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Ultimate Strength of Schedule (Running Backs)

  Posted 8/27 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy points driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.

  • Removed bias of schedule
    Consider the following defenses: Defense A faced the top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.

  • Positional breakdown
    If you are looking for a RB, it’s much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data).

  • Comparison of 2007 schedule to 2006 schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

Explanation of USOS Tables

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The “TM” Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The “07sos” Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents for this season.

The “%ch” Column

This is the percentage of change between the 2007 SOS and the 2006 SOS. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The “EZ” Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The “Tuf” Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The “1st3” Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The “1st5” Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The “Bye” Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The “Lst5” Column

This is similar to the “1st5” column except that it is the SOS for the final five weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to end the season. This is a critical stretch of games as your fantasy playoffs take place here. Players with high values here are likely to perform very well during your fantasy playoffs.

Speaking of fantasy playoffs, here are three more narrowed time frames to choose from.

  • The “14-16” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 14 through 16.

  • The “15-16” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 15 and 16.

  • The “15-17” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 15 through 17.

The "W1” through “W17” Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team’s opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The red values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up statistically. The blue values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool down statistically. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Red is a hot team with a good schedule

  • Blue is a cold team with a bad schedule

Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Running Backs

TM
07sos
%ch
EZ
Tuf
1st3
1st5
Bye
Lst5
14-16
15-16
15-17
Ari
18.8
1.4%
5
3
18.1
18.1
18.3
18.7
16.4
15.5
18.0
Atl
18.3
8.2%
5
5
14.3
17.2
19.0
18.7
17.6
19.2
18.8
Bal
19.0
15.4%
6
4
19.7
20.8
20.6
16.9
18.7
15.9
15.0
Buf
16.8
-5.2%
1
7
15.6
16.6
16.9
18.2
17.5
19.4
19.1
Car
18.7
3.0%
6
3
20.2
18.6
19.3
18.1
16.5
17.5
17.6
Chi
17.6
6.9%
1
3
16.9
17.9
18.7
16.6
17.1
15.7
15.3
Cin
18.2
4.3%
6
6
17.5
16.8
16.8
18.9
22.5
22.4
19.5
Cle
18.1
3.0%
5
6
18.2
16.5
15.9
21.1
20.6
21.3
22.0
Dal
18.0
0.4%
2
3
15.4
18.4
18.2
18.6
18.1
17.1
18.0
Den
18.5
1.1%
6
4
19.8
20.0
18.3
17.9
18.3
18.6
16.7
Det
17.4
-0.1%
2
4
17.7
17.6
17.8
16.4
16.9
16.8
17.4
GB
17.6
2.2%
3
4
17.3
16.0
16.1
19.4
19.9
19.0
19.4
Hou
18.4
9.1%
6
4
19.1
17.5
17.4
19.4
20.2
21.4
19.1
Ind
17.6
1.1%
4
6
19.2
18.8
16.2
18.5
18.7
21.5
21.7
Jac
19.3
11.8%
8
2
19.0
18.6
19.5
19.3
16.9
17.6
18.8
KC
18.8
7.2%
5
3
16.4
15.9
18.2
19.2
20.2
21.0
20.4
Mia
18.6
6.8%
5
4
18.7
19.8
20.0
17.9
17.0
13.9
15.8
Min
18.4
10.9%
2
2
18.1
18.2
17.3
19.4
19.4
17.5
17.8
NE
18.3
16.4%
4
4
19.4
19.9
19.3
15.3
15.4
16.5
16.7
NO
18.8
12.4%
5
2
21.3
19.9
18.5
17.7
18.6
19.6
18.1
NYG
18.0
0.2%
2
4
18.5
18.7
18.1
18.3
20.5
21.5
19.3
NYJ
17.7
11.9%
4
6
13.8
16.4
20.2
17.9
19.4
18.4
18.1
Oak
18.0
-1.1%
4
4
20.1
18.5
17.6
18.4
19.1
19.4
18.3
Phi
17.4
-6.4%
1
4
19.6
19.0
16.9
18.0
16.3
15.7
18.2
Pit
18.5
11.6%
5
5
22.6
21.3
18.5
16.9
17.4
18.7
16.7
SD
18.3
15.6%
4
5
16.2
16.9
19.4
20.0
20.2
19.3
20.2
SF
17.8
-1.2%
3
4
18.9
17.5
16.2
17.4
16.7
18.7
19.6
Sea
18.7
3.2%
5
4
19.3
18.9
19.8
16.8
16.4
14.3
15.0
StL
18.2
6.4%
3
3
18.9
18.9
17.4
17.7
17.1
16.0
17.5
TB
18.8
4.8%
5
4
18.4
19.0
19.5
18.2
20.4
20.0
18.5
Ten
18.6
-1.2%
5
4
17.8
17.5
17.9
19.6
17.6
18.4
20.3
Was
17.6
-5.8%
1
4
16.5
17.5
18.7
17.1
15.1
15.0
15.7

Week-By-Week Look

TM
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
Ari
23.3
18.0
12.9
13.3
22.8
15.6
19.9
-
17.8
Atl
12.8
14.5
15.6
21.2
21.9
17.3
14.5
-
23.3
Bal
19.5
19.2
20.6
21.5
23.3
22.8
23.1
-
13.3
Buf
18.5
13.3
14.9
19.2
17.0
-
12.9
19.2
19.5
Car
22.8
21.2
16.6
17.8
14.5
20.6
-
24.3
21.9
Chi
16.0
17.5
17.0
20.2
18.6
12.8
18.6
20.2
-
Cin
12.9
21.5
18.0
14.9
-
17.5
19.2
13.3
23.1
Cle
13.3
19.5
21.9
12.9
14.9
13.7
-
22.8
18.0
Dal
17.3
13.7
15.1
22.8
23.1
14.9
12.8
-
18.6
Den
23.1
21.9
14.5
24.3
16.0
-
13.3
18.6
20.2
Det
21.9
12.8
18.6
15.1
19.9
-
17.8
15.1
18.5
GB
18.6
17.3
16.0
12.8
15.1
19.9
-
18.5
17.5
Hou
17.5
15.6
24.3
16.6
13.7
14.5
21.9
16.0
21.9
Ind
14.5
21.9
21.2
18.5
17.8
-
14.5
15.6
14.9
Jac
21.9
16.6
18.5
-
17.5
21.2
24.3
17.8
14.5
KC
21.2
15.1
12.8
16.0
14.5
19.5
21.9
-
18.6
Mia
19.9
17.0
19.2
21.9
21.2
21.5
14.9
17.3
-
Min
16.6
20.2
17.5
18.6
-
15.1
17.0
18.6
16.0
NE
19.2
16.0
23.1
19.5
21.5
17.0
13.7
19.9
24.3
NO
24.3
17.8
21.9
-
15.6
18.0
16.6
23.3
14.5
NYG
17.0
18.6
19.9
18.6
19.2
16.6
23.3
13.7
-
NYJ
14.9
12.9
13.7
23.1
17.3
18.6
19.5
23.1
19.9
Oak
20.2
18.5
21.5
13.7
-
16.0
17.5
21.9
21.2
Phi
18.6
19.9
20.2
17.3
-
19.2
15.1
12.8
17.0
Pit
21.5
23.1
23.3
20.6
18.0
-
18.5
19.5
12.9
SD
15.1
14.9
18.6
17.5
18.5
21.9
-
21.2
12.8
SF
20.6
22.8
13.3
18.0
12.9
-
17.3
14.5
16.6
Sea
17.8
20.6
19.5
23.3
13.3
14.5
22.8
-
21.5
StL
15.6
23.3
17.8
17.0
20.6
12.9
18.0
21.5
-
TB
18.0
14.5
22.8
15.6
24.3
21.9
20.2
14.5
20.6
Ten
14.5
24.3
14.5
-
16.6
17.8
21.2
21.9
15.6
Was
13.7
18.6
17.3
-
20.2
18.6
20.6
14.9
19.2

TM
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Ari
20.2
19.5
23.3
21.5
18.0
14.5
16.6
22.8
Atl
15.6
17.8
24.3
22.8
14.5
17.8
20.6
18.0
Bal
19.5
21.5
16.0
14.9
24.3
13.7
18.0
13.3
Buf
13.7
14.9
14.5
19.9
13.7
21.5
17.3
18.6
Car
16.6
18.6
14.5
23.3
14.5
18.0
17.0
17.8
Chi
21.9
18.0
18.5
17.3
19.9
12.8
18.6
14.5
Cin
12.9
20.6
21.9
13.3
22.8
23.3
21.5
13.7
Cle
13.3
12.9
21.2
20.6
19.2
23.1
19.5
23.3
Dal
17.3
19.9
19.2
18.6
20.2
18.6
15.6
19.9
Den
17.5
21.9
15.1
21.9
17.5
21.2
16.0
12.8
Det
20.6
17.3
18.6
12.8
17.0
16.0
17.5
18.6
GB
12.8
15.6
20.2
17.0
21.9
22.8
15.1
20.2
Hou
-
14.5
21.5
21.9
17.8
18.5
24.3
14.5
Ind
16.0
17.5
16.6
14.5
12.9
21.9
21.2
21.9
Jac
21.9
16.0
23.1
24.3
15.6
13.3
21.9
21.2
KC
18.5
24.3
21.9
16.0
18.5
21.9
20.2
19.2
Mia
23.1
18.6
13.3
19.2
23.1
12.9
14.9
19.5
Min
18.6
21.9
17.3
20.2
23.3
15.1
19.9
18.5
NE
-
23.1
18.6
12.9
13.3
19.2
13.7
17.3
NO
22.8
21.2
15.6
17.8
16.6
20.6
18.6
15.1
NYG
17.0
20.2
12.8
15.1
18.6
19.9
23.1
14.9
NYJ
-
13.3
17.0
13.7
21.5
14.9
21.9
17.5
Oak
15.1