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Spotlight - QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Tom Brady dates a supermodel, has three Super Bowl rings and myriad endorsements. His life is, to say the least, charmed. But yet somehow I feel like the guy doesn't get the respect he deserves as a fantasy football player. He's a stone cold lock for at least 60% completions, 3,500 yards passing, 24 TD passes and half as many interceptions. He's a low risk top-5 fantasy QB who can be had a round or two later than the other "elite" passers.

Just to put a finer point on how consistent Brady has been, let's pay homage to his passer numbers over the last five years:
 

• 2002 -- 373 of 601 for 3,764 yards (62% comps) with 28 TDs and 14 Ints
• 2003 -- 317 of 527 for 3,620 yards (60% comps) with 23 TDs and 12 Ints
• 2004 -- 288 of 474 for 3,692 yards (61% comps) with 28 TDs and 14 Ints
• 2005 -- 334 of 530 for 4,110 yards (63% comps) with 26 TDs and 14 Ints
• 2006 -- 319 of 516 for 3,529 yards (62% comps) with 24 TDs and 12 Ints
• Average -- 326 of 530 for 3,743 yards (62% comps) with 26 TDs and 13 Ints

As if those numbers weren't compelling enough, I see very little reason why Brady won't handily exceed his prior career highs in almost every stat. The stars are aligned for Brady to enjoy an MVP-season, and provide tremendous return to fantasy owners in the process

Factor 1: Extreme Wide Receiver Makeover

When you consider Brady's numbers in the context of his receiving options, it's all the more impressive. He's had one 1,000-yard receiver in his career, Troy Brown (2001). His leading receiver last year? -- Reche Caldwell (61 receptions for 760 yards and 4 TDs). The same Caldwell who, in four years as a Charger, never caught more than 28 passes.

This year, the receiving corps goes from a curse to a blessing:

• Randy Moss (still the most productive receiver in league history through this point of his career),
• Donte Stallworth (deep threat extraordinaire),
• Wes Welker (tough-minded, sure-handed possession machine), and
• Kelley Washington (as physically imposing a 4^th WR you'll find in the league)

This quartet has come aboard in the most dramatic remake of a WR corps we've seen in ages. Any way you slice it, Brady will have more talented targets in any formation. As if that weren't enough, the team has a trio of talented TEs (Ben Watson, Kyle Brady and Dave Thomas) and every RB on the depth chart is a capable receiver (Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans).

Factor 2: The Loss of Corey Dillon

Corey Dillon wasn't retained, and with him goes 13 rushing touchdowns and a proven short yardage back. While 2^nd year Laurence Maroney is being counted on to pick up the slack, the one area where Maroney doesn't measure up to Dillon is as a goal-line back. Maroney converted only 3 of 8 goal-line rushes last year, versus Dillon's 9 of 13. While Maroney may improve in his 2^nd season, it still stands to reason Brady will be given a handful more chances to throw in the red zone; particularly given the quality of his new targets in that part of the field.

Factor 3: The Aging Defense

The Patriots signed Adalius Thomas this offseason, which was arguably the best free agent defensive addition available. However, Thomas by himself may not be enough to offset an incredibly old linebacking corps. If disgruntled CB Asante Samuel refuses to report, the Patriots defense could take a step backward. A weaker defense equals more pressure on the offense to win games; something that would clearly lead to more opportunities for Brady and his corps.

Positives

• Brady has been consistently productive; having averaged 3,743 yards and 26 TDs over the last five seasons
• The WR corps has been made over, and is light years improved from top (Moss) to bottom (Welker and Washington)
• The loss of Corey Dillon and an aging defense could mean more passing attempts, and a higher pass/run ratio in the red zone

Negatives

• Brady must adjust to four new wideouts and a new tight end, which could lead to an inconsistent start of the season
• If Laurence Maroney's shoulder doesn't hold up, the Patriots could be forced into a one-dimensional offensive philosophy; which may lead to more sacks and turnovers
• The team won't hesitate to win games the old fashioned way when applicable, so if the defense fails to show its age, Brady may post an occasionally pedestrian box score

Final Thoughts

There's absolutely no reason Tom Brady couldn't finish as the top fantasy QB this season. Even if you're not willing to project that, I can't envision how he fails to deliver top-5 numbers barring injury. A massive improvement in his weapons, a less effective goal-line back, a slightly aging defense and a veteran's mastery of his playbook equate to predictable excellence. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Tom Brady is a worry free pick. He is very consistent game to game and he has started 16 games per year in each of the previous seasons. His stats for those five years:

02 - 373 comp 601 pass att 3764 yds (6.3 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 110 rush yds 1 TD QB #9
03 - 317 comp 527 pass att 3620 yds (6.9 ypa) 23 TDs 12 ints 63 rush yds 1 TD QB #11
04 - 288 comp 474 pass att 3692 yds (7.8 ypa) 28 TDs 14 ints 28 rush yds 0 TD QB #10
05 - 334 comp 530 pass att 4110 yds (7.8 ypa) 26 TDs 14 ints 89 rush yds 1 TD QB #2
06 - 319 comp 516 pass att 3529 yds (6.8 ypa) 24 TDs 12 ints 102 rush yds 0 TD QB #7

Now, the problems. He has many new weapons, including Randy Moss, Stallworth, Welker, and solid receiving options at RB and TE. Expectations are high and Brady will be drafted high, too high. He will be drafted earlier than in previous years when he already went rather high. He is listed as the QB3 and will frequently be drafted in the third round or even higher. He will not improve much on previous year stats and could even do worse. Both Stallworth and Randy Moss have a tendency to pout and bring down a team. That possibility is there and even if that is not the case, New England has RB options and will probably continue to run the football and their defense is improved so scoring could also be lowered just based on need.

Jon_Moore:
Moss, Welker and Stallworth are obvious upgrades in talent. But, I'm not sold that Brady's going to experience a massive uptick in production. If there was ever an underacheiver, it's certainly Moss. He's been lazy, and he's not the same guy he used to be. Blame it on a lack of a qb, if you like, but he's just not the same. Stallworth has great speed and shows a knack for making plays, but he usually manages to find some nagging injury to take him out of his game. Welker is a guy I like, but he's not going to set the world on fire. Don't get me wrong, there's a great bunch of talent here, but I don't believe New England is about to turn into Indy or Cincinatti.

Brady has however been money in the bank for years. Both in fantasy and real life. Doesn't miss games, rarely if ever does he dissappoint on Sunday.

shadyridr:
He should be a top 5 QB this year. I got him ranked 4th behind Manning, Palmer, and Brees. He has all the weapons. Star WRs in Moss, Stallworth, and Welker. Even if Moss gets hurt there is still enough depth at WR to not hurt him. His has top TEs in Watson and Thomas. And he has a top notch pass catching RB in Faulk. On top of that he has an iffy RB situation so they may need to pass the ball a lot this year. I think its safe to say Brady will be a stud this year.

Tom Brady Projections