Week 17 Sleeper Report

This article is a weekly look at player generally ranked outside the realm of every week starters. The players covered here usually fall into two categories: those with a good matchup or those who have an opportunity to start because of an injury to a teammate. On the other hand, sometimes a player may be considered if they are normal a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered with in descending order beginning with the players who are better gambles and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome.

Thanks to everyone for reading this year and Happy New Year to all of you.

Quarterback

Kurt Warner - ARI - Warner has been a terrific fantasy quarterback during most of the second half of the season. The Cardinals schedule was tailor made for success and he has not disappointed. He's managed to play through some injuries and stay healthy despite being without Larry Fitzgerald and/or Anquan Boldin for a stretch of games. Fitzgerald was limited in practice on Wednesday, but Boldin practiced, so Warner should be a solid guy to ride out the season. In week five, Warner took over for an ineffective Matt Leinart against the Rams and completed 14-of-28 for 190 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Since week 10, Warner has thrown for 2 or more TDs in seven straight games. He's also thrown 10 INTs in that stretch, but don't let that worry you. Warner looks like a solid play.

Jay Cutler - DEN - The Vikings allowed 254 yards and 2 TDs through the air last week to Todd Collins and the Redskins. Their run defense remains one of the toughest in the league, but they've allowed 283 yards, 1.3 TDs and 1.1 INTs per game to QBs. Cutler has been inconsistent in the last four games, but look for him to finish the season on a strong note at home. He hurt his leg last week, but he's expected to start against the Vikings. It's a great matchup, for sure, and Cutler should be able to make some big plays with Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and possibly even Javon Walker.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Tarvaris Jackson - MIN - Jackson isn't pretty to watch sometimes, but he is athletic and he's seeing the field better now with some experience under his belt. Last week, he threw for 220 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs but he also ran for 44 yards and 2 TDs to bolster his fantasy stats. It took him until week 13 to produce a 200 yard passing game, but he's now done it in three of his last four games. He's risky to use simply due to the potential for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to run wild over the Broncos run defense. Either way, Jackson might be worth a reach if you other options are hurt, resting for the playoffs or simply playing badly.

Sage Rosenfels - HOU - The Jaguars are locked into the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs, so look for them to give their starters plenty of rest this week. Rosenfels has started the last four games for the Texans and he has thrown for 827 yards, 7 TDs and 5 INTs with a rushing TD. He entered the game in relief of the injured Matt Schaub in week 6 when the Texans/Jags last played. He threw for 82 yards on 11-of-12 passing for 1 TD in that game. The Jags are allowing 236 passing yds/gm with 1.3 TDs and 1.3 INTs per game. Matt Schaub remained inactive last week and it's doubtful he'll return to the action this week giving Rosenfels ample opportunity to continue to audition for a bigger role with the Texans or with another team next year.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Kyle Orton - CHI - The Saints secondary went from bad to worse this past week after losing CB Mike McKenzie for the rest of the season. The Saints have allowed an average of 261 yards, 1.9 TDs and 0.8 INTs per game to opponents -- 3rd most fantasy points allowed to QBs in the league. In the last four games, they've allowed 1107 passing yards, 10 TDs and 3 INTs (not to mention 75 rushing yard) to their opposition -- McNabb, Kurt Warner and the great Chris Redman and Luke McCown. Orton is playing out the string for the Bears. Orton is 30-of-52 for 285 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in two games. Look for him to outperform those numbers this week against a Saints defense that needs an overhaul during the off-season.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Cleo Lemon - MIA - Neither team has anything to play for, but the Dolphins are at home and Lemon could simply benefit from the Bengals good offense and below average defense. In other words, the flow of the game could work in his favor. Lemon is not a very good NFL QB and there's always a chance that Cam Cameron could pull the plug on him in favor of rookie John Beck with the first pick in the draft already secure. The Bengals picked off Derek Anderson 4 times last week, but they also allowed 251 yards and 2 TDs and they're among the 10 best fantasy matchups in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Shaun Hill - SF - The Browns have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing QBs, but in their last two games they've performed much better thanks to some timely weather. This week, Shaun Hill gets his shot against the Browns, who are in the fight for the final AFC playoff spot. Hill was banged up last week and he's played the last few games with a broken index finger. If the weather gets ugly, then his chances of doing anything decent go downhill considerably. That said, there are fewer reliable options in week 17, so consider Hill if needed. In the last three games, Hill has thrown for 501 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs with 1 rushing TD.

Running Back

Pierre Thomas - NO - With Aaron Stecker banged up and Reggie Bush injured, Pierre Thomas may very well get the starting nod this week against the 24th ranked Chicago Bears run defense. The Bears have allowed 17 TDs to opposing RBs this year and Thomas could be the next in line to cash in. Thomas ran hard last week when Stecker rolled his ankle gaining 17 yards on 3 carries while catching six balls for 29 yards. For the season, Thomas has 146 yards on 30 carries. If Bush and Stecker are indeed out or inactive, Thomas is definitely worth a flyer and he just might carry the load for the Saints backfield and produce around a 100 yards and score. Stecker came up huge for those who ran with him the past few weeks. Thomas could carry that torch forward this week.

Dominic Rhodes - OAK - Rhodes emerged from the Raiders dog house two weeks ago to run for 41 yards on 7 carries against his former team (the Colts). Last week, he was the primary runner against the Jags. He carried 27 times for 115 yards and caught two balls for another 9 yards. The Chargers run defense is solid, but they are locked into the playoffs and barring a huge upset they may well rest most of their starters for much of this game. Rhodes could have another game around 100 total yards with an outside shot of getting into the end zone.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

T.J. Duckett - DET - Kevin Jones is done for the year so T.J. Duckett should get the majority of the carries this week for the Lions against Green Bay. It's not a great matchup by any means, but Duckett ran for 102 yards last week on 15 carries breaking off a 53-yard jaunt and an 11-yard TD earlier in the game. The Bears Adrian Peterson managed 102 yards on 30 carries with a TD against Green Bay last week, so Duckett could do something this week. Don't expect much out of Tatum Bell. If anything, the Lions might use Aveion Cason as a change-of-pace and as a receiver on passing downs. The biggest question with Duckett is how much the Lions and Mike Martz will be committed to running the ball this week. That's been the problem all year long. If they are, Duckett should be productive. If not, then don't be surprised if they run the ball 10 times all game.

Darius Walker - HOU - Dayne was active last week, but Walker got the start and all of the action. This week, one of them could be worth another look against the tough Jags run defense that will be resting for the playoffs. Even if Dayne is healthy, it wouldn't be a shocker for HC Gary Kubiak to continue rolling with Walker. The Texans will try to win this week to end the season at an even 8-8 and Walker has been productive in the last three games since being activated off the practice squad prior to week 14. Last week, he ran for 66 yards on 19 carries and caught 6 balls for 44 yards. If he starts again this week, Walker should produce 80 to 100 total yards, a handful of catches and a possible touchdown.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Darren Sproles - SD - Excellent matchup and the Chargers will almost certainly win this week's game in Oakland while barely breaking a sweat. The Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in the league and Sproles could get all of the carries in the second half and possibly even more. Against Detroit two weeks ago, he carried the ball 25 times for 122 yards and 2 TDs once the game was out of hand. Norv Turner could get him another 20+ carries this week against another bad run defense, so he could produce similar results.

Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG - Brandon Jacobs got hurt last week, left the game and then returned later enroute to a season-high 145 yards rushing and 2 TDs. After Jacobs was horse-collared at the end of a play, Bradshaw entered the game and proceeded to rip off runs of 15, 3, 11 and 6 yards. The last one of those four carries should have been a TD, but the Giants didn't challenge the call. No to be denied, Bradshaw got more action in the fourth quarter exploding for an 88-yard TD run. Jacobs needs just 56 yards to get to 1,000 for the season, but he was banged up last week and the Giants may not give him much of a workload at all this week. It wouldn't surprise me to see him barely play or not play at all. Either way, the Patriots will be trying to make history, but if the games gets out of hand (as it might), then Bradshaw could benefit as both teams rest up for the games that matter in the following weeks. Keep an eye on his status, though, since he did not practice on Wednesday.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Lorenzo Booker - MIA - Similar to Michael Pittman, Booker is a solid reach in PPR leagues. He has caught 20 balls in the last four games while combining for 275 yards in that span. The Bengals defense has been troubled all year long and this week should be no exception. The Browns tandem of Jamal Lewis (136 combined yards) and Jason Wright (72 yds) didn't have any problems last week against the Bengals, so Booker could have another solid all-around game producing 50 to 80 yards and a handful of catches.

Michael Pittman - TB - Pittman has caught 10 balls and carried the ball 20 times for 63 yards in the last two games, totaling 67 and 70 yards respectively. In PPR leagues, Pittman is definitely worth a reach in the last game of the season. He ran for 90 yards on 15 carries earlier this season against the Panthers defense, only this time around they'll be without Julius Peppers.

Gary Russell - PIT - The Steelers are going to the playoffs and they have little to play for this week, so look for them to get Najeh Davenport some work and then plenty of rest. Undrafted rookie Gary Russell is expected to backup Davenport this week, though Carey Davis will almost certainly get some touches, too. Davis had six carries for 28 yards last week, mostly in the fourth quarter, while Gary Russell has not been active most weeks. With Willie Parker out for the season and Najeh Davenport needed in a starting capacity in the playoffs, Russell should be active and take over for Davenport as the primary back early in this week's game.

Wide Receiver

Jabar Gaffney - NE - Gaffney has scored a TD in four of his last five games while producing 307 yards on 21 catches in that span. Gaffney has done this despite competing with the likes of Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth for targets, not to mention TE Ben Watson when he's on the field. Gaffney was the Patriots best WR in the playoffs a year ago, too. The guy has a great rapport with Tom Brady and the Patriots are going for the history books this week. If you're looking for a sleeper at the WR position, you'll have a hard time finding anyone with more upside than Gaffney.

Santana Moss - WAS - Moss has been heating up lately. I covered him in last week's sleeper article and he delivered the goods with a 4-71-1 game against the Vikings (great matchup). This week, Moss and the Redskins face their divisional rival Dallas Cowboys, who have nothing to play for and will likely rest their starters for most if not all of the game. Earlier this year, Moss produced a 9-121-1 game against Dallas with their starters playing. In his last three games against Dallas, Moss has produced the following: 4-69-0, 5-159-2 and 2-73-0. Moss has fought the demons this year dropping numerous passes and struggling through an unproductive year in general. Look for him to finish strong and to come up with another big play against the Cowboys this week as the Redskins have everything to play for -- a playoff berth is on the line.

Isaac Bruce - STL - Bruce was injured in week six when the Rams last played the Arizona Cardinals. In that game, Drew Bennett started in his place and he caught two balls for 32 yards and a TD. In Bruce's last four games against the Cardinals he produced 5-75-1 (10 targets), 3-79-0 (6 targets), 4-83-1 (4 targets) and 5-64-0 (8 targets). The Cardinals have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs this year. Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt are all in the lineup along with Bruce this week, so look for the Rams offense to finish the season with a solid, productive game and Bruce to be a part of the fun.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Darrell Jackson - SF - Those of you who gambled on Jackson this year hoped that he would bring a much needed veteran presence to the 49ers receiving corps. Instead, he was simply unproductive and left for dead by his fantasy owners by mid-season. Then, in the last two games, Jackson seemed to resurrect whatever potential he had by producing 8-86-0 and 2-27-1 against Cincy and Tennessee. The 49ers have another strong matchup this week against a Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs this year. Funny things always happen at the end of the regular season, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jackson go off this week. Check the weather in Cleveland first, but barring anything else, Jackson just might be worth a roll of the dice in this spot if you need to take a chance with your WR3.

Calvin Johnson - DET - The Lions have nothing to play for but pride this week. They're facing a divisional rival and it will almost certainly be Mike Martz's last game as the offensive coordinator. Johnson started quickly last week with 2 catches for 47 yards but he didn't catch a single ball after that and he finished with a total of 5 targets. Look for the Lions to get their top pick involved more frequently this week. Roy Williams is on IR and the Lions simply don't have a more talented option in the red zone. Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey will continue to be busy and they could both have solid games in a PPR capacity, but if you're looking for someone with huge potential that can scored TDs? Calvin Johnson is your guy.

Muhsin Muhammad - CHI - Muhammad hasn't done much of anything recently, but Kyle Orton has targeted him in the end zone in each of the last two games. Muhammad dropped the ball last week and he appeared to catch a TD in the previous week only to have instant replay overturn the call and the ball was placed near the 1-yard line. The Saints secondary has been battered all season long and now they are without their best corner, Mike McKenzie. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy production to WRs on the season, so look for Muhammad to go out potentially with a bang this week.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Nate Washington - PIT - The Steelers will rest their starters this week so Washington could get more targets than usual against a Ravens secondary who is without both of their starting corners. Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister are both on IR. Washington did well in their previous game against Baltimore catching three passes for 51 yards and 2 TDs.

Brad Smith - NYJ - Smith caught 5 balls for 45 yards last week on 8 targets against the Titans. Jerricho Cotchery was the Jets most productive WR by a long shot, but Smith has some big play ability and he also takes some snaps as a QB and RB from time to time, too. The Chiefs are vulnerable to big plays in their secondary, so Smith is a decent reach and someone worth gambling on if your other options are dicey.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Koren Robinson - GB - Robinson caught two balls for 50 yards in the Packers last game against Detroit. This week, the Packers will simply be looking to put the Lions away early and then focus on their preparation for the playoffs. Robinson figures to get some extra work against a Lions secondary that has been beaten like a drum this year. In the previous game in Detroit, Donald Driver produced 10-147-0, Greg Jennings 5-60-2 and James Jones 5-75-0. The obvious risk here is the Packers jumping out to an early lead and then simply using the ground game to control the clock and play out the string.

Ted Ginn - MIA - Ginn has appeared at least a few times in this column throughout the season. He's not really much of a play, but he always has that allure of being the home run threat that is enticing for those of you just looking to roll the dice. Why roll the dice on a guy with no big play potential? Ginn might not do anything at all, but he has a chance to do something against a bad Bengals defense in a week where nobody really has anything to play for in this game except their next contract.

Tight End

Vernon Davis - SF - Davis has come on strong down the stretch and he's now 13th among fantasy TEs in year-to-date scoring. He has 3 TDs since week 12. In his last six games, he has produced 40 yards or scored in five of those games. The Browns have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs this year so look for this supremely talented TE to finish the season with a bang.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN - The Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs this year. Shiancoe has only 7 catches in the last four games, but he did catch four balls for 20 yards last week against the Redskins. Other TEs besides Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates have been productive against the Broncos, too, like Owen Daniels (3-53-0) in week 15, rookie Zach Miller (3-58-1) in week 13, Desmond Clark (2-61-0) in week 12, Bo Scaife (4-49-0) in week 11 and let's not forget Sean McHugh's 46-yard reception against the Broncos on Thanksgiving.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Brent Celek - PHI - With L.J. Smith sidelined, Celek has responded with some solid play in the last two games. Celek is essentially auditioning for a starting job next year with Smith a free agent in waiting. Celek produced 2-35-0 on 3 targets last week and 3-50-0 on 4 targets the previous week. When teams are out of the playoffs and you run the risk of some players simply going through the motions, it's good to have someone like Celek in your back pocket knowing that he's hungry, playing for a bigger role next year and ultimately looking to make an impression.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Zach Miller - OAK - Miller caught a TD the last time the Raiders played the Chargers (3-17-1 on 5 targets). This week, JaMarcus Russell makes his first start so anything could happen. Most likely, it will involve several Chargers sacks and forced turnovers, but also the possibility for some quality garbage time for the two rookies to connect in the second half and put some numbers on the board. Miller caught a TD last week and he has produced a stretch of four straight decent games from weeks 10 thru 13. The Chargers have allowed an average of 5-50-0.4 to opposing TEs this year, too. It's a decent matchup and strife with opportunity for the Raiders young bucks to make an impression in an otherwise meaningless game for them.

Sean McHugh - DET - Why? Because Mike Martz likes to get cute around the goal line and this could very well be his last game on the Lions coaching staff. Forget that McHugh is not a starting caliber NFL tight end. He's playing a Packers defense that has nothing to play for and they've allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TEs this year. Last week, both of the Bears TEs did something noteworthy. Desmond Clark caught a TD while Greg Olsen caught the 2-point conversion. Obviously, McHugh is a huge shot in the dark, but don't be surprised if he catches a 1-yard TD and does nothing else the entire game (except maybe drop a potential TD or first down catch).