Week 1 Sleeper Report
by Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.comQuarterback
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper) David Garrard - JAX - In one of David Garrard.s handful of starts last season, against the Titans, he threw for 3 TDs and led the Jags to a route. This year, he.s in a similar situation after Head coach Jack Del Rio pulled the plug on Byron Leftwich one week prior to the season opener, opting to release the Jags former first round pick. Garrard is a viable dual threat and the Titans defense has much to prove with PacMan Jones, their top corner, suspended for the entire season. Alex Smith - SF - It seems like whenever the Cardinals and 49ers meet each other a high-scoring game ensues. Smith has better talent around him in his third season with TE Vernon Davis healthy again and WR Darrell Jackson. Jackson is an improvement over the departed and problematic Antonio Bryant. The Cardinals secondary remains a work in progress and former first round pick Antrel Rolle was bumped from the starting lineup by free agent addition Roderick Hood. The Cardinals also lost one of their top pass rushers in Chike Okeafor to a season-ending injury in the preseason. Smith should have some time to setup and find his receivers against Arizona and with the improved skill players around him; he could be a viable starter this week. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper) Jeff Garcia - TB - The Seahawks secondary underperformed last year and they underwent a makeover during the offseason with three new starters in place. Former starters Ken Hamlin, Michael Boulware and Kelly Herndon were either released or dealt and replacing them is the veteran safety tandem of Brian Russell and Deon Grant. Kelly Jennings replaces Herndon at the other corner spot opposite Marcus Trufant, who as the team.s top corner is beatable himself. Garcia has been productive whenever he.s been healthy and on a team where he.s surrounded by good talent. Tampa.s not Philly, but it.s far better than either Detroit or Cleveland. He probably won.t be among the top 10 fantasy QBs this week, but he won.t be among the worst ones either. Eli Manning - NYG - As of Wednesday, it looks like Eli will have Plaxico Burress in the lineup on Sunday. Jeremy Shockey is healthy and Amani Toomer looked good in the preseason after coming off a season-ending torn ACL a year ago. Tiki is no longer around to serve as his dangerous safety valve, but rookie Steve Smith and Sinorice Moss give Eli more talented options when the team goes to multiple receiver formations . a luxury he did not have in years past. Plus, the Cowboys will be without their top corner Terance Newman making their secondary more vulnerable. Manning should finish somewhere around where he was ranked in the preseason . somewhere around the 10th to 15th quarterback. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside) Matt Schaub - HOU - Schaub looked sharp during the preseason and he appears to have better talent surrounding him than the Texans had in the past with David Carr. Ahman Green gives the team a credible threat in the backfield but it.s questionable whether Kevin Walter is an upgrade over the departed Eric Moulds. Jacoby Jones gives the team.s a big play threat as their 3rd WR and Owen Daniels looks like the team.s #2 receiving option. The Chiefs will be without DE Jared Allen, who is serving a 2-game suspension. If the Texans pass protection holds up (it hasn.t in the past) then Schaub could be a decent reach this week. However, in week one, most team.s have a viable starter and don.t need to reach since injuries and benching haven.t become a factor yet. In leagues that start two quarterbacks, Schaub is a solid option for that QB2 slot. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues) Daunte Culpepper - OAK - The Raiders are keeping their starting quarterback under wraps for the season opener, but conventional wisdom points towards Culpepper being the starter against the Lions. Culpepper looked surprisingly mobile during the preseason after he returned to the field too quickly a year ago only to serve as a pinata for opposing defenses. The Raiders o-line still has holes, but their offense is light years ahead under new HC Lane Kiffin compared to the archaic system in place a year ago, too. Culpepper could be this year.s Renaissance man if his knee holds up and this first matchup of the season is a strong one. The Lions secondary has plenty of new faces and, with it, plenty of holes. As a QB2 in 2-quarterback leagues, Culpepper has enough upside to roll the dice, but enough downside in normal leagues to wait until Kiffin declares his starter.Running Back
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper) LaMont Jordan - OAK - Jordan has a 4-week window where he can make a statement to the team.s coaching staff about being the team.s primary back and playing himself out of a likely RBBC with Dominic Rhodes. Jordan ran hard and played well during the preseason action and the Lions defense has not been very stout against the run either. I like Jordan.s motivation during these first four games, but on the flipside, the Lions defense should be improved up front and Shaun Rogers could prove to be a limiting factor if he can match Jordan.s motivation and play from the defensive side as the Lions most disruptive force up front. Fred Taylor - JAX - Taylor approached this offseason with a renewed purpose. Despite his age, he remains at the top of his game and with a little extra motivation, too. He.ll split carries, of course, and he won.t get any goal line touches or catch as many passes as Maurice Jones-Drew. Taylor could be very productive though against his long-time divisional rival Tennessee Titans. Taylor is a solid RB2 and an excellent RB3/flex option this week. Cadillac Williams - TB - Williams appears to be 100% healthy despite concerns over his foot problems in the past and, more seriously, problems with his back. Williams ran well in the preseason and he looked ready to roll. The Seahawks are without their top run stuffing DT Marcus Tubbs again after he was placed on the season-ending IR as the team made their final cuts. Williams may even get more goal line carries this year with Mike Alstott on IR. Williams looks like a great sleeper pick this week, so ride this cat while he.s healthy and hope for the best. Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper) Tatum Bell - DET - OL, by now most of you with any experience in fantasy football know the drill around here. Everything is a ploy to motivate Tatum Bell. Assuredly, the Lions decision to keep Kevin Jones off the PUP list was just another of those moves to light a fire under the inconsistent and often dinged up Tatum Bell. T.J. Duckett looks like he will vulture any goal line touches away from Bell, but it would be a surprise to see Jones involved in this week.s game. Bell and Duckett may very well split carries and form a 2-man committee until Jones is ready. Oh yeah, the Raiders run defense was among the worst in the league last year. Bell should be productive, but he may not get the bulk of the carries, so start him only as a flex (RB3) or RB2 in deeper leagues. DeShaun Foster - CAR - While most of us thought DeAngelo Williams would surpass Foster for the starting job this year it has not come to pass (yet). Foster worked hard during the offseason to retain the job and, simply put, he has talent and the Rams defense has been a good matchup for opposing RBs for a couple years now. They upgraded the line during the offseason and they could be considerably improved over last year, so start Foster with moderate confidence knowing the downside: Williams will get some carries and the Rams could be improved enough to mitigate the Panthers ground attack and render Foster less than productive from a fantasy standpoint. Chester Taylor - MIN - As a starting running back, Taylor has plenty of risk with the looming threat and presence of talented rookie Adrian Peterson coming off the bench to share carries with him. That said, the Falcons defense underperformed a year ago and still has many unanswered questions entering the season. It appears to be a solid matchup, but Taylor is a gamble because there.s no way of predicting how many touches he.ll get or if Peterson will handle the rock near the goal line. As a RB3 in flex leagues, Taylor is a great player to work into the mix. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside) Marshawn Lynch - BUF - Lynch.s struggles during the preseason are well documented. He averaged less than 3 yards per carry and he may not be the team.s primary ball carrier to start the season despite being a high first round pick. The Broncos run defense promises to be above average, too. On the flipside, Lynch should be able to catch some passes and offer more upside in PPR leagues and there.s the idea that HC Dick Jauron simply kept the team.s offense extremely vanilla and they haven.t shown much of what they intend to do in the regular season yet. That.s wishful thinking perhaps, but if the Broncos jump out to an early lead in this game (very possible), then Lynch could be the benefactor of dump passes and good ole garbage time stats. Adrian Peterson - MIN - It.s awfully difficult to draft a back as talented as Peterson in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th round to have this sort of dilemma for your first lineup of the season. 99% of the time, when you draft a player that high, you put him in the lineup without fail. However, Peterson remains behind Chester Taylor on the official depth chart and it.s hard to gauge whether he.ll see 5, 10 or 20 carries against the Falcons, Conventional wisdom says Peterson will get enough touches to warrant production as a RB3 as a flex starter, but because Taylor is in that starting spot, it.s easier to get behind Taylor than it is Peterson right now. It.s hard to envision HC Brad Childress not unveiling his new toy at the first chance he gets this week, so I.d lean towards the gambling side of go with Peterson if you drafted him. Just set your expectations accordingly. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues) Vernand Morency - GB - Include Brandon Jackson as a desperate shot as well.The Packers appear to be going with Morency as their opening day starter judging by the team.s recently released depth chart that lists Morency in the top spot. Of course, Morency hasn.t played since the first few days of training camp due to a knee injury providing rookie 2nd round pick Brandon Jackson with an opportunity to seize the job and run with it. Jackson had some success in the games, but he suffered a concussion just over a week ago in practice to cast a cloud over his status for the opener. To make matters worse, Noah Herron was placed on season-ending IR as the team made final roster cuts leaving Morency, Jackson and fellow rookie DeShawn Wynn as the likely candidates for the team.s RB duties. The Eagles have been sporadic against the run in recent years, so there.s reason to believe the Packers could find some success against them this week. Plus, the Packers backs have struggled to pickup blitzes and protect Brett Favre so one could surmise that they.ll attempt to lean more heavily on the ground game and pass more frequently in neutral or run situations to keep their offense from getting into obvious passing situations. The Eagles defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson loves to blitz on any down and from just about any position, so the Packers RBs will have their hands full in that area. Starting either one of the Packers backs projected to be in a RBBC is risky business right now, but as a flex starter you might be able to get some production, particularly in PPR leagues.
LenDale White - TEN - While the Jags run defense has been strong in recent years, the Titans offensive line is among the more underrated in the league. White has long been the subject of stale .FatDale. jokes so he has plenty of motivation to continue building on a solid preseason and prove that he can carry the mail like Travis Henry did last year. White will share carries with Chris Brown, but if he gets 12-to-15 carries (a conservative estimate) then he could be worth a look in deeper leagues with potential for 50-to-60 yards and a couple of catches.Wide Receiver
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper) Patrick Crayton - DAL - Pending the status of Terry Glenn, of course, but if Glenn is not in the lineup this week then Crayton will be and he.s worth a shot in the lineup in that situation. Crayton will see single coverage all day long and he.s made the most of his previous opportunities. He.s big, physical and has good hands. Keep your eyes peeled on Glenn.s status, but if he.s a scratch, then pencil Crayton into the lineup with confidence. Braylon Edwards - CLE - If anything, Edwards was consistent and productive during his playing time in the preseason. He and Charlie Frye have been able to build some rapport over the past couple seasons. The Steelers, on paper, appear to be a favorite to win this game which theoretically would give Edwards potentially more targets if the Browns are down and have to throw more frequently. Edwards has .A. talent, but he has yet to reach his potential due to injuries and some behavioral issues. He.s not a bad kid though and he looks to be going in the right direction this year having learned from his lessons. Look for a potentially fast start here for Edwards against a Steelers secondary that may be more vulnerable than in years past. Jerry Porter - OAK - Include Ronald Curry as a Prime Cut as well.While both of these receivers probably won.t be super productive this week, it.s very possible that one of them could have a big game against the Lions secondary. Curry is a better bet to see more targets while Porter might be a better threat to find the end zone or make big plays. Curry and Porter are both healthy and the Raiders passing game looks like it could rebound from an abysmal 2006 season in a hurry under the guidance of HC Lane Kiffin.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper) Arnaz Battle - SF - With Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Darrell Jackson among the team.s skilled players on offense, it.s easy to forget about Battle. There.s a good chance that Battle could lead the team in targets this week and the defense will probably be game planning and scheming to stop Davis and Jackson more than they.ll be concerned by Battle. He.s a decent gamble in leagues that start 3 WRs and use a flex, especially in PPR leagues. So, if you.re sitting on Battle and have a decision to make with other questionable starters, Battle might be the one you roll the dice with this week. It.s a good matchup and Battle could produce 4 to 6 catches. Bobby Wade - MIN - Wade is the odds on favorite to be the team.s most targeted receiver this year despite the feeling that he would better serve the team as their No. 3 receiver in the slot than on the outside in the starting lineup. He was productive in the preseason and he led the Titans WRs last year in the slot. He is worth a shot as a WR3/WR4/flex starter this week. Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside) Keary Colbert - CAR - Colbert won the starting job in the preseason opposite Steve Smith over Drew Carter and highly touted first round pick Dwayne Jarrett. One thing is certain, the Rams will be far more concerned with their game plans about defending Steve Smith and the Panthers running game than they will be about Colbert.s presence. The Rams corners look vulnerable on paper and they struggled last year, but that was a different team. Colbert made some big plays in the preseason and he has a chance to make a few in this game and as long as he stays in the lineup. He won.t see any double teams as long as Steve Smith is on the field, so consider Colbert in deeper leagues as your last starter at WR or in a flex position. Maurice Stovall - TB - Continuing with the same theme as Colbert. Stovall ascended to the starting lineup during the preseason despite strong competition from David Boston, Ike Hilliard and the incumbent starter Michael Clayton. Stovall was listed on the team.s depth chart opposite Joey Galloway heading into this week.s game and HC Jon Gruden started using him during last year around the goal line taking advantage of his size and hands. Stovall was a TD machine at Notre Dame and he could have the same effect in the Bucs lineup now that he.s starting. Roddy White - ATL - During the preseason White developed into a focal point of the Falcons passing game. He was a huge disappointment in his first two years due to nagging injuries, dropped passes and an assortment of other shortcomings. Yet, this summer he appeared to be over the proverbial hump in Bobby Petrino.s new offensive scheme. He ascended to the starting lineup, where he.ll start opposite the veteran free agent addition Joe Horn. White is a more of a big play threat than Horn at this stage of their career.s but Michael Jenkins and Alge Crumpler have been the focus of the team.s passing targets in the red zone in the past. Can White become that guy this year? Much will be riding on his performance this week against a decent Vikings defense, so give him a shot if you.re feeling the White love. If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues) Bobby Engram - SEA - Engram remains in his usual spot . the team.s third WR and starter in the slot when the team goes to 3-WR sets. Engram is also the #1 read on several of the team.s passing plays and he has developed a great rapport with Matt Hasselbeck over the years. The Bucs secondary isn.t what it used to be and Engram.s veteran presence could be the apple of Hasselbeck.s eye again in this matchup. He.s a better candidate as a flex starter or WR3/WR4 in teams with 12 or more teams so use him with some discretion obviously. Brandon Marshall - DEN - EEEEEEE! That.s the unmistakable call of our good friend and fellow Footballguy Sigmund Bloom whenever Marshall.s name is invoked as it might be in this week.s season opener. Marshall appears to be the team.s No. 3 WR for now behind Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley, but there.s no question that this kid has the physical abilities to emerge opposite Walker to give the Broncos two intimidating WRs for defenses to find ways to stop. Marshall could be the object of a mismatch against the Bills secondary . stung by the loss of top corner Nate Clements via free agency. Marshall is a longshot until he provides some consistent scoring or passes Stokley on the depth chart, but he.s still someone to keep on your radar and consider gambling on as a flex starter in deeper leagues. Mike Williams - OAK - Williams makes this list more out of an entertainment perspective than sound reason and logic. Williams faces the team that selected him with their top pick a couple years ago in the opener giving plenty of fuel for the old motivational angle. Williams did look good in the red zone during the preseason and HC Lane Kiffin hinted that Williams could be used as a weapon this year after watching him have success in training camp this summer. Williams was a TD machine at USC under Kiffin.s mentoring so there.s a fair chance he could put it to his former team this week if given the opportunity. As a Lions fan, I expect it to happen, but as a fantasy WR he.s a tremendous long-shot to produce since he.s not even starting for his own team.