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Spotlight - WR Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Bernard Berrian was a speed demon at Fresno State.  However, Berrian is much more than just a "speed" guy.  He has tremendous athletic ability, and incredible body control.  He can make moves on defenders that seemingly break ankles.  Using his explosive burst, Berrian can get to top speed in a hurry and blow by unsuspecting defenders.  He is hard to tackle after the catch and can elude most defenders in the open field.  Bernard is a student of the game, and carries that intelligence to the field.  He is a film junkie that knows how to study tendencies of defensive backs, and he knows how to exploit them as well. 

Berrian has battled injuries throughout his entire college and pro career.  In 2002, he sprained his knee and missed the entire season.  He has worked hard to regain his speed after that injury.  During his time with Chicago he has been banged up as well.  Last season he sustained a rib injury that caused him to miss one game.  When he came back after the injury he seemed slowed down by the pain.  He disappeared from the stat sheet for one week, which allowed Mark Bradley to emerge as the team's deep threat, while Berrian nursed his sore ribs.  In order to stay among the best 32 fantasy WRs in the league, Berrian will have to work to improve his durability.      

Questions about Bernard Berrian coming into 2007:

Q: Does he emerge as the #1 target in Chicago?
A: Last season, Muhsin Muhammad was still the Bears leading receiver in targets (117) and receptions (60).  Berrian was close behind in both categories (101 and 51, respectively) and had he not missed a game due to injury he might have ended up the leader in both categories.  In the event that Muhsin is targeted more, Berrian may still end up the leading receiver.  He is the team's most reliable vertical threat, which is reflected by his gaudy YPC average (almost one yard more per reception than Muhammad's in 2006).  With another season under his belt and with Muhammad not getting any younger it could be time for Berrian to be the main man in Chicago. 

Q: How will the addition of Olsen and Hester on offense affect his numbers?
A: The Bears realized the need for more offensive firepower when they went up against the Colts in Super Bowl XLI.  In the 1st round of the 2007 draft they drafted Greg Olsen (a Jeremy Shockey clone) out of the University of Miami.  It was also announced in the offseason that another former Hurricane would be joining the offense.  Devin Hester was the most explosive return man in league history, so it makes sense for the Bears to want to get him the ball more.  Hester will line up all over the field, including RB and WR.  While it's unclear whether Hester will be more playmaker or decoy, it could mean fewer opportunities for Berrian.  Olsen will cut into Desmond Clark's stat line more than Berrian's. 

Looking at the situation from a different angle, the addition of these two players could open up the defense even more for Berrian to exploit. Opposing defenses will have to pick their poison when it comes to covering the Bears.  Lock down the deep game and Hester/Olsen/Clark chew you up in the middle.  Attempt to lock down the front and expose holes in the defense over the top.  Either way, it could mean less opportunity and targets for Berrian in an offense that might not need to throw that much to begin with. 

Q: Will the Bears need to throw much?
A: The facts the Bears are a run-first team will impact Berrian's productivity more than anything else.  Not since 2002 (Marty Booker) have the Bears had a receiver go over the 1,000-yard mark.  To complicate things even more, not since 2001 (Marty Booker) has a Bears receiver had more than 8 TD catches.  RB Thomas Jones is gone to the New York Jets, but the team will still be running early and often.  Cedric Benson will get the majority of carries, with rookie Garrett Wolfe and the "other" Adrian Peterson backing him up.  Collectively this team should have near 500 carries on the season, and the passing game will play 2nd fiddle.  Also, the defense is so stifling that the Bears don't need to score many points unless it's a shootout.  If the Bears get a lead, they will then pound the ball with the running game even more. 

Q: If Grossman goes down with an injury, will Griese look his way?
A: Brian Griese is arguably a better QB than Rex Grossman, so the answer is most certainly "Yes".  Grossman stayed healthy in 2006, but it was the first time he had done that in his entire pro career.  In fact it was the first time he had lasted more than 3 games in the regular season.  One year doesn't make him Superman all of a sudden.  Grossman still has to be considered injury prone, and Brian Griese had better be ready in case of emergency.  Griese has matured 100-fold since his days in Denver, and he can lead an offense effectively if called upon.  There is no doubt that Griese would look to Berrian early and often.  His long arm isn't as lively as Grossman's, but Bernard would get the ball one way or the other.

Q: Where do you draft Berrian in a re-draft league?
Based on his current ADP, Berrian is being taken as WR32.  That is about where he should be going in your fantasy drafts, as he is expected to finish in the high 20s for the season. 

Positives

• Speed, quickness, and more speed
• The Bear's #1 deep threat
• Smooth route runner, great vision

Negatives

• Needs to work on underneath routes
• Gets nicked up and misses time
• Can be shut down by physical corners

Final Thoughts

Bernard Berrian is a good WR, but don't expect him to be an elite fantasy WR in 2007. If he can stay healthy, then he should be able to take advantage of the defensive coverage. Berrian is the type of player that plays hot. But when he's cold, to quote Rick James he's as "Cold As Ice." Watch the matchups and play Berrian when it looks as though the Bears will dominate a lesser team (see: Detroit), or it looks like there may be an offensive shootout brewing. Berrian has a place on your fantasy team, it's just not as an every week starter.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

brednbuddah:
Berrian is going to be the guy everybody wished they had drafted when they had the opportunity.

a) Yes, Chicago is a run first offense, but I don't think benson will be able to step in and run the ball effectively (and possible injury time off), which will lead to more passing opportunities.

b) Muhammad is a little long in the tooth, but will provide the second WR threat that will keep the double teams off Berrian.

c) He had a real nice showing in the playoff run that will motivate and give him the extra confidence to become an elite receiver.

The one negative I see is Grossman is either on or he's off, which will make Berrian inconsistent on a week-to-week fantasy basis, but will put together an overall great season. great value here.

CravenM:
I've watched Grossman since his birth (errr, freshman year at Florida) and he is going to throw long at least 4-5 times a game regardless of what play is called. And last year, it was almost always Berrian's number that got called when he was healthy.

If he stays healthy, his numbers should improve by 25% across the board due to Grossman playing better and Berrian getting more looks. Grossman did get in a funk in the middle of last year, not seeming to have his timing down and maybe not being confident in the called plays. But time heals all wounds - many QBs in the 1st 2 years have periods of rough starts.

I think the very solid play of the TE and RB will help the offense. And Berrian was used not only for the bombs but the crossing patterns for 1st downs.

Jon_Moore:
Grossman looked unbelievable at the beginning of last season. Then started with all the turnovers. He may never be hall of fame, but I do believe he's a good quarterback. It's reasonable to expect him to be better in his second full season as a starter. With Benson and no Jones, you have to believe they'll run it a few less times,meaning a few more passing attempts. Berrian's will benefit from all of this. He's not an 80 catch receiver, he's a big play guy. One that I believe is poised for a breakout season, but a breakout season for this guy WILL NOT mean nearly 1200 yards and 10 tds.

Bernard Berrian Projections