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Spotlight - WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 8/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Anquan Boldin is a special player, who gets unfairly overshadowed by his receiving mate, Larry Fitzgerald. While Fitzgerald is a special receiver in his own right, with a lofty pedigree as a high 1st round draft pick, Boldin has been playing at a Pro Bowl level consistently, and he's been doing it for longer.

Comparing Boldin vs. Fitzgerald in each key receiving category reveals their relative strengths:

• Receptions per game: Boldin (6.1) vs. Fitzgerald (5.1)
• Yards per game: Boldin (82.2) vs. Fitzgerald (69.7)
• Yards per reception: Boldin (13.5) vs. Fitzgerald (13.6)
• TD receptions per game: Boldin (0.36) vs. Fitzgerald (0.53)

As you can see, Boldin has the slight edge in receptions and yardage, but gets pretty handily beat  by Fitzgerald in the all-important touchdown category. When you remove Boldin's rookie season (when Fitz was still in college) from the equation, their scoring disparity is even more pronounced:

• TD receptions per game: Boldin (0.30) vs. Fitzgerald (0.53)

So, as much as it pains me to say it, Fitzgerald probably is the better overall receiver, at least for fantasy purposes. In leagues that award points per reception, the gap is a bit tighter.

But evaluating Boldin this year isn't simply about whether he will outperform Fitzgerald, it's also about the impact new head coach Ken Whisenhunt and his coaching staff will have on the run/pass ratio. Whisenhunt and Assistant Head Coach Russ Grimm come over from Pittsburgh and want to bring the same commitment to a punishing ground game with them. But saying you want to run 500+ times and actually doing so are VERY different things.

As I said in the Matt Leinart Spotlight there is no way to know for sure how many rushing attempts the team will take, but we DO KNOW that they will run a lot more than the 2006 Cardinals did. For the sake of this conversation, I'm going to project that the Cardinals throw the ball 480-520 times this year; a big step down from the last few seasons.

The good news for Boldin and Fitzgerald owners is that Matt Leinart should continue to target them a preponderance of the time. The running backs aren't particularly noted for their receiving skills, and the Cards have no tight end of consequence. That means the due should be targeted about 250-280 times between them. At Boldin's historical target conversion rate of 58%, assuming he sees half of those targets, he slots somewhere in the 73-81 reception range over a full season.  

Positives

• Boldin has two 100+ catch seasons in his first four years in the league, give him the ball and he'll make plays
• He's among the leaders in YAC (yards after the catch) since entering the league
• Matt Leinart showed a lot of promise last year and the offense should get into the red zone more often with a better O-line and more experienced Leinart

Negatives

• Since Boldin and Fitzgerald have played together, Fitz has been the better fantasy player, scoring 2x the TDs
• Boldin has missed considerable time for a variety of maladies
• The Cardinals aren't going to throw the ball 550-600 times anymore, and those targets have to come from somewhere

Final Thoughts

I'm a fan of Anquan Boldin and think, all things being equal, he would put up top-12 type of numbers in the right offense. Unfortunately, I don't think the Cardinals are going to run that type of offense this year. The days of Boldin getting 150+ targets are, in my opinion, gone unless Larry Fitzgerald gets hurt or leaves town. That means Boldin is more likely to catch 75-85 passes versus 95-100; and given his historically poor rate of TD production; I think Boldin is closer to WR20 than he is WR10.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Rev:
Boldin is an undervalued WR heading into the 2007 season. In a situation reasonably similar to that of TJ Houshmandzadeh, Boldin is assumed to be the WR2 behind the high profile name, Larry Fitzgerald, but there is a high amount of credibility to the assertion that Boldin will end up as the Cardinal's WR1, especially when one examines the statistical record. With a variety of quarterbacks, Fitz has only 1 season with more than 69 catches and 1000 yards, while Boldin has had 3. Boldin has the ability to explode after the catch and create big plays, and he will produce more consistently as Leinart himself develops.

Jon_Moore:
He's a physical freak. He's virtually impossible to jam at the line of scrimmage, runs groute routes and makes plays after the catch. The one knock on him is the lack of tds from last year. If Leinart proves above average this year, Boldin should explode. 1400+ ifrom Mccown and Warner who combined for 20 tds and 20 ints is very impressive. I think Leinart has to be better than that. Now obviously, the presence of a legit running game will prevent 100 catches for 1500 yards, but not by a ton.

shadyridr:
I love Boldin but last year he was drafted as a WR1 but didn't perform as one. The simple fact is Fitz is the much better red zone threat. That wont stop Boldin from putting up phenomenal numbers but Boldin will have to rely on the run after the catch to score his TDs which he is probably one of the best in the game at.

Anquan Boldin Projections