Breaking Down Draft Slot #1

  Posted 7/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is discussion on the pros and cons for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe that it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is evident to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting first overall

Without question, drafting 1st overall is one of the best draft positions each year. Not only are you securing the best running back on your cheat sheet but you are also landing three of the top twenty-five players, and five of the top forty-nine players.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is so much flexibility drafting from the #1 slot. Since you've already drafted a stud running back guaranteed to score a ton of points for your squad if healthy, you can simply target the top player on your cheat sheet for the next couple of rounds.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad, RB, WR, WR (RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Torry Holt and WR Chad Johnson). If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Ahman Green
   RB Fred Taylor
   WR Torry Holt
   WR Chad Johnson
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 24th and 25th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver, quarterback (Peyton Manning only this year) or tight end (only Antonio Gates should be considered this early in a draft). In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. An owner selecting first overall must be flexible and allow his predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Ronnie Brown
   TE Antonio Gates
   WR Javon Walker
   WR Plaxico Burress

Positives of the draft slot

1. Three of the first twenty-five players selected
   
2. Five of the first forty-nine players selected
   
3. Landing stud running back allows for more flexibility in your draft
   
4. Back-to-back picks can offer a lot of value
   
5. With astute drafting, this owner can always be ahead of the curve

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #1 Slot (Flexible Drafting)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #1 (flexible drafting)

Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson

The start of this draft is incredibly easy as you simply take LaDainian Tomlinson and don't look back. Landing Tomlinson is obviously a giant step towards a league title and it allows for excellent flexibility in rounds two and three. When drafting Tomlinson it is a great idea to try and land his backup Michael Turner at some point in the later rounds. Don't overspend for the backup running back but if you can get decent value in securing his services, you will be set at RB1 for the entire season.

Rounds 2/3: WR Larry Fitzgerald / WR Roy Williams

Tons of options here so simply take the best two players on your board and don't look back. I thought about taking a Fitzgerald and Ronnie Brown combination but decided to showcase a team that chose a different path. Sure many fantasy experts will tell you to take at least one running back with these two picks but starting the draft with Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald and Roy Williams is an obvious advantage on your peers.

Rounds 4/5: RB Cadillac Williams / RB Marshawn Lynch

These two rounds will vary depending on your 2/3 picks in the draft. In this case, since we took two receivers in rounds two and three, going after two running backs here makes sense. Having Cadillac Williams and Marshawn Lynch still around in this spot is criminal and both are easy selections to make.

Rounds 6/7: QB Donovan McNabb / WR Reggie Brown

This is a great position to take a first quarterback depending on how the league is drafting. If you feel you can land a strong starting quarterback in rounds 8/9 you may be better served waiting for those picks. Landing Donovan McNabb at this point though is sweet. The 7th round pick can go a couple of different ways. A possible selection here is tight end Alge Crumpler but drafting McNabb's top target is a nice luxury. In the weeks both blow up, this team will be tough to knock off. Another option to think about with this pick is securing RB Michael Turner here to back up Tomlinson. There is a good chance he'll still be available when the next picks arrive however so it's better to wait at this time.

Rounds 8/9: TE Ben Watson / RB Michael Turner

It's time to pull the trigger on the tight end spot and Ben Watson is a huge talent who may ultimately prove to be a huge bargain in this position. Secondly, I did pull the trigger and selected Michael Turner. Guaranteeing touches in San Diego is an important strategy when taking Tomlinson.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this…

QB Donovan McNabb (6.12)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
RB Cadillac Williams (4.12)
RB Marshawn Lynch (5.01)
RB Michael Turner (9.01)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (2.12)
WR Roy Williams (3.01)
WR Reggie Brown (7.01)

TE Ben Watson (8.12)

Rounds 10-14: QB Chad Pennington / WR Devery Henderson / WR Drew Bennett / RB Michael Pittman / Patriots D

In these rounds look to flesh out the squad. Chad Pennington is a capable backup who is capable of putting up good fantasy numbers. RB Michael Pittman will backup my Cadillac Williams choice earlier in the draft. Devery Henderson and Drew Bennett are veteran receivers who have some upside and the Patriots defense will be a good option to plug into a starting lineup.

Rounds 15-18: TE Greg Olsen / K Jason Elam / Seattle D / WR Sidney Rice

An owner should always target his starting kicker somewhere in this spot and landing Jason Elam in the 16th round is outstanding. The 15th through 18th rounds of a draft is a great place to take risky players with a ton of potential. Rookie TE Greg Olsen has outstanding natural ability and athleticism and is worth the risk here. WR Sidney Rice is another rookie that could surprise with a good season. The nice thing in regards to Rice is we should know fairly early on what his chances are in the upcoming season. If it doesn't look too good for him in 2007, he is a perfect guy to release when free agency begins. I won't always select a second tight end but the potential of Greg Olsen is too much to pass up on and he has made some incredible catches in camps so far.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #1 - Part One: Flexible Drafting)

QB Donovan McNabb (6.12)
QB Chad Pennington (10.12)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
RB Cadillac Williams (4.12)
RB Marshawn Lynch (5.01)
RB Michael Turner (8.12)
RB Michael Pittman (13.01

WR Larry Fitzgerald (2.12)
WR Roy Williams (3.01)
WR Reggie Brown (7.01)
WR Devery Henderson (11.01)
WR Drew Bennett (12.12)
WR Sidney Rice (18.12)

TE Ben Watson (9.01)
TE Ben Olsen (15.01)

K Jason Elam (16.12)

DEF Patriots D (15.01)
DEF Seahawks D (17.01)

Final thoughts on this roster

I can sum up this team with one word 'WOW!' The QB position is set with McNabb and Pennington. The RB position is loaded with Tomlinson and Williams as the RB1 and RB2 and their backups in place. If either player falls to injury this season, plugging in Turner or Pittman into the lineup will be a nice luxury. The starting receiving core is powerful with two stars and an emerging young receiver. I also love having the McNabb to Brown connection and especially so when it is the WR3 position on the roster that involves that hookup. It will result in huge points some weeks and in the weeks where the connection fizzles out, I still have my WR1 and WR2 scoring points. The only real concern is at the backup receiver spot although Henderson and Bennett are more than capable if given an opportunity while Rice is a complete wildcard. Obviously this is a very dominant team who will contend for the title.

Part Two: The Mock Draft for the #1 Slot (Stud RB Theory)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #1 (Stud RB Theory)

This theory is pretty easy to understand. Load up on running back talent in the first three to four rounds and try to carry that home to a title. Sure you may be weaker at QB and WR than other teams but you should have a huge advantage at RB. Let's see how it plays out.

Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson

The start of this draft is incredibly easy as this owner simply takes LaDainian Tomlinson and doesn't look back. Landing Tomlinson is obviously a giant step towards a league title. When drafting Tomlinson it is a great idea to try and land his backup Michael Turner at some point in the later rounds. Don't overspend for the backup running back but if you can get decent value in securing his services, you will be set at RB1 for the entire season.

Rounds 2/3: RB Clinton Portis / RB Ronnie Brown

Starting the draft in this fashion gives this team a phenomenal trio at running back which will be the envy of the entire league. This squad will be behind the curve at WR though and will have to make that up throughout the draft.

Rounds 4/5: QB Drew Brees / WR Braylon Edwards

It is tough not to go WR/WR here but QB Drew Brees is simply too good to pass up on. He will provide consistency week-to-week from the QB spot and is good value with the 48th pick. Braylon Edwards is a good fantasy option but really shouldn't be the WR1 on a fantasy team. Will he get enough touches throughout the season to carry this position on my squad? Maybe not but with Brees, Tomlinson, Portis and Brown it may not matter.

Rounds 6/7: WR Mark Clayton / WR Reggie Brown

There is no doubt which direction to take in these two rounds. Going any other position than receiver here would handicap you for the entire year. Both Clayton and Brown are gifted, young receivers with a good upside and could exceed expectations.

Rounds 8/9: RB Michael Turner / TE Alge Crumpler

Landing Turner here is huge as I spelled out earlier and it is a great surprise to see Crumpler still available at this point in the draft.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this…

QB Drew Brees (4.12)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
RB Clinton Portis (2.12)
RB Ronnie Brown (3.01)
RB Michael Turner (8.12)

WR Braylon Edwards (5.01)
WR Mark Clayton (6.12)
WR Reggie Brown (7.01)

TE Alge Crumpler (9.01)

Rounds 10-14: QB Jake Delhomme / WR Drew Carter / RB Lorenzo Booker / WR Drew Bennett / Packers D

These are the rounds to flesh out your team. Almost always it makes sense here to select a backup QB, your first defense and then add depth to other spots. It is important to add two more receivers here but the pickings are slim. Still, Carter and Bennett are in good offenses and could surprise this season. Booker is taken to provide stability to the roster much like Michael Turner being added earlier. Booker isn't as sure of a bet as is Turner but he does appear to be the backup to Ronnie Brown and will guarantee touches for this team.

Rounds 15-18: K Nick Kaeding / WR Dwayne Bowe / Cowboys D / WR Sidney Rice

As always waiting until the last few rounds to take a kicker is a good move. Kaeding has a great chance to emerge as the top kicker this season. The Cowboys defense could be very strong this season and will provide a nice combo with the first defense taken in the Packers. Finally two rookie receivers, Dwayne Bowe and Sidney Rice appear to be in situations in which they could shine. If that proves not to be the case, they will be the first players released to land the prized free agents that emerge in the first few weeks.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #1 - Part Two: Stud RB Theory)

QB Drew Brees (4.12)
QB Jake Delhomme (10.12)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
RB Clinton Portis (2.12)
RB Ronnie Brown (3.01)
RB Michael Turner (8.12)
RB Lorenzo Booker (12.12)

WR Braylon Edwards (5.01)
WR Mark Clayton (6.12)
WR Reggie Brown (7.01)
WR Drew Carter (11.11)
WR Drew Bennett (13.11)
WR Dwayne Bowe (16.12)
WR Sidney Rice (18.12)

TE Alge Crumpler (9.01)

K Nick Kaeding (15.01)

DEF Packers D (14.12)
DEF Cowboys D (17.01)

Final thoughts on this roster

While still a strong squad, I do not like this one as much as the draft in which flexibility is the key word of the day. The running back strength on this team is obvious but it isn't so much better than the first draft in which the receiver position was selected in rounds two and three. There is a definite concern at receiver unless everything breaks favorably. The strength of this team at QB, RB and TE will definitely carry it far and if the young receivers can emerge as legitimate fantasy weapons, this squad will be gunning for a title. There is no doubt that this team would be one of the teams to beat if for nothing else the trio of Brees, Tomlinson and Portis.

Tips on drafting first overall

• Stay flexible
  
• Let draft come to you
  
• Be willing to stray from your predraft strategy
  
• Backup your starting running backs if clear-cut backup in place
  
  • i.e. Michael Turner for LaDainian Tomlinson
    
• Adjust your draft going forward if you alter your strategy
  
  • i.e. Using an early draft pick on QB or TE

Last thoughts on the #1 slot

Drafting first overall is a nice luxury and the owner willing to be flexible will build a tremendous squad. The key to drafting first overall is to let the draft come to you. Just because every owner in the first two rounds decides to take a running back with his first two picks, don't be pigeonholed into doing the same and emerging with weak value for your # 2 pick. Instead, take the top players on your list and avoid perceived runs with the # 1 slot. In a typical fantasy league, my top seven picks will resemble this much of the time:

• RB
  
• WR
  
• RB
  
• WR
  
• RB
  
• QB
  
• WR/TE

However that is just a guideline, and if your league goes a different route than you were anticipating, be ready to adapt to it.

If you do decide to incorporate the Stud RB approach, the receiver position will be weaker than most of the other teams in your league, and you'll have to draft for potential and hope to strike it rich.