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Spotlight - WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 7/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

If Dwayne Bowe landed on a team that focused more on the passing game, not to mention the wide receiving game, I would feel more confident about his chances in his rookie campaign. Consequently, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Dwayne Bowe as the 23^rd overall pick and 3^rd WR taken in the 2007 NFL Draft. Bowe, who is a work in progress to begin with, likely won't amount to much in terms of fantasy production in his first year as a pro. He was drafted to eventually take over for Eddie Kennison, but with Kennison still on the roster; Bowe will learn, study and learn some more about what is required to be a pro receiver in the NFL. Keep in mind, Kennison has led all wide receivers (excluding TE Tony Gonzalez) in receptions and receiving yards on Kansas City for each of the last 5 seasons.

Kansas City's offensive tendencies 2006 season:

(Herm Edwards' first season as head coach for the Chiefs)

443 pass attempts

• 222 attempts to wide receivers (Eddie Kennison -- 101, Samie Parker -- 68, Dante Hall -- 40, Others -- 13)
• 137 attempts to tight ends (Tony Gonzalez -- 103, Kris Wilson -- 24, Jason Dunn -- 10)
• 84 attempts to running backs (Larry Johnson -- 66, Michael Bennett -- 12, Others -- 6)

513 rushing attempts

• 416 attempts for Larry Johnson
• 36 attempts for Michael Bennett
• 61 attempts for others

So should you forget about Dwayne Bowe this season? From a fantasy standpoint of reliability? Probably so. At least don't count on him to reach any lofty goals. But then again, did we see Michael Clayton's 80 receptions coming in 2004? How about Anquan Boldin's eye-popping 101 receptions in 2003? Clayton's big rookie year was a product of leading receiver Keenan McCardell moving to San Diego and thus an open spot presented itself. Anquan Boldin was a result of David Boston's knee injury that paved the way for the rookie to literally own the field. Nothing of the sort is the case for the Chiefs. Eddie Kennison will be back and the Chiefs are a run-first, throw-to-Gonzalez-second type of team. The chances of Bowe joining those other anomalies is slim to none in my opinion.

Positives

• Dwayne Bowe was drafted to be the wide receiver of the future for the Kansas City Chiefs. Tony Gonzalez and Eddie Kennison will eventually slow down and the Chiefs will need a replacement as the go-to receiver. Dwayne Bowe was available when their draft slot came and they rolled the dice
• Kansas City has not had a wide receiver with the talent of Dwayne Bowe in quite some time, maybe ever. He's there for a reason and the Chiefs will likely design plays for him, but he's going to have a learning curve. Definitely keep track of his pre-season performances. If he's catching 4-5 balls per game then take a deeper look
• As far as comparisons go -- size, quickness and athletic talent, he's in the mold of a Muhsin Muhammad, Rod Gardner or Mark Clayton
• Dwayne Bowe's words: How would you describe yourself as a wide receiver? "I'm intimidating and when I'm on the field everybody knows that I'm going to work whether it is catching, blocking or running. Whatever it takes to win; that's what I add to the team. Most people look at me as a big dominating blocker who can catch the ball and do something with it. I see myself as an all-around receiver."

Negatives

• Kansas City's QB situation is completely up in the air. With Trent Green in Miami the Chiefs are leaning on Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle to run the offense. Huard has the most experience of the two by far, but without a sure-fire capable QB, the Chiefs may rely even more on the legs of Larry Johnson, which could result in even less production from Dwayne Bowe
• Rookie wide receivers generally don't find their stride until their 2nd or in most cases, their 3rd year in the NFL. There are exceptions i.e Terry Glenn, Michael Clayton and Anquan Boldin, but for the most part, rookie wide receivers struggle to reach even 50 receptions in their first year
• Last year under the watchful intentions of head coach Herm Edwards, the Chiefs ran the ball 70 times more than they passed. That does not bode well for any receiver on the team, let alone a rookie WR3 that will be behind not only the other receivers in terms of targets, but also TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Larry Johnson

Final Thoughts

Tidbit:

Michael Clayton (80 receptions in rookie year), Eddie Kennison (Chiefs starting WR1) and Dwayne Bowe (rookie 23rd overall pick) -- All went to LSU. I'm just saying 

Whereas you don't want to write off any rookie wide receiver in this day and age in the NFL, the likelihood of Dwayne Bowe being a fantasy mainstay in 2007 is very unlikely. I'm all for considering all angles and variables, but the 2007 Kansas City Chiefs don't how any signs of changing their offensive strategy. I don't think Dwayne Bowe will be pushed under the rug all season. I think he'll gradually learn the offense and eventually he'll be a foal point of the Chiefs passing game. But that's likely not until 2008 or 2009.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Afro Samurai:
I have a problem with predicting a nice year for Bowe given the current QB/OL situation in KC, but he does have all the tools (minus elite speed).

shadyridr:
I wont claim to know much about him. But I do know this is a bad team with an average O-Line, bad QBs, and a running mentality. I wouldnt expect much from this rookie this year.

This morning I have just read the Calvin Johnson vs the rest of the rookie WR thread and then moved over to the Player Spotlight. I decided to discuss Dwayne Bowe. In the CJ vs the rest of the rookie WR thread, Bowe is probably one of the two or three mentioned that has a chance to outperform CJ. I think that a lot of folks are just searching for something unique so that they can add to the discussion. Reading that thread it was possible to believe that Bowe or Jarrett had the opportunity to surpass CJ this year. But over here, all the projections are low and lower. Sorry for the lengthy introduction, but it was interesting to me.

I think that Bowe will struggle big time. A lot of folks are penciling him in as the WR #2 in KC, but that would be a great accomplishment for Bowe and EVEN IF that happens, let's examine the potential.

I reviewed the Chiefs' WR Stats from 2002 to 2006. Eddie Kennison was the leader in all five years. His best season was 05 and he caught only 68 passes for 1104 yds and 5 TDs. He only had two seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards. He averaged 58 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TDs. He was the team's leading WR in all five years and he returns. Their second ranked WR was used far less than their first. Johnny Morton was the only guy that had over 100 fantasy points and that happened twice in the five year period at 107 and 101. Samie Parker has been the second WR for the past two years and his catches improved from 36 to 41 last year and he is still there.

Lots has already been said about the changes and probably efficiency decrease of the offensive line and they will either have a first time starter or a guy known as a career back-up at the QB spot in 07. You combine this paragraph with the previous one, and I don't see the potential for a rookie in 07. I think LJ hopes that he sees somebody step up as an RB while he is resting during some of the preseason camps or he may see even more carries this year than last.

Dwayne Bowe Projections