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Spotlight - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears

Posted on 6/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

If you were to sneak in to Dr. Frankenstein's lab with Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner and make a running back that fits the Bears system, you'd emerge with a hybrid of Earl Campbell's tough, punishing, up-the-middle style and Ricky Williams' deceptively quick open-field moves and solid frame. In other words, you'd end up with another Texas Longhorn: Cedric Benson.

It is easy to forget that Benson was a phenomenal college player. He was overshadowed by the legacy of Ricky Williams and once that started to fade, was overshadowed by the potential of Vince Young. While college isn't the NFL and lots of college stars end up as marginal NFL players, it is important to spend a moment reflecting on Benson's past. Cedric Benson finished his four year college career as the 6^th leading rusher in NCAA history. His last two seasons featured more then twenty touchdowns each. Statistics aside, Benson is one of the few players in recent memory with equal ability to make defenders miss tackles and to drag defenders long distances after first contact. In college, roughly 60% of Benson's yardage came after first contact. Consider that: Cedric Benson rushed for over 3300 yards in college after someone had gotten a hand on him.

While Benson is hardly a burner, he has good speed and an ideal frame and build for a between the tackles runner. He lets blocks develop in front of him and follows the lanes created by the play. Benson is much more agile and shifty then he's given credit for. Similarly, for a person of his size -- six feet tall and 220 pounds -- Benson is able to navigate through small spaces with ease.

As an NFL player, Benson's career has been littered with bad luck and bad timing as much as anything. He seems to pull up with injury at the most inopportune times. While the 2005 season was clearly a time for Benson to try and acclimate himself to the NFL, the 2006 season was a different animal all together. Bears coach Lovie Smith declared Benson first on the team's depth chart last offseason, only to have a sprained knee open the door for Thomas Jones to once again take the job. However, as the season wore on, Cedric Benson was given more and more opportunity and finished the season with a respectable six touchdowns and 700 total yards. More significantly, Benson was leaned on much more heavily in the latter part of the season, garnering more carries then Thomas Jones over the last five weeks of the regular season.

Going in to 2007, expectations are deservedly high for Benson. Thomas Jones is gone, and the team is giving all indications that the load is Benson's to carry. The other running backs on the roster are nice complements to Benson, but are little threat to steal significant time from him. Benson's abilities fit the "grind it out, wear down the defense" style of ground game that has led to many wins for Chicago in the last two seasons. While Benson's receiving skills and pass blocking are likely to keep him from repeating Jones's receiving numbers, his expected workload on the ground should help bridge the statistical gap.

Positives

• Unquestioned workhorse for a run heavy offense with a history of production.
• History shows a tough, hard-nosed player capable of 20+ carries per game.
• Performed fairly well in the latter part of 2006.
• Excellent ability to generate yards after contact.
• Chicago offense has produced excellent numbers in the running game in recent seasons.

Negatives

• Recent production aside, largely unproven at the NFL level.
• History of missing games with injury in the last two seasons, including an injury in the Super Bowl
• May not be a huge factor in the passing game.
• Team's passing offense may be inconsistent, allowing teams to focus their defense on the running game.

Final Thoughts

The Bears offense has produced an average of 495 carries, 2,000 yards, and 12.5 touchdowns on the ground in the last two seasons. If Benson is able to match a lowly 60% of those numbers on his own, he would garner 300 carries, 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns. For Benson not to produce like a solid, and perhaps spectacular fantasy option this season he will either have to suffer another injury or play down to a level not seen from him on the field in the last 6 years.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

el-gato-grande:
Labeling Benson as injury prone may be premature, but the fact remains that he hasn't proven that he can make it through an entire season as a backup. Now he is the starter. That would translate to at least 100 more carries this season and probably more than that. I don't know how any fantasy owner analyzing Benson's statistical potential in 2007 could pencil him in for 16 games. And that alone limits his potential to break into the top tier and be a solid RB1.

shadyridr:
[Benson] has no competition, he has a great offensive line, he plays for a team that loves to run the ball so he will get a ton of carries, he is the goalline back, he plays for a team that has a great defense. What is not to like about him except his health? Like I said if he is healthy he is a lock to finish in the top 12. Hes one of the safest picks out there and most people can probably draft him as their RB2.

kurtrudder:
I'm really not sold on Benson, he seems to have maturity issues which for now, seem to have been appeased with the trade of Thomas Jones so Benson becomes the starter by default. True, he is a 4th overall pick for a reason and I'm not saying he will be a bust but I wouldn't be surprised to see the other Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe eat into his carries somewhat and a possible committee develop.

Cedric Benson Projections