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Spotlight - RB Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks

Posted on 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

When I built my projections this year, I thought I was being fairly generous with Shaun Alexander. I projected him for 315 carries, 1,285 yards rushing and 11 rushing TDs, along with 20 receptions for 130 yards and another score. Those are pretty good numbers for a 30 year old back coming off a major injury. Yet, as you can see below my projections are actually on the low side. The consensus on our message boards, and frankly that of my fellow staff members, has Alexander pushing for top-5 numbers yet again.

While I think Alexander COULD deliver RB1 numbers this year, I certainly wouldn't take him at his current ADP (6th Overall), because that leaves little room for error and completely ignores a lot of NFL history.

Reasons for Optimism:

He was the Alexander of old over the final six games of 2006 -- Alexander's bum foot led to a disastrous 28th place fantasy ranking last year, as he failed to rush for 1,000-yards for the first time since becoming a starter. But his full season numbers obfuscate his solid late season return to form.

Weeks 12-17

• 170 carries
• 672 yards rushing
• 3.95 yards per rush
• 5 rushing TDs
• 6 receptions
• 24 receiving yards

Over a full 16-game season, this would project to:

• 453 carries
• 1,792 yards
• 13 rushing TDs
• 16 receptions
• 64 yards receiving

Those numbers aren't realistic (453 carries is impossible) but they are indicative of solid production. Did Alexander produce NFL MVP numbers over the final six weeks? Absolutely not (he averaged less than 4 yards per rush and scored at a far less frequent rate), but they do point toward a solid fantasy season and most importantly, health.

The Seahawks supporting cast should benefit Alexander this season -- Matt Hasselbeck is a Pro Bowl QB and when he's on the field, defenses can't stack 8 men in the box against Alexander often. After suffering his own injuries last year (and having shoulder surgery), Hasselbeck is healthy and has looked great in OTAs and the early part of training camp. If Hasselbeck and his deep receiving corps can produce up to expectations, Alexander will have much more room to run this year.

The Seahawks defense should benefit the ground game -- The Seahawks took aggressive measures to improve the 22nd ranked defense, including DE Patrick Kerney and safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell. Assuming the 'hawks D improves, it's equally logical to presume the team will be able to run the ball more consistently, grinding out the clock when appropriate.

The Seahawks have an easy schedule against the rush -- Clayton Gray's ultimate strength of schedule projects Seattle to have one of the easiest schedules in the league against the run. If our SOS analysis holds up, that means a big leg up for Alexander as he beats up on subpar run defenses.

Reasons for Pessimism:

The Seahawks schedule looks tough in the key fantasy playoff weeks -- Clayton's analysis may point to an easy overall schedule for Alexander, but his analysis also points to a very difficult final month of the season; which is exactly when you need your first round stud to deliver big production.

Alexander racked up the carries over the last six weeks, but his underlying metrics were still not up to snuff -- As we showed earlier, Alexander returned to his workhorse ways in the final six games last year. But there was trouble underlying the heavy workload:

• Yards per rush (Weeks 12-17) = 3.95 versus YPR (Career) = 4.55
• Rushing TD% (Weeks 12-17) = 2.9% versus RushTD% (Career) = 5.2%

The Offensive Line remains a question -- Last year I clearly underestimated the loss of guard Steve Hutchinson; this year I won't make that same mistake. While I think the 'hawks line should be much improved this year, we simply can't know with certainty whether the struggles we saw last year will moderate. One could argue the line changes are just as likely to lead for further degradation as they are to lead to major improvement.

Positives

• Alexander is among the league's elite players, with an unmatched streak of five straight seasons of 16+ TDs
• Over the final six games of last season, Alexander was a workhorse, putting up top-10 numbers yet again
• The Seahawks schedule, and improved defense, and the healthy return of Matt Hasselbeck should allow Alexander to have more opportunities this year

Negatives

• At 30 years old, with a boatload of career carries, there isn't much historical precedent to suggest Alexander will return to elite form
• The offensive line continues to evolve, and we're not sure if the changes are for the better
• The schedule looks difficult in the key fantasy playoff weeks

Final Thoughts

Shaun Alexander is an all-time great, and a few more decent seasons will put him within Hall of Fame consideration. While I can understand the optimism behind Alexander returning to the 1,200 yard and 10+ TD marks this year, I am surprised that so many people are willing to simply project a return to his Pro Bowl, MVP type numbers. At RB6, I wouldn't be comfortable drafting Alexander (I have him ranked 12th); which means I won't get a chance to roster him because he surely will go in the first round of every draft. I'm not going to disparage anyone for choosing Alexander in the middle of the 1st round, but I am going to suggest you think long and hard about the decision.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

mad sweeney:
The foot is fine. He played full speed in voluntary OTAs and the team did NOTHING to backup the position which makes it clear to me that all involved are worried about Alexander's foot as much as they are what I had for breakfast. Hass' recovery is way ahead of schedule and he also participated in OTAs and is spending extra time with Branch. The Oline will be improved with the last few year's worth of draft picks starting in the 3 middle slots. Chris Spencer learned all he could from Pro Bowler Tobeck and is ready to lead the line. The guard spots look solid. Jones is Jones, Strong is Strong, and Locklear will continue to improve at RT. One thing to look for in preseason is Leonard Weaver FB. He's a quick, big and punishing runner with a vicious stiff arm and good hands. 3rd downs could get interesting. At this point I would take him before I took LJ, if he fell to me at 6 or 7 I'd be ecstatic.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
Age 30 used to be thought of as the point where RBs started to break down and go to die. IMO, there have been enough 30 year old backs that have been successful that I would push the age concern to 31.

There have only been 5 RB that were 32 or older that had 200 fantasy points in a season:

John Riggins 1983, 34, 281.60
Walter Payton 1986, 32, 237.50
Ottis Anderson 1989, 32, 213.10
John Riggins 1984, 35, 212.20
Mike Anderson 2005, 32, 200.60

That feat has been accomplished 12 times by players 31 or older (so 7 backs plus the 5 listed above) and 28 times by RB 30 or older.

JimboJim:
Positives
- 1969 total carrer carries; LT has 2050, James has 2500, Lewis has 1800... He may be 30, but he's not a high-mileage back some like to think.
- Lowest workload since his rookie year last season might make him fresher this year.
- No serious competition for touches.
- Seahawks are still a good team in playoff contention every year, that should again ride Alexander if he is healthy.
- Prior to last season, never missed a game in pro-career.
- Has averaged a TD per 22.5 rushes.

Negatives
- Coming off a significant foot injury that limited him to 10 games and a 3.6 YPC last season.
- Offensive line is not where it was a couple of years ago.
- Loss of Darrell Jackson could hinder overall offensive performance.

Bottom Line
I agree with most that the time has passed for one to expect an 1800 yard rushing, 20 TD performance for Alexander. However, I believe that Alexander is actually a value coming off of a poor season last year and should rebound to post numbers similiar to his career averages. I also feel Alexander may see a few more receptions with both Jackson and Stevens gone. After LT and Jackson are off the board, I think Alexander falls right into that group with Gore, and LJ and Willie Parker (I'm not a Westbrook fan).

Shaun Alexander Projections