Breaking Down Draft Slots #5, 6 and 7

  Posted 8/6 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting fifth, sixth, or seventh overall

There are distinct tiers when it comes to draft slots this season. The best slot may be the 1st overall pick thanks to LaDainian Tomlinson who can dominate fantasy football leagues and three of the top twenty-five players. Next are the second through fourth picks with three running backs (Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Frank Gore) lumped together. Next you have the fifth through ninth picks with a probable drop-off in fantasy production at the running back position and finally you have the 10th to 12th slots in which an owner will have to be creative to keep up with the owners at the top end of the draft.

We are now in the fifth through ninth tier and of these slots, the worst of the bunch is the fifth spot. There are a number of running backs all lumped together here with little to choose from between the fifth and the ninth running backs available.

*** Disclaimer: for myself, I would rather draft fifth than fourth this season as I have the Seahawks Shaun Alexander ranked ahead of the Chiefs Larry Johnson. However I am using the FBG projections within the Draft Dominator and Alexander is ranked down the list. ***

The owner unfortunate enough to draft fifth misses out on the top running backs this season, is stuck too early in the draft to look at QB or WR and so has to simply pick the best running back on his cheat sheet and move on. If you have a different running back such as Shaun Alexander in the top four however the fifth slot can be looked at as a strength and not a liability so much of this depends on your own projections/rankings.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

This owner has to keep all of his options open throughout this draft to keep up with the owners drafting first through fourth. It will be important to try and dictate the direction of the draft to the owners slotted first through fourth by making smart decisions with the even-round picks. In order to make up ground on the top end of the draft, this owner needs to ignore all runs happening during the draft and take the best player available regardless of position. It will be important to build strength at all of the positions to feature a deep, consistent squad that can overcome the advantage other owners have in starting their team with Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore or Johnson.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: The majority of fantasy leagues today have running backs fly off the draft board in the first few rounds. Owners will start a draft RB/RB/RB and attempt to fill the other spots by finding bargains later on. That isn't a bad strategy as there are good value picks to be had in the mid-rounds and beyond. If everybody insists on taking running backs here, don't be afraid to target a Chad Johnson or Peyton Manning in round two. That could give you an advantage on your peers.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Peyton Manning
   RB Willie Parker
   RB Cadillac Williams
   WR Larry Fitzgerald
   WR Hines Ward
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In this case, a few receivers, possibly TE Antonio Gates and a couple of quarterbacks may have come off the board by the time the second round pick arrives. If that is the case, take the best available player regardless of position which is likely to be a running back. You don't want to force a RB/RB start to your team but if you can land the second running back without reaching, that is a great way to begin your draft.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Willie Parker
   RB Willis McGahee
   RB Cadillac Williams
   WR Larry Fitzgerald
   WR Hines Ward

Positives of the draft slot

1. Getting your choice of running backs in a similar tier with the fifth pick
2. With intelligent drafting can force the hand of the owners sitting in the first through fourth slots
3. Enough talent available to build a strong draft if draft is well managed

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Missing out on the perceived top-four running backs
2. Will be playing catch-up with the top slots throughout the draft
3. Many picks still fall off the board between odd and even round picks
   

For this study, instead of breaking down the fifth, sixth and seventh slots separately we will move forward in this fashion. The first part of the article involving flexible drafting will be accomplished using the fifth overall owner while the second part of the article showcasing the 'Stud RB' theory will use the seventh overall owner. Because there is little to distinguish between the three draft slots, it makes sense to combine the study.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #5 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #3 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB Willie Parker

This pick is much different than the other picks at the top of the draft. There is a strong consensus on the top-four picks this year in fantasy football but after that it appears to be a crapshoot. The nice thing for the owner drafting 5th is he gets to choose which running back he likes with this pick. This owner may believe Shaun Alexander will rebound with a big year or Joseph Addai will emerge as the next great thing. It is nice to get the running back you want here and especially so if you have somebody ranked inside the top-four that is different than the consensus this season. However it's too early to think of selecting a different position and in reality it would be nice to pick a few slots later, still picking up a talented player.

Rounds 2/3: RB Willis McGahee / WR Larry Fitzgerald

This combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks works out nicely. Having Willis McGahee available with this pick makes for an easy choice and he'll form a strong duo with first pick Willie Parker. Could also consider QB Carson Palmer or WR Marvin Harrison here as well but it taking McGahee works well and a good receiver should fall to the 3rd round pick. Indeed with the third round pick, WR Larry Fitzgerald is added to the roster. He has a huge upside and is the type of player that can elevate his play and become an elite receiver.

Rounds 4/5: WR Hines Ward / RB Cadillac Williams

You will notice some similar names in this study compared to the earlier draft slot studies. The reason is certain players have outstanding value no matter where in the round they will be selected. Hines Ward is one of those players and an easy choice in the fourth. RB Thomas Jones is also an option with this pick but with two good starting running backs already on the team, adding a player like Ward to start each week is an easy decision. The fifth round pick is also incredibly easy to make. The best receivers are off the board here, the tight ends available are all lumped together in a similar tier and there isn't one quarterback that appears to be exceptional value for a 5th round pick. RB Cadillac Williams has tremendous upside for a fifth round pick, has a complimentary bye week and could emerge as my starter if he becomes the player he was drafted to be.

Rounds 6/7: WR Reggie Brown / QB Donovan McNabb

I love getting a good QB/WR1 combination from a NFL team cheaply and this offers some explosive possibilities. What I like best is Reggie Brown slots in as my WR3 and if the Eagles offense struggles in certain weeks my WR1 and WR2 should be able to make up the slack for the lack of production from QB and WR3. If I had gone WR in round five, Reggie Brown would have been the pick so it is a fortunate event to have him available to scoop up here.

Rounds 8/9: WR Darrell Jackson / TE Chris Cooley

There are some question marks in regards to Darrell Jackson this season in regards to health and fitting in with a new team. However if he can match his play in previous years, landing him in the eight round is a major steal. No matter what he is a value pick in the 8th round of a draft. TE Chris Cooley will be a very good starting option for my team and he has the potential to leap into the top four at the position.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Donovan McNabb

RB Willie Parker
RB Willis McGahee
RB Cadillac Williams

WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Hines Ward
WR Reggie Brown
WR Darrell Jackson

TE Chris Cooley

Rounds 10-14: QB Jake Delhomme, DEF Chargers, RB Michael Pittman, RB Lorenzo Booker, WR Troy Williamson

As always I look to land my backup quarterback in round ten. By the tenth round the talent at running back and receiver has dried up and it is an ideal time to land a complimentary backup quarterback to your roster. Delhomme is experienced and can be a serviceable starter if called upon. The 11th round is a little early to go defense but the Chargers defense has the potential to be an elite unit this season and there is really nobody here that jumps out from the pack. Michael Pittman is the player I would have taken in round eleven but instead Pittman joins my squad in the 12th round. He teams with Cadillac Williams to give me guaranteed touches at RB3 which will help throughout the season. Finally I have scooped up two young players with a sizable upside in RB Lorenzo Booker and WR Troy Williamson. With four good receivers already on the team, I can afford to take a swing for the fences player in Williamson and he has had a really good offseason. The Dolphins starting running back is Ronnie Brown but he hasn't proven capable of 20+ carries at this point and Booker is the likely option to spell Brown throughout the season. He will averaged 6 to 10 touches per game at a minimum but could become the starter if Brown's durability comes into play.

Rounds 15-18: K Jason Elam, RB Adrian Peterson (CHI), DEF Cowboys, TE Zach Miller

Landing Jason Elam in the fifteenth round is nice. Some experts will tell you to wait until the final round to take a kicker but why not jump ahead a few rounds and land an elite kicker instead. There isn't much to choose from at this point between the running back, receiver, tight end and quarterback positions so taking a kicker with the production of Elam makes sense. RB Adrian Peterson may receive an opportunity this season if Cedric Benson struggles to become the 20+ carry per game starter and Peterson is capable of performing well if given the opportunity. With an elite defense already on the squad, I thought about just having one defense on the team. However the Cowboys defense also has elite potential this year and become an incredible one-two punch with the Chargers defense on this squad. Finally Zach Miller is a rookie tight end who is a gifted pass receiver. He looks like the starter for the Raiders right out of the gate and he's worth a shot with the final pick in the draft.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #5 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Donovan McNabb
QB Jake Delhomme

RB Willie Parker
RB Willis McGahee
RB Cadillac Williams
RB Michael Pittman
RB Lorenzo Booker
RB Adrian Peterson (CHI)

WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Hines Ward
WR Reggie Brown
WR Darrell Jackson
WR Troy Williamson

TE Chris Cooley
TE Zach Miller

K Jason Elam

DEF Chargers defense
DEF Cowboys defense

Final thoughts on this roster

Although starting from the difficult 5th spot in the draft, I believe this team has an excellent shot to compete for the championship title in 2007. Take a look at this starting lineup:

• QB Donovan McNabb
  
• RB Willie Parker
  
• RB Willis McGahee
  
• WR Larry Fitzgerald
  
• WR Hines Ward
  
• WR Reggie Brown
  
• TE Chris Cooley
• K Jason Elam
  
• DEF Chargers

The above starters will be able to compete against any of the other eleven teams in this league and there is a really good chance this team will be in the running for a title at season's end. One of my favorite combinations when possible is to team a starting quarterback with his best receiver. This is especially sweet when that receiver slots in as the WR3 on the squad. There is no real weakness to address after this draft. If young players such as Troy Williamson, Lorenzo Booker and Zach Miller don't work out, they'll become free agent casualties when the surprise players emerge in the first few weeks of the season. The sky is the limit for this squad in 2007.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #7 Slot (Stud RB Theory)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #7 (Stud RB Theory)

This theory is pretty easy to understand. Load up on running back talent in the first three to four rounds and try to carry that home to a title. Sure you may be weaker at QB and WR than other teams but you should have a huge advantage at RB. Let's see how it plays out.

Round 1: RB Willie Parker

You can't go wrong with drafting RB Willie Parker with the 7th pick in the draft. He should be able to match last season's production.

Rounds 2/3: RB Maurice Jones-Drew / RB Ronnie Brown

There are some very good receivers on the board here but sticking true to the Stud RB theory, two more running backs join the squad giving us a strong trio of running backs on the roster.

Rounds 4/5: RB Thomas Jones / WR Chris Chambers

It is very tempting to take Hines Ward in round four when you are still in need of a WR1 and it would probably be the smart move here. However this is a Stud RB study so landing a running back like Thomas Jones in round four is crazy value and gives this squad a clear edge over every other owner in terms of talent at the running back position. Thanks to going RB in the first four rounds, the receiver position will likely need some work throughout the year but this owner should be in great shape to make some trades to strengthen their squad as owners begin to panic for running back help later on in the season. Chris Chambers is a scary WR1 for a fantasy team but he does have the potential to exceed this draft position.

Rounds 6/7: WR Deion Branch / QB Donovan McNabb

These two picks are very easy to make. Branch is the best receiver still on the board and a no-brainer as my WR2. In the 7th round, being able to land a quarterback like Donovan McNabb is a very nice value pick.

Rounds 8/9: WR D.J. Hackett / TE Jason Witten

It is important to add a third receiver before the midpoint of the draft and D.J. Hackett has the best upside of the available receivers. It is tempting to forego the tight end position here instead focusing on receiver depth. However there really isn't a receiver here that really jumps out of the pack so the smart move is to secure strength at the tight end spot.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Donovan McNabb

RB Willie Parker
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Ronnie Brown
RB Thomas Jones

WR Chris Chambers
WR Deion Branch
WR D.J. Hackett

TE Jason Witten

Looking at the above roster, obviously the strength of the group is at running back. There is no pressure to add another running back to this powerful foursome so concentrating on adding receivers with upside is the correct play here.

Rounds 10-14: WR Jerry Porter, QB Matt Schaub, DEF Vikings, WR Drew Bennett, WR Troy Williamson

With a big need at receiver it made sense to grab three here in these five picks. Usually I will target the backup quarterback in round ten but Jerry Porter was tough to ignore at that spot. Matt Schaub is still an unknown option but he should be a serviceable backup for the team. I was going to wait on adding a defensive team but couldn't resist scooping up the Vikings defense here. The Vikings defense could be an elite unit this season. There are no sure things at receiver when you get to this point in the draft so I look for players in situations in which they could shine. Drew Bennett has been a top-ten receiver in the past and is now playing for the pass-happy Rams. He will get looks in this offense and could be money if he can make a push for a starting spot ahead of aging veteran Isaac Bruce. Troy Williamson has been a bust so far at the NFL level but is talented and has enjoyed a good offseason. He is worth the risk here and could become the WR1 for the Vikings.

Rounds 15-18: WR Dwayne Bowe, K Josh Brown, WR Dwayne Jarrett, TE Zach Miller

Sometimes I will add a second defense in the final rounds but it is a better play here to target more receivers with upside. Adding two rookie receivers here in the hopes that at least one emerges as a threat this season is a good strategy. You can always release these players in the first few weeks when surprise players emerge and both have exceptional talent. Waiting until the 16th round paid off as Josh Brown is a good option at kicker and once again I have targeted rookie TE Zach Miller who appears to be the starting tight end in Oakland.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #7 - Part Two: Stud RB Theory)

QB Donovan McNabb

RB Willie Parker
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Ronnie Brown
RB Thomas Jones

WR Chris Chambers
WR Deion Branch
WR D.J. Hackett
WR Jerry Porter
WR Drew Bennett
WR Troy Williamson
WR Dwayne Bowe
WR Dwayne Jarrett

TE Jason Witten
TE Zach Miller

K Josh Brown

DEF Vikings

Final thoughts on this roster

Obviously this squad is loaded at the running back position. Since I went running back in each of the first four rounds, it was a wise move to ignore the position the rest of the way and instead loaded up on receivers with the potential to exceed their draft positions. There are a lot of question marks at receiver for this squad but with eight players drafted, all of which with the talent to exceed their draft positions, it could become a strength of the team if the cards fall the right way. All in all this team is decent but with a trade or two, or a receiver or two surprising, could emerge as a legitimate threat down the road.

Tips on drafting from fifth through seventh overall

• Stay flexible
  
• Let draft come to you
  
• Be willing to stray from your predraft strategy
  
• Backup your starting running backs if clear-cut backup in place
  
• Try to mix proven talent with explosive upside
  
• Attempt to make smart decisions in the even rounds that could impact the strategies of the owners slotted one through four.
  
• Adjust your draft going forward if you alter your early strategy
  
  • i.e. Using an early draft pick on QB or TE

Last thoughts on the fifth through seventh slots

These spots aren't as appealing as the top slots in a fantasy draft but there is still enough talent here to make a strong push for the title. The key to this draft is getting a potentially stronger second round player than your fellow owners slotted in the first four picks. Unless you are going with a strong RBBC push, the best thing you can do with these picks is simply take the best player coming back in round two regardless of position. Don't force yourself into taking a running back allowing elite QBs or WRs to fall to the owners already blessed with an elite running back. Really concentrate on adding talent throughout the beginning of your draft and you'll be in the running.

If you do decide to incorporate the Stud RB approach, the receiver position will be weaker than most of the other teams in your league and you'll have to draft for potential and hope to strike it rich. However the trade options coming from this strategy is super and when teams get desperate as injuries strike, the potential is there to emerge with a tremendous deal to help your team. If this is your ultimate goal is to build RB depth, don't be afraid to be aggressive and target the position early and often to stockpile depth. The only way this strategy really helps you with these picks is to stockpile talent you can trade off later on. It's a riskier strategy but one that can really pay off.