donovan McNabb each posted higher averages twice in that same five year period.

Another factor that folks look at with the QB scoring is consistency. We don't want the goose egg games as those are killers in HTH. Again using FBG Scoring and looking at Brees over the past three years....

04 3159 passing yds 27 TDs 7 ints finished 11th QB 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 1 more between 10 & 15
05 3576 passing yds 24 TDs 15 ints finished 7th QB 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 4 more between 10 & 15
06 4418 passing yds 26 TDs 11 ints finished 2nd QB 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 4 more between 10 & 15

Pretty solid numbers and improvement each season, but a few clunker games

Now, let's look at others 06 consistency

06 Favre - 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 2 more between 10 & 15
06 Grossman - 4 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 2 more between 10 & 15
06 E Manning - 2 gms < 10 fantasy pts and 5 more between 10 & 15

A little less inconsistent scoring with Brees, but the above three are supposed to be the poster children for Inconsistency and there's not that big a difference.

Throw in the fact that Brees is going on average as QB #4 at the 41st pick, I'm not seeing the justification.

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