Breaking Down Draft Slots #3 & #4

  Posted 7/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting third or fourth overall

There have been times in the past that drafting third or fourth overall is a major disadvantage because of the disparity in RB talent between the top two players and the next two players. However after LaDainian Tomlinson who is the clear-cut top fantasy running back this season, there are three players that appear to be almost neck and neck in Larry Johnson, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Because of this fact, the third and fourth positions are actually coveted this season because they'll get the advantage of drafting earlier in the even rounds as the draft rolls on.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is as much flexibility drafting from the #3 / #4 slots as there is in the first two slots and these owners will get the advantage of earlier picks in the even rounds. Since you've already got a stud running back guaranteed to score a ton of points for your squad if healthy, you can simply target the top player on your cheat sheet for the next couple of rounds. If you do decide to go with the stud running back approach, this squad should still be in a very strong position by the end of the draft although you lose the ability to stay at the top of the curve in regards to landing players at positions other than running back. Your hand is definitely forced more if you use the Stud RB approach but you'll have the strength at running back that will make owners envious and could turn into very nice trade possibilities down the road.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens to this owner, he may decide to forgo the running backs in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad with the stud running back and then locking in talent at other positions. If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Carson Palmer
   RB Frank Gore
   RB Cadillac Williams
   WR Roy Williams
   WR Santana Moss
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: Some leagues will see owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 24th and 25th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver, quarterback (Peyton Manning only this year) or tight end (only Antonio Gates should be considered this early in a draft. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. In a league like this an owner must be flexible and allow his predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Drew Brees
   RB Frank Gore
   RB Willis McGahee
   RB Clinton Portis
   WR Santana Moss

Positives of the draft slot

1. One of the top running backs
   
2. The ability to draft ahead of the #2 slot
   
3. The ability to be very flexible in the draft

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

For this study, instead of breaking down the third and fourth separately we will move forward in this fashion. The first part of the article involving flexible drafting will be accomplished using the third overall owner while the second part of the article will use the fourth overall owner. Because there is little to distinguish between the two draft slots, it makes sense to combine the study in this manner. If you want my opinion on which draft slot is preferred this season there is little doubt in my mind that the fourth slot is the better. The running back drafted in round one has as much potential as the second and third player chosen and they get the first pick coming back in round two. That is a nice advantage in my mind.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #3 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #3 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB Larry Johnson

Sure the Chiefs offensive line may not be what it once was but landing Johnson with the 3rd pick is a pretty nice beginning to a draft. He is an elite fantasy performer and he is a great cornerstone to a roster.

Rounds 2/3: RB Willis McGahee / WR Terrell Owens

More so than with the first and second draft positions, these owners find themselves with more decisions to make. With a couple of more picks to wait on between the even and odd rounds, this owner needs to weight the pros and cons of each draft pick. There were a number of different ways to go with this pick but in reality it was a pretty simple decision. There were a number of receivers available here and only two interesting running backs in McGahee and Portis. The easy move here was to scoop up McGahee and secure a great one-two punch at running back and then simply take the best receiver available when the third round pick arrives. In this case that player was Terrell Owens and he is a great pickup at that stage of the draft.

Rounds 4/5: WR Hines Ward / RB Cadillac Williams

With two running backs and a top receiver already on board, this becomes a very interesting spot to draft from. I almost pulled the trigger on QB Drew Brees a few times here but I couldn't resist taking WR Hines Ward and then RB Cadillac Williams in the fifth round which is criminal. Sure it would have been nice to land Brees here, but having a roster of Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Terrell Owens and Hines Ward is a tremendous start to a draft.

Rounds 6/7: WR Laveranues Coles / QB Matt Hasselbeck

I simply took the best receiver available here and a quarterback. Coles will be a strong WR3 for my squad and Matt Hasselbeck should provide consistent week-to-week production.

Rounds 8/9: WR Greg Jennings / TE Jason Witten

I was going to select TE Alge Crumpler in round eight but with three excellent tight ends still available and with one tight end already on the team with the 1st overall pick, I decided to wait. I was surprised to see two tight ends go off the board but still was pleased to land Jason Witten as my starting tight end. Greg Jennings is an outstanding WR4 for a roster and he could ultimately leap ahead of Coles and become my starter.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Matt Hasselbeck (7.03)

RB Larry Johnson (1.03)
RB Willis McGahee (2.10)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.03)

WR Terrell Owens (3.03)
WR Hines Ward (4.10)
WR Laveranues Coles (6.10)
WR Greg Jennings (8.10)

TE Jason Witten (9.03)

Rounds 10-14: QB Chad Pennington / RB Michael Pittman / Carolina D / WR Drew Bennett / RB Michael Bennett

As in the other articles in the series so far, this is the stage were I almost always add my backup quarterback and my starting defense. Some owners wait too long to get both and end up with inadequate talent. The talent at RB and WR has dried up enough here where it makes sense to target backup quarterbacks and defenses. I was happy to land Pittman to back up Cadillac Williams, guaranteeing my points at one RB spot. Some folks will argue strongly against drafting backups but to me, when you have clear cut starters for your squad (such as Johnson, McGahee and Williams), you don't need to add swing for the fences players. Instead, lock up points in case of injuries and you'll be fine. The exception of course is when there isn't a clear-cut backup. I thought about selecting Michael Bennett instead of Pittman but though there was a very good chance he'd be available later and he was. That enabled me to lock up fantasy production for the Chiefs and Buccaneers which will eliminate headaches down the road if injuries strike.

Rounds 15-18: K Nick Kaeding / WR Dwayne Bowe / Seattle D / TE Zach Miller

Landed my starting kicker, a strong second defense, a rookie receiver with upside as well as a rookie tight end with upside who looks like the potential starter in Oakland. In the earlier studies I focused on selecting Greg Olsen as my young tight end so in this one, I'll target the other great rookie in Miller.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #3 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Matt Hasselbeck (7.03)
QB Chad Pennington (10.10)

RB Larry Johnson (1.03)
RB Willis McGahee (2.10)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.03)
RB Michael Pittman (11.03)
RB Michael Bennett (14.10)

WR Terrell Owens (3.03)
WR Hines Ward (4.10)
WR Laveranues Coles (6.10)
WR Greg Jennings (8.10)
WR Drew Bennett (13.03)
WR Dwayne Bowe (16.10)

TE Jason Witten (9.03)
TE Zach Miller (18.10)

K Nick Kaeding (15.03)

DEF Panthers D (12.10)
DEF Seahawks D (17.03)

Final thoughts on this roster

This is a fantastic looking roster. The quarterback position isn't explosive but should be consistent week-to-week with veteran passers Hasselbeck and Pennington to rely on. You may switch starters at that position based on matchups as both are fairly equal players. Running back is set with Johnson, McGahee and Williams leading the way. The receiver position is also loaded with Owens, Ward, Coles and Jennings being a tremendous foursome. Add in strength at TE, K and DEF and this team will be extremely difficult to knock off.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #4 Slot (Stud RB Theory)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #4 (Stud RB Theory)

This theory is pretty easy to understand. Load up on running back talent in the first three to four rounds and try to carry that home to a title. Sure you may be weaker at QB and WR than other teams but you should have a huge advantage at RB. Let's see how it plays out.

Round 1: RB Frank Gore

There are four great running backs this season with Gore being the fourth. With this pick you simply take whichever of the four players are left here and move on.

Rounds 2/3: RB Edgerrin James / RB Ronnie Brown

Adding two good running backs to the stable here is very impressive although both James and Brown have some question marks after last season. The problem with Stud RB is that the receiver spot is weakened considerably when it isn't addressed in the early rounds. Still, starting a draft with three potentially explosive running backs cannot be considered a bad thing.

Rounds 4/5: WR Hines Ward / RB Cadillac Williams

Ward was an easy pick here as he is the last player at that spot really capable of assuming a WR1 role on this team. Since this is a Stud RB squad and because of the awesome potential of Cadillac Williams, I couldn't leave him on the table with my fifth round pick. Taking him likely crippled me at receiver but built a stable of strength at the running back spot. There will be plenty of ability to play matchups with my RB2, RB3 and RB4 positions as the season wears on and I will likely receiver some sweet trade offers from desperate owners looking to add running back help. Interestingly, after I chose Williams, nine straight running backs went off the board which helped me for my next selection.

Rounds 6/7: WR Deion Branch / WR Mark Clayton

The receiver position could have dried up somewhat by this pick but with the large RB run in the fifth round, I was fortunate to land Deion Branch with this pick. I usually will go quarterback by round seven if I don't already have one on my squad but because of the potential weakness at receiver I ignored QB and took Mark Clayton.

Rounds 8/9: QB Brett Favre / TE Chris Cooley

Ignoring quarterback until now worked out well as Brett Favre is capable of doing great things. He scares me this season as I see some similarities to Dan Marino's final season but he could also represent great value if he can match last season's efforts. Chris Cooley was a no-brainer with my ninth-round pick.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Brett Favre (8.09)

RB Frank Gore (1.04)
RB Edgerrin James (2.09)
RB Ronnie Brown (3.04)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.04)

WR Hines Ward (4.09)
WR Deion Branch (6.09)
WR Mark Clayton (7.04)

TE Chris Cooley (9.04)

Rounds 10-14: QB Chad Pennington / WR Reggie Williams / RB Michael Pittman / Carolina D / WR Troy Williamson

As usual to this point in the series of articles, Pennington is the easy choice here in round ten. He is consistent and capable of a big week here and there. I wouldn't be too worried if I have to slot him in as my starter. I added two receivers here but both have serious question marks in regards to this season. If everything breaks well, both could outperform their draft slot but the potential is also there for both of them to bomb. As always, my starting defense was taken here.

Rounds 15-18: WR Dwayne Bowe / K Josh Brown / Cowboys D / WR Sidney Rice

I landed a good kicker and a great second defense here. The Cowboys defense will be considered a steal by the end of the season if you land them this late in the draft. Expect big things from them this season. Again I added another two reasons with boom or bust potential. If these receivers work out, my receiver position will be in good shape but there is a real chance both could disappoint as well.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #4 - Part Two: Stud RB Theory)

QB Brett Favre (8.09)
QB Chad Pennington (10.09)

RB Frank Gore (1.04)
RB Edgerrin James (2.09)
RB Ronnie Brown (3.04)
RB Cadillac Williams (5.04)
RB Michael Pittman (12.09)

WR Hines Ward (4.09)
WR Deion Branch (6.09)
WR Mark Clayton (7.04)
WR Reggie Williams (11.04)
WR Troy Williamson (14.09)
WR Dwayne Bowe (15.04)
WR Sidney Rice (18.09)

TE Chris Cooley (9.04)

K Josh Brown (16.09)

DEF Panthers D (13.04)
DEF Cowboys D (17.04)

Final thoughts on this roster

This is a very interesting roster. Quarterback scares me a little with the Favre/Pennington combo. I do not see Favre posting great numbers this season but history at least is on my side and he may be able to pull another rabbit from the hat this season. The starting receiver trio ended up OK Nothing flashy but Ward, Branch and Clayton can get the job done. The backup receivers however are risky with a capital 'R'. Talk about boom or bust potential. I took both Williamson and Rice from the Vikings hopeful that one would emerge as a legitimate weapon. However there is a risk that neither will do so and I would have to attempt to build the receiving depth through free agency. The good news however is that the running back position is very strong and gives my team some excellent trading opportunities down the road.

I don't see a championship squad here unless some of the receivers outperform their draft position but with a good trade or two, this team could be in a position to shine.

Last thoughts on the #4 slot

While Stud RB theory has its place in fantasy football, it is a mistake drafting 3rd or 4th not to simply let the draft come to you and pick off the best talent each time. You can wind up with a good team either way but to build a dominant squad in these positions, being flexible is the only way to go. If you do decide to go Stud RB, try to target receivers in the later rounds with boom or bust potential. No point there in drafting veteran receivers likely to put up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns but unlikely to go beyond that number. Go for potential and hopefully one or two nuggets will emerge. If not, those draftees will be cut in the first few weeks of the season for the surprise players that always materialize.

If you remain flexible in your draft, great things are possible with this pick. Along with the 1st overall slot, this is my favorite of the draft positions.