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Spotlight - RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Sometimes life isn't fair. In the case of the Cowboys backfield, Marion Barber is learning that life lesson as we speak. You see, by virtually any measure imaginable, Barber has been more productive than his teammate Julius Jones; yet Jones is the one who went for 1,000 yards last year and had 200+ carries. More unfairly, the new coaching staff appears resolute in keeping last year's respective workloads intact.

First, let's put to bed any discussion of whether Barber is the better back...because I can't see how anyone would objectively say otherwise.

• Yards per rush 2006: Jones (4.1) vs. Barber (4.8)
• Yards per rush career: Jones (4.0) vs. Barber (4.4)
• Rushing TDs: 16 in 37 games (Jones) vs. 19 in 29 games (Barber)
• Goal-line TDs: Jones (7) vs. Barber (13)
• Goal-line TD%: Jones (23%) vs. Barber (38%)
• Short-yardage conversion %: Jones (51%) vs. Barber (57%)
• Average on 1st down: Jones (3.75 YPR) vs. Barber (4.25 YPR)
• Average on 2nd down: Jones (4.40 YPR) vs. Barber (4.32 YPR)
• Average on 3rd down: Jones (3.95 YPR) vs. Barber (4.85 YPR)
• Average inside the red zone: Jones (2.66 YPR) vs. Barber (2.99 YPR)
• Receptions per target: Jones (70.9%) vs. Barber (71.9%)
• Receiving TDs: Jones (0) vs. Barber (2)
• Yards per reception: Jones (7.7) vs. Barber (7.6)
• % rushes stopped at or behind line of scrimmage: Jones (9.7%) vs. Barber (4.4%) -- 2nd best in NFL
• Big play rushes (>10 yards): Jones (9.4%) vs. Barber (15.5%)
• Fumbles 2006: 1 for Jones vs. 0 for Barber
• Fumbles, Career: 8 for Jones vs. 3 for Barber
• Games missed: 11 of 48 (23%) for Jones vs. 3 of 32 (9%) for Barber

Unfortunately, the numbers and what we see with our own eyes mean nothing if the Cowboys coaches feel otherwise. To that end, it appears Jones will need to really struggle or get hurt for Barber to get his chance at a full-time role.

Barber needs more touches this year to match last year's fantasy value
If the Cowboys split touches the same way Parcells did a year ago, Barber is probably going to fall short of last year's 16 touchdowns. There's not much historical precedent to suggest Barber would repeat that prolific scoring rate; so he's going to need a heavier workload in order to match or exceed last year's fantasy value (Barber was the 14th best fantasy back last season).

The good news is that Jones has an injury history AND usually talent rises to the top over time
The truth is, Julius Jones hasn't been durable and isn't built to log 300 carries. In addition, if Barber can match last year's production, there's absolutely no way anyone can convince me OC Jason Garrett and HC Wade Phillips will continue to give Jones 2x the touches.

Positives

• Barber handily outperformed Julius Jones last year, and the new coaching staff has no loyalties or preconceptions that should keep Barber from earning more playing time
• The Cowboys offense was among the league's best last year, yet the team went out and improved the offensive line this offseason
• Barber is a powerful runner, with good leg drive and a low center of gravity

Negatives

• The coaches seem resolved to start the season with the same running back by committee employed by Bill Parcells; if that holds true, Barber is looking at 1/2 the touches that Jones will get
• Julius Jones is no slouch, having run for more than 1,000 yards last year and showing decent explosiveness as a scorer in his own right over the years
• Jason Witten and Terrell Owens are excellent red zone options, and with so much of Barber's value tied up in his TD production, there is a risk of major disappointment

Final Thoughts

Marion Barber surprised everyone last year with a 14th place fantasy finish, thanks in large part to 16 touchdowns on just 158 touches. While his performance last year seems to argue for a much heavier workload, the coaches appear ready to give Julius Jones a majority of the carries between the 20s, while letting Barber make his money on 3rd downs and short yardage. At worst, Barber is a solid RB2/RB3 option particularly in TD-heavy scoring leagues. At best, the coaches wake up and see what we already know, and Barber emerges as a 300+ touch back who should easily push for top-10 numbers under that circumstance. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
The guy nearly ran the ball for 5 yards per carry last year, I say give him the ball more and see what kind of load this guy can take. I like the way he blocks in passing situations and obviously runs hard near the goalline and 3rd/4th and short. He's only had 135 and 138 carries the past 2 seasons. I'd like to see him get 200 plus carries.....if he does, he'll run for just under 1000 yards.

shadyridr:
Plain and simple I think Barber is a more talented RB than Jones and now with Parcells gone I think Barber will eventually get more of the carries. That being said Jones will still get some carries and is a good change of pace and breakaway RB. I can see a 60/40 split favoring Barber but Barber is much more valuable as he gets the goalline love and rightfully deserves it.

rzrback77:
The projections of the two Dallas RBs for 07 confuse me. This message board all summer has been filled with threads featuring quotes about Barber being the better RB, Barber has proved to be the better option, Barber scores TDs, etc. Barber was the better goal line back in 06 for the Cowboys and I have to admit that I'm not a big Cowboy fan and didn't watch a lot of their games, but I keep seeing the number of touches and I'm confused.

Julius Jones 06 - 267 rushes for 1,084 yds (4.1 ypc) 15 targets 9 catches 142 yds (15.8 ypc) 4 total TDs
Marion Barber 06 - 135 rushes for 654 yds (4.8 ypc) 32 targets 23 catches 196 yds (8.5 ypc) 16 total TDs

Julius Jones 05 - 257 rushes for 993 yds (3.9 ypc) 46 targets 35 catches 218 yds (6.3 ypc) 5 total TDs
Marion Barber 05 - 138 rushes for 538 yds (3.9 ypc) 25 targets 18 catches 115 yds (6.4 ypc) 5 total TDs

I see Jones with almost twice the carries of Barber for each of the two seasons that Barber has been in the league. I see two effective receivers. I see two fairly effective RBs. The only aspect that Barber stands out in the statistics is in 06, with a lot of TDs. Others may point to the ypc in 06, but it is not unusual for the lower carry guy to have a higher ypc and even that was not the case in 05.

Maybe Barber is the more talented RB, but why did Jones have double the carries in each of Barber's two seasons? Now to the value of the two, Barber has an ADP of RB25 and 40 overall, while Jones is RB33 and 73 overall. That makes which of the two to draft an easy choice for me.

Marion Barber III Projections