Breaking Down Draft Slot #2

  Posted 7/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting second overall

While not as potentially dominating as the top draft slot, drafting 2nd overall is a great place to draft from. In fact if used well, can ultimately be an advantage over the owner drafting 1st overall. Why is that you say? Getting to pick before the owner who drafted 1st overall when the draft comes back in the even rounds allows this owner to put the squeeze on the 1st position, trying to force his hand in a certain direction while you try to get the player you want coming back in the odd round. Tough to do against an experienced owner but if done well, the #2 draft slot can be a great place to be.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

As with the top position, the name of the game with this pick is flexibility. The obvious 1st pick is to take the top running back on your list. It is too early to look at another position and it is a fine luxury landing a top running back to build your foundation. Once that running back is in place, over the next few rounds, this owner needs to be patient, be willing to adjust predraft strategies and avoid following runs… If this owner can be the trendsetter instead of the sheep, this squad should find itself as one of the favorites to win the title.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that occurs, this owner may decide to forgo the running backs in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad with the stud running back and then locking in talent at other positions. If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Carson Palmer
   RB Steven Jackson
   RB Cadillac Williams
   WR Roy Williams
   WR Santana Moss
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: Some leagues will see owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 24th and 25th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver, quarterback (Peyton Manning only this year) or tight end (only Antonio Gates should be considered this early in a draft. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB / RB, WR, WR / RB, WR, QB / RB, TE, QB or many other possible combinations. It is important to be flexible and allow predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Drew Brees
   RB Steven Jackson
   RB Ronnie Brown
   RB Clinton Portis
   WR Santana Moss

Positives of the draft slot

1. Three of the first twenty-six players selected
   
2. Landing stud running back allows for more flexibility in your draft
   
3. Getting to pick before the top pick owner can help to set up your picks
   
4. With astute drafting, this owner can always be ahead of the curve

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #2 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #2 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB Steven Jackson

Round one is about as basic as it comes with the 2nd pick. Simply take the top running back available and don't look back. Getting a player such as Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson provides excellent strength at RB1, one of the keys to having fantasy success. If there is a clear-cut backup for the player selected here (i.e. - Michael Bennett for Larry Johnson), it is an excellent idea to try and lock him up in the later rounds to secure points at this spot.

Rounds 2/3: WR Marvin Harrison / RB Ronnie Brown

There are so many possible paths to take with these two picks. I decided to take WR Marvin Harrison and RB Ronnie Brown but it could have just as easily been any combination of Clinton Portis, Carson Palmer, Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald and Terrell Owens as well. Going with Harrison and Brown gave this squad a legitimate #1 receiver to go along with a good RB2 with excellent potential. If Brown can match potential with production, the combination of Steven Jackson, Brown and Harrison will be difficult to take down.

Rounds 4/5: QB Drew Brees / RB Cadillac Williams

Having two running backs and a top receiver on board here allows for this owner to be flexible once again. There are a few paths that could be taken here but being able to land Drew Brees and Cadillac Williams at this point in the draft is a major coupe. I could also target WR Santana Moss, WR Braylon Edwards or TE Todd Heap here but landing two players like Brees and Williams are pretty easy decisions to make. This squad has a very strong foundation at RB to go along with a top-three quarterback and an elite starting receiver. You can't go wrong with that combination.

Rounds 6/7: WR Mark Clayton / WR Jerricho Cotchery

This is again a pretty easy decision here. With RB talent drying up and a great quarterback already onboard, the only other option here is to take the best tight end available. There is a large group of tight ends to choose from however so it makes sense to wait on the position. Landing Clayton and Cotchery here gives this squad a nice trio at the position.

Rounds 8/9: WR Santonio Holmes / TE Alge Crumpler

It is nice to see TE Alge Crumpler still on the table and this is certainly the time to take him. However since the 1st-overall owner already has a tight end on roster, I can wait until the 9.02 pick to take Crumpler and target another position with the round eight pick instead. WR Holmes is a nice selection with the 8.11 pick and TE Alge Crumpler joins the squad in round nine.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Drew Brees

RB Steven Jackson
RB Ronnie Brown
RB Cadillac Williams

WR Marvin Harrison
WR Mark Clayton
WR Jerricho Cotchery
WR Santonio Holmes

TE Alge Crumpler

Rounds 10/11: QB Chad Pennington / RB Michael Pittman

With 20 quarterbacks now off the board, it makes sense to scoop up a backup quarterback here. Pennington's bye week works with my starting quarterback's bye week and he is capable of putting up some big weeks. Along with him, adding Michael Pittman here to guarantee touches at one of my RB positions is a nice move. When a clear-cut backup running back is available in the mid to late rounds, it is a great idea to draft him to secure points at the position. Don't reach on a questionable backup player but in Pittman's case, he is definitely the player who will get the touches if something happens to Cadillac Williams.

Rounds 12-15: Carolina D / WR Drew Bennett / K Nate Kaeding / RB Adrian Peterson (Chi)

This is the time in the draft when I typically look to flesh out my starters. The best talent at all the positions has been depleted so switching gears and picking up a good starting defense and a dependable kicker is a smart move although typically I will wait on the kicker position until the final quarter of the draft. It's important to follow intuition here and I will be ahead of the kicker run instead of joining it a round or two later.

Rounds 16-18: TE Greg Olsen / Seattle D / WR Sidney Rice

As always there are many different ways to end the draft. Having a player with the potential of TE Greg Olsen available to take as my backup tight end is too attractive to pass on. Often in a draft, I will simply take one tight end but when an intriguing player is available, you have to scoop him up. Same thing with selecting a second defense. I won't always do so but I like the Seahawks chances in 2007 and the value is too great to leave them on the board. Finally I take a stab at an all-or-nothing player in Sidney Rice who could emerge as the top receiver in Minnesota.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #2 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans (4.11)
QB Chad Pennington, NYJ (10.11)

RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis (1.02)
RB Ronnie Brown, Miami (3.02)
RB Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay (5.02)
RB Michael Pittman, Tampa Bay (11.02)
RB Adrian Peterson, Chicago (15.02)

WR Marvin Harrison, Colts (2.11)
WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore (6.11)
WR Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (7.02)
WR Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh (8.11)
WR Drew Bennett, St. Louis (13.02)
WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota (18.11)

TE Alge Crumpler, Atlanta (9.02)
TE Greg Olsen, Chicago (16.11)

K Nate Kaeding, San Diego (14.11)

DEF Carolina Defense (12.11)
DEF Seattle Defense (17.02)

Final thoughts on this roster

The strategy here has worked out very well. The quarterback position is set with the talented Drew Brees provided consistent scoring every week. Pennington isn't flashy but he will be a good guy to call upon when need be. The RB position is also in pretty good shape. Jackson will start each week and this owner could choose between Brown and Williams each week depending on the best matchup. The receiver position is in good shape but isn't dominant. If Marvin Harrison doesn't begin to show his age and youngsters Mark Clayton, Jerricho Cotchery and Santonio Holmes continue to improve however, this group could be very good. TE, K and DEF are all strong and this squad will definitely be a contender for the title.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #2 Slot (Stud RB Theory)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #2 (Stud RB Theory)

This theory is pretty easy to understand. Load up on running back talent in the first three to four rounds and try to carry that home to a title. Sure you may be weaker at QB and WR than other teams but you should have a huge advantage at RB. Let's see how it plays out.

Round 1: RB Steven Jackson

Same as the flexible draft strategy above, the clear pick here is Steven Jackson.

Round 2/3: RB Clinton Portis / RB Ronnie Brown

Instead of picking the best two players available here regardless of position, this time we simply take the best two running backs left on the board. In this case, Clinton Portis became our RB2 and Ronnie Brown our RB3. Obviously this gives us incredible strength at RB but since you can only start two each week, one of these players won't score on a consistent basis for your team unless injury hits. Having running back strength such as this can lead to favorable trades once the season starts which is one of the biggest benefits to the Stud RB theory.

Round 4/5: WR Santana Moss / QB Drew Brees

After loading up on RB talent in the first three rounds, it is time for strategy to come into play. There are three distinct paths that can be followed at this point in the draft. An owner could continue to load up on RB talent, crippling other teams in the process at the RB spot but in doing so really hurting their own WR core. Taking Cadillac Williams here for example would provide a dominant foursome at RB and could lead to some interesting trade possibilities down the road. Also this owner could take two receivers no matter who is on the board to begin strengthening the position clearly behind most other teams. However the third option here I like the best. QB Drew Brees is a potential fantasy monster and drafting him will provide this squad with tons of consistent fantasy points. Because the team that drafted first overall already has an excellent quarterback however I left Brees realizing he would still be there at 5.02. That made the 4.11 pick pretty simple in my mind and I simply took the best receiver available.

Round 6/7: WR Reggie Brown / WR Mark Clayton

With RB talent drying up and a great quarterback already on board, there really are only two options here. One would be targeting the TE position but with a bunch of good talent still on the board it made sense to wait on the position. That left me with an easy choice here and I will take two receivers and move on. Because I'm not able to land the elite receivers using the STUD RB technique, I like to target younger receivers for my roster hoping to have one or two breakout seasons to carry the position on my roster.

Round 8/9: TE Alge Crumpler / WR Greg Jennings

The 8th round pick here is very easy as TE Alge Crumpler is still available. For the 9th round pick it makes sense to go with a receiver due to the lack of elite receivers on my roster. Adding another young receiver such as Greg Jennings who is capable of becoming a great fantasy receiver could put this squad over the top.

At the halfway point in the draft, my squad looks like this...

QB Drew Brees

RB Steven Jackson
RB Clinton Portis
RB Ronnie Brown

WR Santana Moss
WR Reggie Brown
WR Mark Clayton
WR Greg Jennings

TE Alge Crumpler

Obviously this is a pretty strong team. If the young receivers can elevate their play in 2007, this has the makings of a dominant team.

Rounds 10/11: QB Chad Pennington / RB Michael Turner

Perfect time to land your backup quarterback and Chad Pennington is good enough. I have my doubts that Michael Turner will still be around in the 11th round in most leagues but since he is available here he is a great pickup for two reasons. The first reason is he could be a top-five running back in San Diego if LaDainian Tomlinson has injury woes. The 2nd is his possible trade value to the Tomlinson owner as the season goes on. Both are great reasons to take him here.

Rounds 12-15: Carolina D / RB Lorenzo Booker / WR Dwayne Bowe / WR Dwayne Jarrett

It's not too often I will take three rookies in successive rounds but the potential upside is too appealing. Booker is a guy who will backup my RB3 (Ronnie Brown) and guarantee points from that spot. Bowe and Jarrett have excellent potential and are worth the risk in this spot.

Rounds 16-18: K Josh Brown / RB Brian Leonard / TE Greg Olsen

It is nice to land a kicker like Josh Brown so late in the draft. The 17th round brings another rookie on the roster in RB Brian Leonard but one that has a real chance to get significant touches if something happens to Steven Jackson and does give me some security at the RB1 spot. Finally Greg Olsen has tremendous potential and is a great final pick.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #2 - Part Two: Stud RB Theory)

QB Drew Brees (5.02)
QB Chad Pennington (10.11)

RB Steven Jackson (1.02)
RB Clinton Portis (2.11)
RB Ronnie Brown (3.02)
RB Michael Turner (11.02)
RB Lorenzo Booker (13.02)
RB Brian Leonard (17.02)

WR Santana Moss (4.11)
WR Reggie Brown (6.11)
WR Mark Clayton (7.02)
WR Greg Jennings (9.02)
WR Dwayne Bowe (14.11)
WR Dwayne Jarrett (15.02)

TE Alge Crumpler (8.11)
TE Greg Olsen (18.11)

K Josh Brown (16.11)

DEF Carolina DEF (12.11)

Final thoughts on this roster

Really, one can never really go wrong with the Stud RB Theory. Building strength at running back will always keep a squad competitive and offer good trade value to other teams. The receiving core was purposely built very young which could be brilliant or backfire horribly. Going RB in the first three rounds left this team behind the curve at receiver and to make up the difference, I took a chance on a number of young receivers who could play way beyond their draft positions. Of course they could also fail to live up to the hype but that was a chance I had to take to attempt to make this team dominant. All in all, this team is quite good and would compete for the title.

Last thoughts on the #2 slot

The #2 position is a great place to be. In fact, the 2nd spot is almost as good as the 1st overall spot although you don't get LaDainian Tomlinson on your team. Steven Jackson is no slouch and getting to pick ahead of the 1st-overall owner in the even rounds can be an advantage when used well. If you draw the 2nd pick in your draft, you are in great shape no matter what strategy you follow in your draft. Personally I believe being flexible and letting the draft come to you is the best play here but if you are a huge fun of the Stud RB approach, you will still find yourself with a strong team.