Breaking Down Draft Slots #3 & #4

  Posted 7/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting third or fourth overall

There have been times in the past that drafting third or fourth overall is a major disadvantage because of the disparity in RB talent between the top two players and the next two players. However after LaDainian Tomlinson who is the clear-cut top fantasy running back this season, there are three players that appear to be almost neck and neck in Larry Johnson, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Because of this fact, the third and fourth positions are actually coveted this season because they'll get the advantage of drafting earlier in the even rounds as the draft rolls on.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is as much flexibility drafting from the #3 / #4 slots as there is in the first two slots and these owners will get the advantage of earlier picks in the even rounds. Since you've already got a stud running back guaranteed to score a ton of points for your squad if healthy, you can simply target the top player on your cheat sheet for the next couple of rounds. If you do decide to go with the stud running back approach, this squad should still be in a very strong position by the end of the draft although you lose the ability to stay at the top of the curve in regards to landing players at positions other than running back. Your hand is definitely forced more if you use the Stud RB approach but you'll have the strength at running back that will make owners envious and could turn into very nice trade possibilities down the road.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens to this owner, he may decide to forgo the running backs in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad with the stud running back and then locking in talent at other positions. If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Carson Palmer
   RB Frank Gore
   RB Cadillac Williams
   WR Roy Williams
   WR Santana Moss
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: Some leagues will see owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 24th and 25th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver, quarterback (Peyton Manning only this year) or tight end (only Antonio Gates should be considered this early in a draft. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. In a league like this an owner must be flexible and allow his predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Drew Brees
   RB Frank Gore
   RB Willis McGahee
   RB Clinton Portis
   WR Santana Moss

Positives of the draft slot

1. One of the top running backs
   
2. The ability to draft ahead of the #2 slot
   
3. The ability to be very flexible in the draft

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

For this study, instead of breaking down the third and fourth separately we will move forward in this fashion. The first part of the article involving flexible drafting will be accomplished using the third overall owner while the second part of the article will use the fourth overall owner. Because there is little to distinguish between the two draft slots, it makes sense to combine the study in this manner. If you want my opinion on which draft slot is preferred this season there is little doubt in my mind that the fourth slot is the better. The running back drafted in round one has as much potential as the second and third player chosen and they get the first pick coming back in round two. That is a nice advantage in my mind.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #3 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #3 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB Larry Johnson

Sure the Chiefs offensive line may not be what it once was but landing Johnson with the 3rd pick is a pretty nice beginning to a draft. He is an elite fantasy performer and he is a great cornerstone to a roster.

Rounds 2/3: RB Willis McGahee / WR Terrell Owens

More so than with the first and second draft positions, these owners find themselves with more decisions to make. With a couple of more picks to wait on between the even and odd rounds, this owner needs to weight the pros and cons of each draft pick. There were a number of different ways to go with this pick but in reality it was a pretty simple decision. There were a number of receivers available here and only two interesting running backs in McGahee and Portis. The easy move here was to scoop up McGahee and secure a great one-two punch at running back and then simply take the best receiver available when the third round pick arrives. In this case that player was Terrell Owens and he is a great pickup at that stage of the draft.

Rounds 4/5: WR Hines Ward / RB Cadillac Williams

With two running backs and a top receiver already on board, this becomes a very interesting spot to draft from. I almost pulled the trigger on QB Drew Brees a few times here but I couldn't resist taking WR Hines Ward and then RB Cadillac Williams in the fifth round which is criminal. Sure it would have been nice to land Brees here, but having a roster of Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Terrell Owens and Hines Ward is a tremendous start to a draft.

Rounds 6/7: WR Laveranues Coles / QB Matt Hasselbeck

I simply took the best receiver available here and a quarterback. Coles will be a strong WR3 for my squad and Matt Hasselbeck should provide consistent week-to-week production.

Rounds 8/9: WR Greg Jennings / TE Jason Witten

I was going to select TE Alge Crumpler in round eight but with three excellent tight ends still available and with one tight end already on the team with the 1st overall pick, I decided to wait. I was surprised to see two tight ends go off the board but still was pleased to land Jason Witten as my starting tight end. Greg Jennings is an outstanding WR4 for a roster and he could ultimately leap ahead of Coles and become my starter.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Matt Hasselbeck (7.03)

RB Larry Johnson (1.03)
RB Willis McGahee (2.10)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.03)

WR Terrell Owens (3.03)
WR Hines Ward (4.10)
WR Laveranues Coles (6.10)
WR Greg Jennings (8.10)

TE Jason Witten (9.03)

Rounds 10-14: QB Chad Pennington / RB Michael Pittman / Carolina D / WR Drew Bennett / RB Michael Bennett

As in the other articles in the series so far, this is the stage were I almost always add my backup quarterback and my starting defense. Some owners wait too long to get both and end up with inadequate talent. The talent at RB and WR has dried up enough here where it makes sense to target backup quarterbacks and defenses. I was happy to land Pittman to back up Cadillac Williams, guaranteeing my points at one RB spot. Some folks will argue strongly against drafting backups but to me, when you have clear cut starters for your squad (such as Johnson, McGahee and Williams), you don't need to add swing for the fences players. Instead, lock up points in case of injuries and you'll be fine. The exception of course is when there isn't a clear-cut backup. I thought about selecting Michael Bennett instead of Pittman but though there was a very good chance he'd be available later and he was. That enabled me to lock up fantasy production for the Chiefs and Buccaneers which will eliminate headaches down the road if injuries strike.

Rounds 15-18: K Nick Kaeding / WR Dwayne Bowe / Seattle D / TE Zach Miller

Landed my starting kicker, a strong second defense, a rookie receiver with upside as well as a rookie tight end with upside who looks like the potential starter in Oakland. In the earlier studies I focused on selecting Greg Olsen as my young tight end so in this one, I'll target the other great rookie in Miller.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #3 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Matt Hasselbeck (7.03)
QB Chad Pennington (10.10)

RB Larry Johnson (1.03)
RB Willis McGahee (2.10)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.03)
RB Michael Pittman (11.03)
RB Michael Bennett (14.10)

WR Terrell Owens (3.03)
WR Hines Ward (4.10)
WR Laveranues Coles (6.10)
WR Greg Jennings (8.10)
WR Drew Bennett (13.03)
WR Dwayne Bowe (16.10)

TE Jason Witten (9.03)
TE Zach Miller (18.10)

K Nick Kaeding (15.03)

DEF Panthers D (12.10)
DEF Seahawks D (17.03)

Final thoughts on this roster

This is a fantastic looking roster. The quarterback position isn't explosive but should be consistent week-to-week with veteran passers Hasselbeck and Pennington to rely on. You may switch starters at that position based on matchups as both are fairly equal players. Running back is set with Johnson, McGahee and Williams leading the way. The receiver position is also loaded with Owens, Ward, Coles and Jennings being a tremendous foursome. Add in strength at TE, K and DEF and this team will be extremely difficult to knock off.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #4 Slot (Stud RB Theory)