Breaking Down Draft Slots #10, 11 & #12

  Posted 8/7 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting 10th, 11th, and 12th overall

Drafting from the bottom of round one is a much different experience than going from the top end of the draft. An owner drafting here isn't able to land an elite running back but the owner drafting 12th will wind up with two of the top-thirteen players on his board while the owner drafting 10th will land two of his top-fifteen players. Drafting from the bottom of the first round can be a very effective place to draft from if you map out an effective gameplan.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

From the 12th slot

Let's look at the owner drafting last in round one. He has the luxury of back-to-back picks but then will be forced to wait another 24 selection before drafting again. This is a draft slot in which it pays off to know the drafting tendencies of your league owners. Before the draft begins, the owner drafting 12th should really take a look at his cheat sheet and highlight running backs and receivers he believes could be bargains in the third through seventh rounds. It is important to know what talent will remain on the board after 24 picks. If the first eleven owners go RB here, it is very difficult to buck the trend and look at receiver/quarterback. However the only way this owner will get an advantage over his league-mates is to target other positions and add running backs later. In this case, going QB/WR would make a ton of sense as Peyton Manning and Steve Smith gives this squad the best quarterback, WR1 combo in the league. If Manning and a receiver or two are off the board by the 12th pick, it will then make sense to draft one or two running backs in this spot.

The owner drafting 12th should ignore the tight end position to at least round eight. Sure it would be nice to land a top tight end but it could cripple this team if one is selected early. The only one I would consider prior to round eight is Antonio Gates if he falls to the 36th pick but that is very unlikely.

From the 10th/11th slot

There are many parallels with these two slots and the 8th and 9th slots that were analyzed in an earlier study. It is absolutely necessary with these two picks to remain flexible and not be forced into targeting a position due to a heavy run. If the 11th owner sees ten running backs tumble off the board, any running back taken at eleven will be behind the curve of the running backs taken. Sure there is a chance he'll exceed his draft position but it's unlikely he'll move past the other ten running backs. It would make more sense here to target the best players at QB and WR and scoop up potential scoring at running back in rounds three to six. It is very tough for an owner to ignore running back in the first two rounds but owners here must find a way to get the jump on the owners with a better 1st round pick. If Manning and a receiver or two goes off the board prior to a 10th/11th pick, then it will make sense to target running back. The best strategy here is to let the draft come to you, don't panic and reach for players due to positional runs and adjust your strategy depending on who you select in the first few rounds.

Positives of the #12 draft slot

1. The benefits of having back-to-back picks (landing both players you really like)
   
2. Can influence the direction of the draft with the two picks
   
3. Easy to develop strategy for this slot as the draft unfolds

Negatives of the #12 draft slot

1. Agonizingly long wait in between even and odd picks
   
2. Feeling pressured into following runs can prove disastrous
   
3. Risky to wait on a position as it could dry up before the next pick arrives

Positives of the #10/#11 draft slots

1. Can take advantage of large positional runs by bucking the trend and selecting better value at other positions.
   
2. If talent falls to you here due to questionable picks, the 2nd round pick will turn this owner into a legitimate contender
   
3. Can target and usually land two players you are high on with only a couple of picks between the 1st and 2nd round pick

Negatives of the #10/#11 draft slots

1. Owners drafting ahead of this slot usually wind up with better running back talent
   
2. Cannot afford to make a mistake drafting as this slot is tougher than the first seven
   
3. Very long wait between the even round selection and the odd selection
   
4. An owner forced into a positional run, could be behind the curve of all other teams

For this study, instead of breaking down the 10th, 11th and 12th slots separately we will move forward in this fashion. The first part of the article involving flexible drafting but using a conventional strategy and will be accomplished using the 10th draft slot. The second part of the article will feature the 12th pick and go with a more unconventional strategy in the first two rounds to take a look at how it turns out.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #10 Slot (Conventional Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #10 (conventional drafting)

Round 1/2: RB Travis Henry / RB Maurice Jones-Drew

At this point in the draft there are so many different paths an owner can take. One possible path is the conservative route as we did here and select RB/RB. This would provide the start of a good squad thanks to a stronger #2 running back than most are blessed with. Other possible paths include RB/WR, WR/WR, WR/RB, RB/QB and any of those involving TE Antonio Gates. It's nice to draft two running backs here but there are no obvious ones available at this point which is why it can be intriguing to target the other positions.

Rounds 3/4: WR Lee Evans / RB Thomas Jones

Picking up WR Lee Evans here is an easy decision to make. This squad is in need of a receiver and he is the best of the bunch at this spot. The 4th round pick is a lot more interesting. Randy Moss is difficult to ignore in this position and he would be a tremendous WR2 for this squad. However with a running back like Thomas Jones available who could put up big numbers this season, he is the best choice to make. There are some question marks with the RB1 and RB2 positions on this team and adding Thomas Jones to the mix will provide a terrific alternate starter if need be.

Rounds 5/6: WR Santana Moss / QB Jon Kitna

A few interesting running backs are still on the board here but with three good backs already on the roster and only one receiver, the easy choice here is to selected Santana Moss. The 6th round is an interesting one and I ultimately decide to go with a quarterback. Adding another running back or receiver here also would make a ton of sense but getting a quarterback like Jon Kitna who is likely to put up top-five numbers this season in the sixth round is a major coupe.

Rounds 7/8: WR Chris Chambers / WR Darrell Jackson

Adding two receivers to the mix here is a very easy decision to make. With a starting quarterback and three running backs already on board, it is important to add another starting receiver and a quality backup receiver to the team before the talent dries up. Chambers and Jackson shouldn't be available at this point in a draft and they should exceed their draft position when it's all said and done. The only other possibility here is tight end but a number of tight ends are all grouped together on my cheat sheet here and I'll be able to pick one up the next time around.

Rounds 9/10: RB Mike Bell / TE Vernon Davis

Could take my starting TE in round nine but there are still a number of tight ends in the same tier so I will ignore the position one more round and instead grab the Broncos top backup running back in Mike Bell to cover my first round pick Travis Henry. That guarantees fantasy points from one starting running back slot on my roster and Bell is capable of putting up nice numbers if called upon. He is a very easy pick to make here. Finally I take my starting tight end in round ten and come away with 49ers young tight end Vernon Davis who could jump into the top-five at his position this season. It paid off to wait on tight end until this point in the draft.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Jon Kitna

RB Travis Henry
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Thomas Jones
RB Mike Bell

WR Lee Evans
WR Santana Moss
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson

TE Vernon Davis

At the half way point of my draft, I have assembled good running back depth, a solid receiving core, a young, promising tight end and a good starting quarterback. There are no glaring holes so I can simple fill in gaps and add talent for the rest of the draft.

Rounds 11-14: QB Byron Leftwich / WR Michael Jenkins / Carolina DEF / RB DeDe Dorsey

I have waited long enough to grab my backup quarterback and Leftwich is a nice value pick here. He will provide strong depth off of my bench and I have no problem with him having to start for my squad. Michael Jenkins is simply a grab for a decent depth receiver and RB DeDe Dorsey is a swing for the fences pick on a backup running back that will see action each week and is one injury away from possibly becoming a top-twelve talent. Also added the Panthers defense here and this unit will serve my squad nicely as a dependable starting option.

Rounds 15-18: K Jason Elam / WR Troy Williamson / TE Zach Miller / RB Lorenzo Booker

As always I look to add my starting kicker at some point in the final four rounds and picked up the talented Jason Elam. Next I take a chance on Troy Williamson who has had a good training camp and could emerge as the Vikings best receiver this year after a disappointing start to his NFL career. Finally I have added two rookies in TE Zach Miller and RB Lorenzo Booker who appeared destined to contribute each week and who could greatly exceed this draft position.

Final Roster (Draft Slot 10)

QB Jon Kitna
QB Byron Leftwich

RB Travis Henry
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Thomas Jones
RB Mike Bell
RB DeDe Dorsey
RB Lorenzo Booker

WR Lee Evans
WR Santana Moss
WR Chris Chambers
WR Darrell Jackson
WR Michael Jenkins
WR Troy Williamson

TE Vernon Davis
TE Zach Miller

PK Jason Elam

DEF Carolina Def

Final thoughts on this roster

I don't love this squad, but it is solid enough to compete. The problem with going RB/RB in rounds one and two is you ultimately end up behind the eight ball in both the running back and receiver position. Now the starting unit here is decent but it isn't exceptional and some work will need to be done throughout the year to become a legitimate contender. To summarize, going with a conventional approach at this point in the draft is a decent strategy but it would be better to step out of the box with an early pick or two at receiver to gain an advantage over your opponents.

Final thoughts on the 10/11 slots

This isn't an easy spot to draft from. I believe in most drafts I start in this position I will likely have both a running back and a receiver on my roster with the first two picks. However as with most drafts, the key is to remain flexible and not lock into a position. There are so many different paths to take with these two slots and it all depends on which way your fellow league mates go and which players are available to you. If you are flexible and willing to adjust throughout the draft, you'll be in good shape.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #12 Slot (Unconventional Strategy)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #12 (Unconventional Strategy)

Round 1/2: WR Steve Smith / WR Chad Johnson

One of the more difficult things to do for an experienced fantasy owner is to ignore the running back position in rounds one and two and instead target receivers in this spot. However in order to get an advantage on the teams at the top of the draft board, an owner drafting at the bottom of the draft must be willing to take some risks. This is a good year to target other positions than running back in the first couple of rounds due to some potential bargains later on in the draft. If an owner does decide to scoop up his top two receivers with these two picks, he'll have to adjust his drafting strategy for the remainder of the draft. It will become important to select a lot of running backs throughout the remaining 16 rounds in an attempt to build some strength at the position.

Rounds 3/4: RB Thomas Jones / WR Marques Colston

It is tempting to add two running backs here with a few capable ones to choose from. However we will add one running back here as Thomas Jones is capable of being a serviceable RB1 for the squad. Adding a great talent for my WR3 here is risky but solidifies the receiver position on this squad as clearly the class of the league. Instead of targeting running backs early and playing catch up other teams at more than just the RB position, now this unit has a position of strength that will help them to have an advantage most weeks against other owners. Being able to start WR1 Steve Smith, WR2 Chad Johnson and WR3 Marques Colston is a huge plus.

Rounds 5/6: RB Marshawn Lynch / RB Marion Barber III

My hand is forced with these two picks as I have to add running back talent before it dries up. Luckily for this squad, there are two good, young running backs available here capable of stepping in as decent RB2 options this season. Lynch could ultimately emerge as a decent RB1 option if he impressive during preseason and Barber III is the red zone option for the Cowboys.

Rounds 7/8: QB Ben Roethlisberger / TE Jason Witten

To get a good starting quarterback, I have to take one here. Roethlisberger is looking poised to put up big numbers this season and he'll be a nice QB1. I also could consider going running back here and waiting on quarterback but my pick here would be Reuben Droughns who could fall to round nine. I also consider waiting on tight end but with a long 24-pick wait before going again, there is a real chance the last of the good starting tight ends will be gone so it makes sense to add Jason Witten first.

Rounds 9/10: RB Reuben Droughns / WR Muhsin Muhammad

It ultimately did work out waiting on Droughns as he is still available in round nine. He is an easy choice to make here. While taking another running back crosses my mind here it is also nice to land a good backup receiver before they dry up and Muhammad will provide consistency from my backup WR slot.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this...

QB Ben Roethlisberger

RB Thomas Jones
RB Marion Barber III
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Reuben Droughns

WR Steve Smith
WR Chad Johnson
WR Marques Colston
WR Muhsin Muhammad

TE Jason Witten

At the halfway point in this draft, the obvious strength at receiver is countered by the mediocre state of the running back position. However it is likely drafting 12th that you'll be behind many teams at running back anyway and now you have tremendous power at the receiver position that will help to carry your team. The nice thing about the running back position is all four players drafted will see plenty of playing time and could emerge as the go-to running backs. It will be important throughout the rest of the draft to add several more running backs in the hope of some exceeding expectations.

Rounds 11-14: QB Chad Pennington / RB Anthony Thomas / WR Troy Williamson / RB DeDe Dorsey

As always round ten or round eleven is where I target a good backup quarterback. Pennington and Roethlisberger is a nice combo. It is nice to pick up Anthony Thomas here and he'll team up with Marshawn Lynch to guarantee touches from one of the RB spots. Thomas represents good value in round twelve either way but when you have Marshawn Lynch on the roster, Thomas is a tremendous addition. DeDe Dorsey has plenty of upside and could emerge as a player in the same mold of Dominic Rhodes and how he performed for the Colts in 2006. Dorsey is the type of 'swing for the fences' running back that it is important for this squad to add in order to make up for the mediocrity at the position. As always, Williamson has upside and is a value pick in the 13th round. He will also be the final receiver selected for this team due to the star power already on board.

Rounds 15-18: Seattle DEF / RB Kenny Irons / K Josh Brown / RB Lorenzo Booker

Waiting until the final quarter of the draft to take my starting defense and kicker hasn't hurt at all with the addition of kicker Josh Brown and the Seahawks defense to my team. Both have top-five potential in 2007. Finally I added yet another pair of running backs looking to strike it rich. Both rookie backs have lots of potential and could emerge as fantasy gems if something were to occur with the starting running backs in front of them. At worst, I expect Irons and Booker to get 5 to 10 touches per game in spelling the starters.

Final Roster (Draft Slot 12)

QB Ben Roethlisberger
QB Chad Pennington

RB Thomas Jones
RB Marion Barber III
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Reuben Droughns
RB Anthony Thomas
RB DeDe Dorsey
RB Kenny Irons
RB Lorenzo Booker

WR Steve Smith
WR Chad Johnson
WR Marques Colston
WR Muhsin Muhammad
WR Troy Williamson

TE Jason Witten

K Josh Brown

DEF Seahawks

Final thoughts on this roster

Going WR/WR to start the draft is a risky move but one that appears to work out quite nicely. Because of a potential problem at running back due to taking three receivers in the first four rounds, it is important to target the running back position often throughout the rest of the draft. Quite often in a fantasy draft I will take a second tight end and defense but in this case, it made way more sense to forget about backing up those spots and instead add running backs capable of surprising folks this season. The receiving core is clearly the best in this league and will carry this team. Running back may be weaker than most but the potential is there for these 8 players to surprise and put up good numbers. All in all, this is a pretty good team that will have a great chance at competing as long as a couple of backs emerge as legitimate weapons.

Tips on drafting 12th overall

• Stay flexible
  
• Let draft come to you
  
• Be willing to stray from your predraft strategy
  
• Don't be afraid to start unconventionally (WR/WR or QB/WR)
  
• Backup your starting running backs if clear-cut backup in place
  
  • i.e. Anthony Thomas for Marshawn Lynch
    
• Adjust your draft going forward if you alter your strategy
  
  • i.e. Using an early draft pick on QB or TE

Last thoughts on the 12th slot

It is more challenging to draft from the bottom of the draft than the top half. You can target the running back spot, allowing teams at the top of the draft board to have better RB1 and starting receivers than your team or you can switch it up and try and lock up real strength at the receiver or quarterback spot, hoping to find gems at the running back position later in the draft. This is a great year to attempt the WR/WR start to your draft as there are a lot of juicy options at running back after the first few rounds.

Good luck to you all and happy drafting.