Breaking Down Draft Slots #8 & #9

  Posted 8/4 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting eighth and ninth overall

Now the draft begins to get very interesting and strategy will come into play. In all honesty it is pretty easy to put together a good roster from the first half of a draft but it becomes more challenging as the draft goes on. With these two picks, in all likelihood seven running backs are off the board and there aren't as many good RB options to look at here.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

An owner drafting in these positions must be flexible and must be willing to alter his draft strategy based on what occurs. If an owner feels that QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison together on the team gives him/her the best chance to win then rolling the dice may be in order. A conservative owner will have a challenging time emerging as the victor from these slots in the draft unless competing owners make mistakes, allowing talent to drop. The first two picks could be

• QB / RB
  
• QB / WR
  
• WR / WR
  
• RB / RB
  
• RB / WR
  
• etc.

Specific Player Examples

• RB Brian Westbrook / RB Reggie Bush
  
• RB Brian Westbrook / WR Chad Johnson
  
• QB Peyton Manning / RB Reggie Bush
  
• QB Peyton Manning / WR Chad Johnson
  
• WR Steve Smith / WR Chad Johnson

Positives of the draft slot

1. Early 2nd round pick is nice
   
2. If talent falls to you here due to questionable picks, the 2nd round pick will turn this owner into an instant legitimate contender
   
3. Not many picks in between odd and even rounds

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Owners drafting ahead of this slot usually wind up with better running back talent
   
2. Cannot afford to make a mistake drafting as this slot is tougher than the first seven
   
3. Long wait between 2nd and 3rd round picks
   
4. Looking at running back with first and second pick could limit production at other positions
   

For this study, instead of breaking down the 8th and 9th slots separately we will move forward in this fashion. The first part of the article involving flexible drafting but using a conventional strategy and will be accomplished using the 8th draft slot. The 2nd part of the article will go with a more unconventional strategy in the first two rounds to take a look at how it turns out again using the 8th slot.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #8 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #8 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB Willie Parker

When you have a running back like Parker still available here with the 8th pick, it is an easy selection. Grab him and move on.

Rounds 2/3: WR Chad Johnson / RB Willis McGahee

There are two paths the 2nd round pick can go. There is RB Reggie Bush of the Saints and WR Chad Johnson of the Bengals. Both are very nice options to start a team with and it is a difficult call to make. Since this is a mock draft, it is possible to play out both sides of the coin here. If Reggie Bush is the selection, the 3rd round pick becomes WR Lee Evans, WR Anquan Bolden or RB Willis McGahee. If the 2nd round pick is Chad Johnson, the easy 3rd round selection is McGahee. Personally I prefer the Parker/Johnson/McGahee combination to the Parker/Bush/Evans combination so Johnson is the 2nd round pick and McGahee is the 3rd. If you are in a league with RB hungry owners, Bush would probably be the pick in this slot if he's available.

Rounds 4/5: WR Hines Ward / RB Cadillac Williams

These two rounds are often value picks during my drafts. I look for the players with the best upside in these slots and scoop them up. Hines Ward is a #1 receiver on a team that looks poised to pass more this season. Ward is capable of finishing inside of the top-five at the receiver position. Cadillac Williams has a ton of potential and although he's disappointed over the first two seasons of his career, his potential alone makes him a steal in the fifth round and his production will likely exceed this draft position.

Rounds 6/7: QB Vince Young / WR Chris Chambers

The 6th round pick is an interesting one. There are decent tight ends and receivers available as well as serviceable backup running backs. However when you have a player with the talents of Vince Young sitting there in the sixth round of your draft, it becomes a very easy selection to make. Young is a dual-threat who is likely to put up outstanding rushing totals and he could finish as a top-five quarterback. Nice value in round six. The 7th round pick is very easy to make here. I am in need of a starting receiver and Chambers is a steal in the 7th round. There are no other real options with this pick.

Rounds 8/9: WR Darrell Jackson / TE Kellen Winslow Jr.

With my starting quarterback already onboard and the running back position sucked dry at this point in the draft, the 8th round becomes a choice between a solid backup receiver and a starting tight end. In the end this is another simple choice to make as there are a number of tight ends all grouped together with similar likely production this season, leaving veteran WR Darrell Jackson as the easy pick here. Waiting on tight end does pay off as Kellen Winslow Jr. has as much upside as anybody and is a bargain in the ninth round.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Vince Young

RB Willie Parker
RB Willis McGahee
RB Cadillac Williams

WR Chad Johnson
WR Hines Ward
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson

TE Kellen Winslow Jr.

Rounds 10-14: QB Chad Pennington / RB Michael Pittman / Vikings DEF / WR Drew Bennett / RB DeDe Dorsey

As usual, I try and target my backup quarterback in round ten before the well dries up. There are a number of teams with serious question marks at quarterback this season and it's nice to lock up two definite starters for a fantasy roster. Pittman is a player I like to target at this point in the draft if I have Cadillac Williams on the roster. Pittman will get some work each week and becomes a serviceable starter if something happens to Williams. It is nice to lock up fantasy points at one of the running back spots. The Vikings defense has outstanding potential this year and stood out as the best pick for round 12. WR Drew Bennett has been a top-ten fantasy receiver and is joining a team that loves to pass the ball. He'll be good value in the 13th round. Finally DeDe Dorsey is an interesting prospect who appears to have a lock on the backup position for the Colts. He's likely to earn a number of touches each week at a minimum and the upside is there for him to become much more.

Rounds 15-18: K Jason Elam / RB Lorenzo Booker / Seahawks DEF / TE Ben Troupe

As always, I target my starting kicker in the final portion of the draft. You don't have to wait until the final round to select a kicker though. Instead target your starter when there are no other clear options at the other positions and in this case, that moment falls with the 15th round pick. My receiver stable is deep with proven veteran talent so I will stick with my five man rotation at instead target a 6th running back here. Booker is similar to Dorsey mentioned earlier in that he appears guaranteed to slot in as the backup and at least will receive 6 to 10 touches per game. He could emerge as a decent fantasy starter however if something happens to Dolphins starting RB Ronnie Brown. Finally adding the Seahawks defense here and TE Ben Troupe are easy picks. Choosing Troupe here instead of one of the promising rookie tight ends is due to the past injury woes of Winslow Jr. Having a proven veteran presence at the position becomes a necessity.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #8 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Vince Young
QB Chad Pennington

RB Willie Parker
RB Willis McGahee
RB Cadillac Williams
RB Michael Pittman
RB DeDe Dorsey
RB Lorenzo Booker

WR Chad Johnson
WR Hines Ward
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson
WR Drew Bennett

TE Kellen Winslow Jr.
TE Ben Troupe

K Jason Elam

DEF Vikings D
DEF Seahawks D

Final thoughts on this roster

If an owner drafts in the 8th slot and is fortunate enough to have players like Parker, McGahee, Williams, Ward, Chambers and Vince Young available in value spots, this becomes an outstanding team. The key is to not worry so much about targeting certain players at certain times in the draft, instead targeting the best value at each round. If this is accomplished, a team drafting from this position will emerge with a very solid team, albeit without the star running back that the teams at the top of the first round are blessed with. A starting lineup of QB Vince Young, RB Willie Parker, RB Willis McGahee, WR Chad Johnson, WR Hines Ward, WR Chris Chambers, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., K Jason Elam and DEF Vikings will definitely be in the running for the championship.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #8 Slot (Unconventional Strategy)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #8 (Unconventional Strategy)

Round 1: QB Peyton Manning

It is a gutsy move taking a quarterback in round one and something that I will rarely do. However having Manning on a fantasy roster is always going to keep an owner competitive because of his weekly consistency and ability to put up 300 passing yards and 3+ touchdowns at any time during the season. Targeting Manning in round one means an owner can wait longer on acquiring a backup at the position thanks to Manning's durability and production.

Rounds 2/3: WR Chad Johnson / WR Roy Williams

As I stated at the start of this study, this will be a look at an unconventional draft strategy. Not many fantasy 'experts' out there will ever walk you through starting a draft QB/WR/WR but this being a 'draft slots study', it is a perfect time to try it on for size. If things break well, this could possibly give this owner stuck in a miserable 8th pick slot an advantage over the earlier teams. Chad Johnson and Roy Williams are a deadly one-two punch and will team with Peyton Manning to provide the foundation for this franchise. With no running backs on board, it is pretty obvious that the running back position will have to be targeted often throughout the remainder of this draft.

Rounds 4/5: RB Thomas Jones / RB Ahman Green

These two players might be considered 'ancient' in NFL terms but both players still have good football in them and appear to be in excellent new situations. Thomas Jones should be off the board before the 4th round and Green will be considered a steal in the fifth round. These are not sexy running back starters in fantasy football but they'll be very good and all of a sudden this risky team looks capable of doing some damage this season.

Rounds 6/7: RB Julius Jones / WR Chris Chambers

I would feel very fortunate to add Jones as my RB3 in a real draft. Jones may have struggled at times last season but he is a talented player in a good offense and waiting on running backs appears to have paid off. WR Chris Chambers is a great WR3 this season and my starting receiver trio is as strong as you'll ever see in a redraft league.

Rounds 8/9: WR Darrell Jackson / RB Brandon Jackson

Usually I will target my starting tight end at this point in the draft. However Darrell Jackson has too much upside to leave him on the table in round eight and I need to add another decent running back option more than a tight end at this point. Jackson could emerge as the starting back in Green Bay, rushing behind a young, talented offensive line.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Peyton Manning

RB Thomas Jones
RB Ahman Green
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson

WR Chad Johnson
WR Roy Williams
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson

Rounds 10-14: TE Ben Watson / QB Jake Delhomme / WR Drew Bennett / RB Ron Dayne / RB DeDe Dorsey

It is very nice to see Watson still around with the 10th round pick and he has as much upside as any of the tight ends not named 'Gates'. I was going to ignore quarterback until later in the draft but it really dries up after QB22 so Delhomme is the best pick here. Adding another veteran receiver adds stability to that position and allows me to ignore the receiver position from this point on. Landing Ron Dayne with a 13th round pick is a key to this unconventional strategy and he teams with Ahman Green to stabilize the RB2 slot. If Green gets injured, Dayne should emerge as a viable fantasy option. Finally I add a running back here that should see touches each week in spelling starting RB Joseph Addai and could surprise if an injury thrusts him into the starting lineup. Both he and Dayne are certainly worth a shot here.

Rounds 15-18: Seahawks DEF / Cowboys DEF / RB Lorenzo Booker / K David Akers

Rounding out this draft is back-to-back Team Defense selections and I really like the potential of both the Hawks and Cowboys in 2007. Next I take another running back here with some upside for the upcoming season. Booker will get some touches in spelling starting RB Ronnie Brown and he has the upside to do very well with more work if called upon. Finally I add a kicker in the 18th round in David Akers that has top-five ability.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #8 - Part Two: Unconventional Strategy)

QB Peyton Manning
QB Jake Delhomme

RB Thomas Jones
RB Ahman Green
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson
RB Ron Dayne
RB DeDe Dorsey
RB Lorenzo Booker

WR Chad Johnson
WR Roy Williams
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson
WR Drew Bennett

TE Ben Watson

K David Akers

DEF Seahawks
DEF Cowboys

Final thoughts on this roster

This has turned out to actually be a very interesting squad. It isn't as dominant on paper as some of the other rosters in this study so far but the potential is certainly there. Luck was on our side during this draft as two good veteran running backs were there for the plucking and the 3rd scooped up, Julius Jones also has the potential to rush for a lot of yards. There is a lack of depth at tight end that could prove costly if something was to happen to Ben Watson. However he has good promise this season and could emerge as a top-five talent. With all five receivers being proven veteran talents capable of putting up monster fantasy numbers, it allows this roster to stockpile 7 running backs in the hopes that some diamonds in the rough emerge. All in all, this is a good roster with an advantage over most if not all other teams at quarterback and receiver. If the running backs perform well, this team should find itself looking at a playoff run.

Tips on drafting from fifth through seventh overall

• Don't be afraid to buck the norm and select positions other than RB in the first few rounds.
  
• Be willing to stray from your predraft strategy
  
• Backup your starting running backs if clear-cut backup in place
  
  • i.e. Michael Turner for LaDainian Tomlinson
    
• Adjust your draft going forward if you alter your strategy
  
  • i.e. Using an early draft pick on QB or TE

Last thoughts on the fifth through seventh slots

It is much easier to draft in the earlier slots of a draft than the later ones but these two studies prove one again that it is possible to build a strong team from anywhere in the draft with wise picks. There is nothing wrong with going with

• QB Peyton Manning
  RB Ahman Green
  
• RB Thomas Jones
  
• WR Chad Johnson
  
• WR Roy Williams
  
• WR Chris Chambers
  
• TE Ben Watson
  
• K David Akers
  
• DEF Seattle/Dallas

as your starting lineup. Don't be hesitant to draft outside of your box and you'll be in for a successful draft.