Roundtable - Week 1
Posted 9/6 by Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:
- Saints-Colts on Thursday Night
- Dolphins' Offense
- Some RBBC situations?
- Second-Year QBs
- What to look for in week one?
Saints-Colts on Thursday Night
Welcome to the 2007 edition of the Roundtable, everyone. We get a real treat on this opening week of NFL football with a great Thursday night matchup between the Colts and Saints -- two super high-powered offenses from last year. Jumping right to the first question: Will Drew Brees and the Saints' offense be able to catch lightning in a bottle again this year, or was 2006 a bit of a fluke in that regard?
Anthony Borbely: I think the Saints will be even better than last year. Last year, they had a new coach with a new system, a new starting QB who was limited in practice early on because he was recovering from his shoulder injury, a rookie RB, a rookie WR, trading Stallworth, and a number of different WRs having to play last year, with Colston and Horn missing time. They now have a year in the system, Bush and Colston have a year of NFL experience, Brees is completely healthy from the start, and they should be a confident team after the great 2006 season. Bush has a huge second half last season, and he is primed for a great year. Having his receiving yards gives Brees a great shot to hit well over 4000 yards, and he has a chance to be the #1 fantasy QB this year. I see him as a top 3 regardless.
Chase Stuart: I don't think much was a fluke for the 2006 Saints. Bush, McAllister and Brees have had success before, with Bush winning a Heisman, McAllister earning two trips to Hawaii and Brees having made a Pro Bowl with the Chargers. Colston was simply too good to have been a fluke; he was the top fantasy WR before his injury in week 10, and only Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin have been as good as rookies. The future is bright for all four players in New Orleans, which will ensure that they remain a terrific offense. It also doesn't hurt that Sean Payton is a terrific play-caller, and having big Jammal Brown at left tackle.
Chris Smith: In retrospect I don't believe it was a fluke at all last season. The big question going into last season was Drew Brees' health and he has more than answered that question. I do believe it is likely there will be some regression this season but that is expected after the fabulous season Brees and the passing attack enjoyed last year.
Maurile Tremblay: Yes, I don't think fluke was the right word. There's a lot of talent on that team, starting with Drew Brees, so their success last year wasn't a fluke. But what I meant was, their total passing yardage could drop off by a full 10% and still be in the top handful in the league. Even a 20% drop-off would likely keep them in the top third. So while their offensive success in general last year wasn't a fluke, the 4,626 passing yards was a bit extreme and, by its very extremeness, kind of fluky. If that makes sense.
Chris Smith: Yeah, I hear you and good point. Considering how few times a team has passed for 4,600 yards in the NFL, it could be considered a bit of a fluke to put up those statistics. Expect 4,000+ passing yards from the Saints this season but I'll be stunned if they get within 350 yards of the lofty numbers they posted a year ago. On the other hand, I expect Bush and McAllister to chew up yardage on the ground. Bush can only be better right out of the gate this season and McAllister will be as dependable as ever. Brees won't need to pass as much if the running game is clicking.
Jason Wood: I think it's difficult to expect Brees' to match last year's MVP-like season; but he seems in total command of that offense and should again be a solid bet for top-5 fantasy numbers. I see his downside at 3,700-3,800 yards and 22-24 TDs; and he could easily do much better than that as we witnessed in 2006. One issue, of course, will be the Saints' strength of schedule; which will be more challenging coming off their excellent season.
David Yudkin: I think the Saints will still be a contending team, but I suspect the offense will regress. Brees put up an insane amount of passing yardage, and history has not shown that many QBs have been able to duplicate that the following season. In my opinion, the post-hurricane factor, the return to the Super Dome, sneaking up on teams, etc., will help normalize the 2007 season. So I think both 2005 and 2006 seasons were a fluke.
Mark Wimer: In my opinion, Brees and company will shred opposing secondaries again this year. The team is deep at WR, has a solid TE in Eric Johnson (acquired from San Francisco during the offseason) and of course Reggie Bush, a RB and WR rolled into one. If teams commit to stop McAllister and Bush on the ground, Brees will slice, dice and julienne them in the passing game. There are just too many weapons to stop - seams and cracks will appear for Brees to exploit during most series.
Jeff Pasquino: Drew Brees was in a perfect situation last year -- stud receiving RB (Reggie Bush), WR from out of nowhere (Marques Colston) and a defense that was horrible. The Saints had to win by putting up big yardage and points, so that led to his ability to throw a ton and try and outscore the other teams. Honestly I don't think much has improved on defense, so that could still be the case, but the Saints have lost the element of surprise. Brees has nowhere to go but down (Passing offense was #1) and I expect something of a drop-off. I still think 4,000 yards passing is attainable, even likely, which is not a bad stat line at all.
Cecil Lammey: Sean Payton has these guys ready to dominate on the offensive side of the ball, and with that defense they will need to light up the scoreboard every week.
How will Antonio Gonzalez fit into the Colts' offense this year? Will he give the Colts a playmaker at WR3 like they had in 2004 with Brandon Stokley (although not, perhaps, to the same extent), or will it take him a year or two (as it did Reggie Wayne) before he is fully worked into Tom Moore's complicated passing attack?
Jeff Pasquino: Who? Seriously, if Dallas Clark stays healthy, Gonzalez won't get more than 25-30 catches all year. If there will be a solid #3 option in the passing game, expect it to be Clark. If Manning goes upwards of 40 TDs this season, I expect it to be 25+ to Harrison and Wayne, 5-6 to Addai and Clark each, and 3-5 for the rest. If you have ever seen Harrison and Payton talking on the sidelines during a game, you know just how much these guys are usually on the same page. Manning expects his receivers to know what he knows and be where he expects them to be. I don't think Gonzalez is anywhere close to that level. 400-500 yards and 4 TDs at best for him.
Anthony Borbely: Gonzalez has been drastically overvalued in drafts this year, and I don't see him, or anyone else matching Stokley's 2004 season. Other than that year, the Colts third WR has not had good enough numbers to be a viable fantasy starter. That, coupled with Gonzalez being a rookie, I see 45/550/5 being a respectable season for him. The only way he does better is if Harrison or Wayne get hurt.
Jason Wood: Anthony Gonzalez may someday be a very solid contributor, but he's arguably one of the most overrated fantasy players this season. When people think of the Colts WR3, their minds race toward the 2004 season, when Brandon Stokley went for 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs. But that year was clearly and away the anomaly. In nine years, Peyton Manning's WR3 has averaged 34 catches for 407 yards and 2 TDs; and has been the 80th best fantasy receiver on average. To ask a rookie to step into that offense and outperform a decades' worth of data is foolhardy.
Chris Smith: Gonzalez will have minimal impact for the Colts this season. Marvin Harrison, Wayne, the capable tight ends and Joseph Addai will see the majority of the passes. Gonzalez may emerge as a fantasy threat down the road but it's unlikely it will be this season unless injuries hit.
Cecil Lammey: Gonzales will take some time to mature into this offense. By the time he is truly ready he could be taking over for a retired Marvin Harrison.
Mark Wimer: I see Anthony Gonzalez as an emerging threat at WR for the Colts. I have pursued him in a lot of leagues because I think once he's had 4-6 games to immerse himself in the Colts' O and the pro game starts to "slow down" for him he'll become productive in fantasy terms (like Reggie Bush during 2006 - he was initially not impressive during his rookie campaign, but then became highly effective during the second half of his rookie season). I like Gonzalez to be a big factor during the second half of the season, and believe he may help my fantasy teams power into the fantasy playoffs, but he's going to take some time this year before he becomes a consistent enough threat to start.
Chase Stuart: I don't expect much out of Gonzalez this year -- when healthy, Dallas Clark will likely be the next option after Harrison, Wayne and Addai. Gonzalez might have a few games of decent production, but he should have minimal fantasy impact this season.
David Yudkin: The Colts #3 receiver has generally been a non-factor with the one notable exception being Brandon Stokley in Manning's record breaking TD season. I personally don't see the Colts having three top receivers this year, although longer term I'm sure the Colts would like Gonzalez to become the heir apparent to Marvin Harrison.
Will Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush be used the same way in 2007 as they were in 2006, or will Bush start to take on a bigger role as a ballcarrier on first and second downs?
Jason Wood: This is a huge question for fantasy owners obviously and based on their respective ADPs, it would seem most expect Bush to get more of the workload. Bush has been a consensus first-rounder in most drafts this year while McAllister is going in the third or fourth despite being a top-20 fantasy runner last year. In my estimation, I think Bush will see slightly more work as a runner, but will do more with each carry. Watching Bush play last year, he was jittery and indecisive in the first part of the year; but as the season wore on he massively improved by being more patient behind the offensive line. If both stay healthy, I expect McAllister to get more rushing attempts but Bush will have the better total yardage and could have more TDs this year.
Mark Wimer: I think the plan for the Saints at running back is "if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it". Look for more of the highly-productive two-headed monster we saw during the second half of 2006.
Chris Smith: I believe Bush will have more success running the ball this season which will lead to some extra work throughout the season. However a fresh Deuce McAllister is a scary thing and the unique talents both possess will be used in a similar fashion to the 2006 season. "If it isn't broke, don't fix it" is the perfect slogan when talking about the Saints rushing attack.
Chase Stuart: You'd have to figure that Bush will get more carries in 2007, or at least be given the chance to earn more carries. If he can improve on his pitiful 3.6 YPC average from last season, the Saints would love to get the ball into his hands more often. And considering lots of rookies have had poor rushing seasons but then great success later on -- including great receiving backs like Tiki Barber, Charlie Garner and James Wilder -- there are lots of reasons to expect a good year out of Bush. He's being drafted ahead of Deuce despite scoring 14 fewer fantasy points last year, but 2007 should be the year that Bush begins his run as the main man in New Orleans.
David Yudkin: Again using history as a barometer, the big receiving RBs normally followed two tracks: staying as a receiving back or becoming much more acclimated to the running game. I suspect Bush will fall into the latter category and take on more carries while losing some receptions. Count me in the crowd that feels Bush's hot late season finish was a streak and not the norm. He should be good, but I don't see him getting as many receptions as he did over that stretch. I've seen some people predicting 100 receptions for him this year. I'd guess closer to 60.
Jeff Pasquino: Yes, pretty much exactly the same. If it ain't broke..... Why would you change anything? Bush isn't a between the tackles kind of runner. He excels in space, so that's where he should be. Deuce takes the workload and heavy lifting inside. If defenses have to respect Bush in motion and in space, the misdirection will help Deuce gain his 5+ yards up the middle.
Anthony Borbely: Bush really improved over the second half of last season, and I believe the Saints will get him the ball a lot more this year, in both the running and passing game. Payton will find different ways to get him the ball. Deuce may lose some carries, but he should remain a force in the red zone. I see Bush having a chance to get 1000 yards rushing and receiving, and 100 receptions. He should get double digit TDs every year by accident. Deuce will have fewer touches, but his TDs should be at or near 10. Bush is just too talented and dangerous to not have the ball more.
Will the Colts' run defense be the sieve it was during the regular season last year, or the surprisingly strong unit that showed up during the playoffs?
Anthony Borbely: The Colts' run defense liability known as Cato June is now in Tampa. Freddie Keiaho was very impressive in preseason, and he looks much better in run defense than June was. That should help the defense immensely. But the key to the Colts being better is dependent on Bob Sanders being healthy. He is a difference maker in run defense. The interior defensive line is a concern, but if Sanders is healthy, combined with Keiaho taking over for June, the run defense should be a lot better and more consistent.
Jeff Pasquino: To echo Anthony, Freddy Keiaho has to step up here. The loss of Cato June to help out with Gary Brackett up the middle will hurt more in the passing attack, but Keiaho has to get some tackles as well. Bob Sanders is still a force, and he was the key difference in the postseason, so much hinges on him.
Jason Wood: The Colts run defense is in major trouble. Let's be honest, no one saw their playoff push coming but in retrospect there were two very important reasons for it. One, Bob Sanders was back in the lineup. Two, Booger McFarland started playing well after finally settling into the lineup after being traded to Indy in midseason. This problem this year is that McFarland has been put on IR, and Sanders can't stay healthy. Combine that with losses in the defensive backfield, I see the Colts defense as being horrendous this year, particularly against the rush.
Chase Stuart: There are a couple of schools of thought on the Colts run defense. Both starting corners from last season are gone, as is a Pro Bowl LB, Montae Raegor, Booger McFarland and Mike Doss. On the other hand, none of those players were very good, and we've seen some very positive things from the Colts defense in the pre-season. A healthy Bob Sanders will go a long way towards curing the historically bad run defense from last year, which has to get better almost by default. If Freddie Keiaho and Antoine Bethea can improve as second year players, that will go a long way towards improving the defense. The Colts flat out couldn't tackle last season, and the early returns so far are promising. No, Indianapolis won't be an above average defense against the run this year, but they should improve a bit on the awful performance from 2006.
Chris Smith: The answer lies somewhere in the middle but likely sliding towards the bottom third of the league. The reality is the Colts can be exploited up the middle and the club is built for speed and not for strength. I don't see the club allowing huge chunks of rushing yardage as they did a year ago but when it's all said and done, I believe teams will enjoy some success rushing against them.
Mark Wimer: The Colts are back to square one with their rush D, in my opinion. The injury to DT Anthony McFarland (a major run-clogger in the middle of the line) and the departure of talented LB Cato June (96 tackles and 45 assists last year for the Colts) to Tampa Bay will mean teams have a fairly easy time rushing the ball against Indianapolis again this year. One thing is for certain - the Saints will test this defensive front early and often during the season opener.
David Yudkin: While it's hard to envision the Colts run defense being worse, they still don't look to have made huge upgrades to solve the problem. I think they will do better than last year, but I also think that their pass defense is nothing to write home about either.
Will Eric Johnson become a potent weapon in the Saints' passing attack, or will he be the latest line in New Orleans tight ends who didn't live up to their preseason hype (like Zach Hilton last year, or Boo Williams before that)?
David Yudkin: Johnson was one of the few weapons the 49ers had in the season he hauled in 80+ passes. There are way more receiving (and rushing) options in New Orleans. I think he will be a decent TE2 and may even approach TE1 status, but I don't see him being an elite TE option. So whether he ranks 12th or 18th there may not be much scoring difference either way and he won't be a difference maker in normal sized, normal scoring leagues. He may have more value in PPR leagues if he gets a lot of short yardage dump off passes, but he'd be competing with Reggie Bush for those looks.
Chase Stuart: There aren't enough balls in the Saints offense for Johnson to do much, especially if either Meachem or Copper contribute much in 2007. You might want to add Cam Cleeland to the mix of flops at the position in New Orleans, but at least Johnson's ADP is pretty low (TE18). Considering Colston's success in the red zone last year, Johnson seems unlikely to reach paydirt a lot in 2007. Without a handful of TDs, he has little chance of being a valuable fantasy tight end.
Mark Wimer: I like Johnson to have a solid but not spectacular season. He's a skilled receiver, but there are a lot of guys wanting the ball on this offensive team. He won't be a disappointment, though.
Jason Wood: Eric Johnson is a reasonably talented tight end, but I don't see Drew Brees throwing to him abundantly. The Saints are going to spread the ball around and Reggie Bush is the main weapon underneath. HC Sean Payton likes to throw the ball downfield and Johnson really isn't equipped for that. He'll get targets, and should outperform last year's Saints TEs, but as a fantasy TE I don't see much to like about him.
Jeff Pasquino: The TE wasn't used effectively last year by the Saints, but if defenses key on Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, other options will have to step up. Johnson has a decent track record (posting 82 catches in 2004 in SF), but he lost all of 2005 with an injury and hasn't been the same player since. If he can stay healthy, he could be a Top 20 TE for fantasy purposes.
Chris Smith: If Johnson stays healthy, he'll put up good (not great) numbers. He is a very capable tight end who has had terrible luck with injuries.
Anthony Borbely: Eric Johnson will be a weapon for Brees, but there is so much talent in the passing game that I don't see him being a major factor. But he will at least keep defenses honest, and help open the field more than the TEs the Saints used last year. If defenses sleep on Johnson, he could have the odd big game, but I don't see him putting up consistent numbers because of the talent around him.
Is Joseph Addai going to get 25+ touches a game the way Edgerrin James did in his prime for the Colts?
Cecil Lammey: Addai is not Edgerrin James. His running style and size dictate that he's better off with around 20 touches a game. He has always been a RBBC back dating back to his days at LSU. However, in this game he should have a monster performance against a weak Saints D.
Chris Smith: Nobody can answer that in all honesty yet. He is capable of carrying the football 20+ times per game and is a talented player but he doesn't have a track record even in school of 25+ touches per game and we do not know yet if he'll hold up under that workload.
Jeff Pasquino: If not Addai, who else? Addai looks to be the feature back and Kenton Keith is barely recognized by anyone who knows the NFL on a daily basis. Addai has to be the #1 option by a large margin here. The only other choice is for Manning to throw 50-60 times a game, which, well, could be an option, but I don't think Tony Dungy is interested in that kind of play-calling.
David Yudkin: At this point Addai seemingly would have to get that many touches given the lack of RB on the Colts roster as constituted. They probably will have to add a free agent from somewhere, as last I checked they had Addai and Keith and no one else. Given that Addai split time in college and in IND last year, one has to wonder if he can hold up to that intense a workload given that he's never come close to seeing the ball that often.
Anthony Borbely: I am really interested to see how Addai is used this year. All offseason, Dungy said he likes to use two backs. I think Kenton Keith is really under the radar. After Dorsey was cut, I thought Keith would get a little more attention, but the masses seem to think the Colts will get another RB, or that the backup RB spot will rarely be used. I have a feeling Keith will do more than people think he will, possibly being used as the 1/3 part of the RB touches. He really impressed in preseason. I have concerns about Addai being able to carry the full load, stay healthy, and be as productive as he was last year. He will have more touches, but that could reduce his effectiveness. I think the Colts may hope he gets 25 touches per game, but I don't see him maintaining it over the course of the year.
Chase Stuart: Everyone expects about 50 receptions from Addai, so can he add in 350 carries? No one seems willing to project that number for Addai, because it's a huge increase from last year and so few RBs generally get that many carries. But the Colts have nothing else at the position right now, and they will run the ball. Indianapolis has averaged 410 rushes from the RB position the past four season. Seeing Addai get 85% of the RB carries may be a bit high, but he should have no problem seeing at least 80% of them. The Colts seem more than content in letting just one RB get the job done: Edgerrin James averaged 27.7 touches per game in 2005 before resting up the last two weeks of the season. I see no reason why Addai can't hit the 400 touch mark, particularly if he is effective.
Jason Wood: Joseph Addai had 1,000-yard season as a rookie and had to share the load with Dominic Rhodes. The Colts may have a fantastic passing attack but they've always stayed committed to the running game. Unless you honestly think Kenton Keith is someone worthy of being used in a committee, Addai is going to get 20+ touches game in, game out. He's one of the few young runners I could see breaking into the top 5 this year without much problem. All he needs to do is stay healthy, something he did as a rookie but struggled with at LSU.
Dolphins' Offense
It seems to me that the Dolphins offense this year is particularly hard to project. At QB, Trent Green has 4,000 potential, as he's hit that number in three out of the past four seasons, but he didn't play well in his injury-shortened season last year, and hasn't looked particularly good for the Dolphins in training camp or the preseason. At RB, Ronnie Brown was the second pick overall in the 2005 draft and has shown occasional flashes of brilliance, but there are some questions about his toughness and consistency. At WR, Chris Chambers has great deep speed and jumping ability and can make the spectacular catch, but he probably drops as many easy balls as anyone in the league and had a really disappointing fantasy season in 2006. The team's first-round draft pick this year, Ted Ginn, has premier big-play talent, but lacks refinement as a route-runner.
In short, I could see the Dolphins 2007 offense, under the tutelage of new head coach Cam Cameron, coming together to become one of the more explosive offenses in the league, or falling apart dismally -- or anywhere in between. What's your outlook on the Dolphins' offense this season?
Anthony Borbely: I think the Miami offense is a potential disaster waiting to happen. Trent Green hasn't been the same since his concussion, and I question how long he can last. Even if he doesn't get hurt, I think he will struggle this year. The offensive line is terrible, which doesn't bode well for the running game or passing game. Ronnie Brown seems to be in Cameron's doghouse, but I find it hard to believe Brown will not be the primary ball carrier. Chatman had a 74 yard TD run in preseason, and an 11 yard run on a statue of liberty play, but otherwise, I thought he looked slow. Booker didn't play much in preseason, which surprised me. Eventually, Brown should be the top RB, but he is not the most durable RB, and Miami better hope nothing happens to him, or else this team could be in big trouble. I certainly would not want Chatman as my starting RB.
Chambers had a poor 2006 season, and there were whispers that he was being shopped around. The passing game looks bad with him, so I can't imagine how bad they would be without him. Booker is decent, but he always seems to be hurt. Ginn is dangerous and needs to learn the pro game, but he is a difference maker and I think he will work his way into a major role. But it will take time.
I just see too many red flags with this offense to expect anything. I think they are in the bottom five in the league already, but if Green or Brown gets hurt, it could be even worse, bordering on a disaster.
Chris Smith: I hear what Anthony is saying and I agree that the most likely situation would have this offense struggling to come together this season. However there is one big reason I still feel somewhat optimistic in regards to the Dolphins situation in 2007 and that is new HC and offensive guru Cam Cameron. The Dolphins offense has lacked imagination over the past several years and Cameron is a mastermind on offense that likes to move players into situations in which they can shine. There are a lot of ifs that need to be answered in order for this to be a 'Cinderella' story in Miami this season but if anybody can get this unit to gel, I believe it is Cameron. There is no denying the talent at the skill positions for this team as the upside of Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn Jr., Chris Chambers and Derek Hagan is obvious.
Chase Stuart: Trent Green wasn't nearly as bad as he looked, although that's not saying much. He faced by far the hardest schedule in the league, whether judged by adjusted yards per attempt or fantasy points. He's a year younger than Favre and has a ton less mileage, although he's also a lot more injury prone. When he plays, though, I expect him to at least be better than the Dolphins revolving door at the position in '06.
Brown rushed for 100 yards in the last two weeks of 2006, but Cam Cameron doesn't seem to be a big supporter. I understand that Cameron's used to watching Tomlinson every day, but Brown should be the centerpiece of the offense. He's big, fast, strong and has good hands, making him as versatile as they come. He's not LT, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Cameron try and use him in a similar way. If Cameron doesn't bench him, that is.
Ginn and Chambers are certainly question marks, and it's hard to get excited about Marty Booker. I like David Martin as a sleeper, but he's not going to make this offense click. I'm with you Maurile -- if Chambers gets the most out of his talent, Green plays like he did in 2006, and Ronnie Brown plays like we all know he can, then the Dolphins offense will be very tough to stop. We know Cameron can run a high scoring offense.
As usual, it will come down to line play. Cameron goes from coaching perhaps the league's best offensive line to the worst one outside of Oakland. And until Miami fixes that, I'll be down on the Miami offense.
Jeff Pasquino: I agree with a lot of what Chris, Chase and Anthony have said here, especially about the line play, and I have a hard time seeing anything positive coming out of Miami this season.
Looking at who they have to face, I'm actually not that discouraged (aside from their Fantasy playoff schedule with Baltimore and New England, which is a nightmare).
Let's focus on the positives by talking briefly about the defense, as I think they are a Top 10 unit and will keep them in some games. Should Miami get 20-21 points they could steal some wins, but that's hard to figure out.
Ronnie Brown is in the doghouse, but I think that's more motivational than anything. I think he will rise to the occasion and put up pretty good numbers, but any slip will open the door for Jesse Chatman. Lorenzo Booker is now just a third down option at best, but if he starts to shine with a few plays early he could also get some work.
Trent Green has more downside than upside, which is a very negative statement right out of the blocks. His upside is QB15-20 I'd say, so the downside could really be down. Marty Booker and Chris Chambers, who never met a pass he couldn't drop, are in the bottom third of the league. I don't see 3,000 passing yards despite the need to throw, so in general I don't like anyone to excel here. All of this leads to a long season once again for Dolphins fans, who should hope for a youth movement (either Cleo Lemon or rookie John Beck) come December.
Mark Wimer: Looking at the situation in Miami, I tend to be on the side of the respondents who point out the flaws in this offense. Brown hasn't become the sort of running back who can take over a game at the pro level, thus we see Jesse Chatman challenging for playing time. Lorenzo Booker also figures to chip away at Brown's touches in third down situations.
The flaws of Chris Chambers have been well covered already. I'll just throw another stat in to the mix emphasizing why almost everyone is down on him entering 2007: Chambers saw 154 passes last year and only snagged 59/677/4. Almost 100 chances went by the boards for him - no wonder he was a fantasy disappointment. The jury is still out on Ted Ginn Jr. He is reportedly being fast-tracked into the offense, so I worry that he'll simply snipe 10-15 receptions away from both Chambers and Booker while failing to establish a true fantasy presence himself during his rookie season.
Green was once a fantasy stud, but given the surrounding cast in Miami and the line woes (the Dolphins tied for 11th-most sacks allowed last year, with 41 given up), I don't see him returning to elite fantasy QB numbers this year. Behind this OL, he may struggle to play a full slate of 16 games...
David Yudkin: I guess I will be one of the few people looking for decent numbers out of Miami this year. With Harrington, Culpepper, and Lemon last year at QB the Fins still ranked 4th in passing attempts, 6th in completions, and 12th in passing yardage. They struggled in passing TD (ranking 25th) but they were a bottom five team in overall scoring.
Over the past few seasons, the Dolphins have had a wide range of pathetic quarterbacks, several coaching changes, the Williams sideshow at RB, and generally nothing good happen. Even at 78 years old, Trent Green should still be viewed as an upgrade. His chances of having another 4,000 yard season are slim, but that doesn't mean he will bomb.
There are far worse WR tandems than Chambers and Booker, Martin may surprise a lot of people this year at TE, and Brown may finally show signs of being worth a Top 5 pick. I understand the OL is still below average, but I still think the Dolphins can at least put up average production overall as a unit. The defense may also be able to give the offense the ball with good field position or force some turnovers.
I think the real issue may be that against some tough teams the Dolphins could tank miserably in any given week and make up for it in another. So consistency could be a major concern. Overall, not the best, not the worst, likely somewhere in the middle.
Cecil Lammey: It doesn't look good for the Miami offense. It all starts up front, and I don't have confidence that the Dolphins offensive line can give Trent Green time, or give Ronnie Brown holes. Green does not look the same, and if he goes down to an injury then John Beck may start. I think Beck is terribly overrated; Cleo Lemon is a better QB. There is hope for the future with Ted Ginn and Lorenzo Booker, but expect 2007 to be a rough season for Miami.
Jason Wood: I think the onus is on Cameron and his staff to prove the offensive line can come together. But I must say I find it ironic that we're so willing to dismiss the Fins changes on the O-line yet most seem fine with the changes in Arizona and Houston. The Dolphins are starting two rookies on the line, we have no idea whether they're good players but Cameron happens to have arguably the league's best O-line coach, Hudson Houck, there to help fix things. I wouldn't be surprised, at all, if that line is at least middle-of-the-road. Were that the case, I see a lot of ways for this offense to surprise.
Am I predicting huge things from the Fins? No, but I think Ronnie Brown will prove to everyone (including his coach) that while he may not be much of a practice guy, he's an elite talent when the games matter. If Brown has the season I expect of him, it's going to make Trent Green's job a lot easier. While Green is 37 years old and played terribly in 2006 after that concussion, let's not forget that it was just one concussion. Green was medically cleared to play last year and will be fine this year in that regard. He and Cameron are long-time associates and the transition to a "new" offense is really a misnomer.
Some RBBC situations
Every year there are a number of teams who divvy up the RB workload among several players without having a true featured back. In fact, that trend may be on the upswing.
Jeff Pasquino: Indeed, the NFL is a copycat league, and with the Final Four teams last year all employing a two-back system, look for lots of teams to head that way, if they can. Even teams that were less successful saw added benefits to using two backs - Jacksonville leaps to mind - so it will be much more common going forward. It just makes sense, as now you can have two backs that are healthy and productive all year long. Should the seemingly inevitable injury hit your roster, you now have a second RB who can fill that feature back role.
Maurile Tremblay: With that said, let's look at some specific situations where there will either be a committee approach, or - if there is going to be a featured back - it's not clear right now who it will be. Let's start with Green Bay. Jeff, how do you see that situation playing out?
Jeff Pasquino: I have to think that this is Brandon Jackson's job to lose. Vernand Morency is a viable vet, but he lacks that explosive top end gear that you want (and need) to have in your starter. It's still a two-back league, but I have to think that the Pack is moving forward to the youth movement (except for You-Know-Who). Brandon Jackson, James Jones, Greg Jennings - all part of the Green Bay future. Seventy-five percent of the touches could be to Jackson.
Chris Smith: While I agree with Jeff that Brandon seems to be a better runner than Morency, I think Jackson's inability as a blocker may really hold him back this year. He simply does not have a clue what he is doing, makes the wrong reads, and could get Brett Favre killed if he is left in during passing situations. Vernand Morency is a stop-gap option who won't hurt the Packers if he is called upon, but also doesn't seem to have the elusiveness needed to have a great career at this level. So really, neither option is great, but my guess is that Morency will get the nod as the starting tailback if he is healthy, and he'll continue to get the carries for as long as Jackson struggles in pass protection.
Jason Wood: This is really a mess; as I think neither Morency nor Jackson is equipped to be the sole ball carrier. Jackson is probably the guy they would like to win the job, but he's struggled picking up blitzes and isn't a natural receiver. Morency is a talented one-cut back but he struggles to stay healthy and isn't an elite talent, either. I think the Packers hope that the combination of the two will give them a credible enough running attack to allow for Favre and his receiving corps to make plays. Color me fairly disinterested in either of these guys as fantasy prospects.
Mark Wimer: I see this one being largely affected by the health of these two RBs. Morency missed all of training camp due to a patellar tendon strain in his knee, which gives Jackson the big advantage right now. Jackson, for his part, suffered a concussion during practice last week, so he'll have to show that he's fully recovered from that. If he is, I think he'll get the majority of the touches to start the season because he's the one who got reps with the first team throughout training camp.
David Yudkin: I agree with Chris that neither option is ideal, and think it will be a running-back-by-committee all season as I don't see either guy being able to shoulder the load individually.
Cecil Lammey: This situation could be ugly. Vernand Morency is the more talented back, but has struggled to stay healthy. He is also older than one might think because he spent some time in the minor league system with the Rockies. If healthy, Morency will be the main back here, but how many points can we really expect from him?
What about in Atlanta, with Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood?
Jason Wood: Bobby Petrino was quick to declare Warrick Dunn the "starter" when Dunn returned from his preseason injury. I personally believe that was as much about paying respect to a veteran team leader as it was an indication of how the carries will be split. I think to start the season, both backs will be used liberally, but that Norwood will end the season as the main workhorse. Norwood is explosive, and I find it ironic that people say he can't be a full-time back when he's actually larger than Dunn, who's carved out quite a solid NFL career. This is really a bet that Norwood is younger and as talented (if not more), and history tells me that youth wins out when equivalent talent is at hand.
David Yudkin: I am leary of the Falcons' backs this year because the absence of Vick should make it a lot tougher to run. Teams had to plan how best to contain Vick and I don't see Harrington requiring the same game plan. Dunn should be the starter early in the year and Norwood should see more time as the year progresses.
Mark Wimer: The latest news is that Dunn is going to start for the Falcons, while Norwood remains in a supporting/change of pace role. Personally, I think that Norwood is going to take over the top job as the season goes along, but coach Petrino is showing respect to the veteran Dunn by naming him the opening day starter. Dunn is a very popular player in Atlanta with a very positive image, and the PR aspect of him headlining the offense in week 1 can't be overlooked in the wake of the Michael Vick fiaso.
Jeff Pasquino: Despite all the hype for Norwood, Atlanta needs some veteran stability. Warrick Dunn (who is the same age as Tiki Barber) is the listed starter. Dunn will get more touches than Norwood out of the gate, but Norwood is likely to bust a long run way more often than Dunn. Harrington also needs a decent receiver, and Dunn's hands haven't lost any skills either. I think Dunn could have 30-40 catches this season.
Cecil Lammey: Warrick Dunn has been solid for many years, but is the wear and tear finally catching up to him? Norwood is explosive, but he's built like a WR and he can't run inside with any effectiveness. Neither of these backs are a great option at the goal line, either.
Chris Smith: This is a very difficult situation to get a read on. First of all, veteran RB Warrick Dunn has been hurt all preseason and it may be that his age has caught up to him. The club was hopeful that Jerious Norwood would take the reins and become the workhorse running back but he didn't perform as hoped and the coaching staff has stated that Warrick Dunn will get the nod as the starting tailback. To make matters worse, as David mentioned, not having Michael Vick on the team will allow defenses to key more on stopping just the running backs, ignoring starting QB Joey Harrington who is no threat to run with the football. Both Dunn and Norwood will likely find less running room this season. Right now, I would split the carries at 60/40 for Norwood. Both running backs will get lots of work, effectively lowering the fantasy output for each. I would expect a little more production from the younger Norwood and his upside is significantly higher than Dunn, making him the better draft choice depending on when he's taken.
Jeff Haseley: I believe Jerious Norwood will ultimately take over as the Falcon's primary ball carrier this season. Dunn's strength has always been his quickness, but now he's starting to lose that. Without that, he doesn't have much left as a productive RB, in my opinion. Norwood is strong, quick, and has really improved his pass-catching ability. Bobby Petrino's offense uses more of a power back than a scat back and this benefits Norwood much more than Dunn. I would not be surprised to see Norwood really take over the RB role as early as week 4.
What about in Washington with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts?
Chris Smith: That's a tough one. Good question. Portis is the clear starter when healthy; but there are significant doubts about whether Portis will ever be 100% healthy again, and Ladell Betts ran like a man possessed when given the opportunity last year. If Portis is healthy, I see him getting around 17 carries per game with Betts adding another 9-10 carries. Together they'll have some success running the ball but Betts will eat into Portis' production, hurting his fantasy numbers.
Jeff Pasquino: Just last July, it was Portis' job and no one questioned it, but look what has happened since. Injuries to Portis opened the door for Betts to show what he could do, and he was a bona fide stud last December. Portis still has health concerns, so I think we're looking at a lot of work for Betts in September, with Washington heading to a closer 50-50 split in October and beyond.
David Yudkin: I personally see Portis as the clear starter when healthy and Bettis as the backup and maybe the third-down back. I would liken Betts to Kevin Faulk, but there may be many other people who see him filling a larger role. Basically, Portis should be the man if healthy.
Mark Wimer: Clinton Portis' knee tendonitis simply hasn't worked itself out, and while he's been sidelined Ladell Betts has handled a lot of reps with the first team offense. At best, I see this one as a 55-45 split with Portis getting slightly more work, but if that knee flares up this could easily become Betts' job to lose. We'll see how Portis' knee responds to the strain of full-speed, regular season action.
Jason Wood: This really comes down to Portis' health. For as impressive as Ladell Bets was in the final 8 games last year, let's not forget that Betts would've been an absolute bit player on that team if Portis stayed healthy. His play gives the coaches comfort that they're OK if Portis gets hurt again, but I'm still not sure I see Betts getting a ton of work if Portis can stay on the field. I think the days of Portis having 300+ carries may be over, but he should still be in line for 250+ carries, and Betts would be hard pressed to have more than 8-10 touches per game in that situation. Now, if Portis gets hurt again or his knee tendinitis is worse than we all believe, Betts becomes a yardage workhorse and solid fantasy starter.
Cecil Lammey: Ladell Betts could end up outproducing Clinton Portis. And not just because Portis is banged up. Portis is not the same as he used to be and by his own admission, this is probably his last year in Washington. Betts is more of a Joe Gibbs type of RB. Ladell can make his money between the tackles, and he's not a bad receiver out of the backfield either. With Jason Campbell at the helm expect the Redskins to run a lot. Both of these guys will see a significant amount of carries.
Jeff Haseley: In my opinion, this is Clinton Portis' offense. Betts came on last year due to Clinton's injury and exceeded expectations, especially in the passing game. But if Portis is healthy, I don't think we'll see Betts get more than 10 carries in a game. If, on the other hand, Portis hasn't fully recovered, then all Betts are off (pun intended) and we could see Ladell Betts with another fine season.
Maurile Tremblay: As the saying goes, it's impossible to predict injuries. But that's what trying to get a read on the Redskins' backfield situation comes down to, doesn't it? -- whether and for long Portis will be able to stay healthy.
Let's move on to Tennessee. What will happen with the Titans' backfield this year, with LenDale White, Chris Brown, and Chris Henry?
Cecil Lammey: LenDale White and Chris Brown give the Titans a good RB duo. Notice how I don't include Chris Henry. Henry is a superb athlete that just happens to play RB - he's not an instinctive runner. Chris Brown has a great skill set and is very explosive, but he can't stay healthy. White has great footwork, but he needs to get that fire back that he had at USC. I expect White to lead this team in rushing.
Chris Smith: Like Cecil, I'd scratch Henry from that list, as I think he will be a non-factor. That leaves the enigmatic LenDale White, who has excellent potential, and Chris Brown, who is explosive but fragile. A few weeks ago I would have said to pencil Chris Brown in for 15-20 carries and the bulk of the work for the Titans, but White has finally begun running the ball with conviction and is in pretty decent shape. I believe the Titans would love for White to emerge as the workhorse running back and will give him every opportunity to become the man. Both players will get significant touches but I have White with 16+ carries per game and Brown averaging 7-8 carries per game with some receptions thrown in. Of the two players, White is the player with greater upside.
Jeff Haseley: I think the Titans really want LenDale White to emerge. They know what he's capable of. They know he can pound the ball. But while White has better strength and power, Chris Brown has better speed and also has more experience in the Titans' offense. I see Chris Brown really making a statement in the first couple weeks of the season -- enough so that he'll get the nod as the starting RB. He's a talented back and this is a contract year for him. Put me on record of saying that Chris Brown will be the Tennessee RB to have this year.
Jeff Pasquino: This has a train wreck written all over it. The best runner on the team is Vince Young, not White or Brown. I expect White and Brown to split carries pretty equally, but neither will be that productive. Henry is an afterthought until Brown gets hurt, which could be any minute.
David Yudkin: I agree with Jeff that Vince Young is the team's best runner. As far as the running backs go, I would guess they will try to get White involved with Brown as insurance, but if White struggles Brown may get a fair amount of the workload. I don't see Henry doing a whole lot.
Jason Wood: This situation seems to be settling down. A month ago, I might have seen this as a three-headed monster and a situation fantasy owners needed to avoid. However, I'm now pretty confident that LenDale White is going to take command of this situation. White showed up to camp in shape (well, at least below the team's weight limit for him), and while squarely in the coaches' doghouse early this summer, pulled himself out and will get the start in Week One. You don't want to overvalue preseason game stats, but seeing White run with the first team, I felt he was far and away the most talented back on the Titans roster. Since he's getting the Week One start, I think he controls his own destiny. If he runs hard, gets results, does the little things that we layman might miss on TV, I expect White to go over 1,000 yards and surprise a ton of people.
In Jacksonville, Maurice Jones-Drew exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations last year. Is he going to see his carries increase this year at Fred Taylor's expense?
Jeff Haseley: I think he will. As much as I want to see Fred Taylor be successful, I just think that Jones-Drew is a special type of back who has more to offer. I don't think his breakout rookie season was a fluke, and I think we'll see more of the same in 2007. I think both are very good pass-catching backs, but Jones-Drew has that extra little something that puts him ahead of Taylor. I would not be surprised to see Jack Del Rio make Jones-Drew the starting RB by week 5, maybe sooner.
Chris Smith: I actually don't think it will be much different from last year. Jones-Drew may earn a few more carries per game, but Taylor will still be a huge part of the offense.
Jeff Pasquino: This is one of the best duos around. MJD helps Fred Taylor, believe it or not. Head coach Jack Del Rio has figured out how to keep "Fragile Freddy" from breaking down each season, and the answer is a shared workload. Jones-Drew is a tough guy to tackle and he is just a huge playmaker, so they have to get him his touches. The Jags could run the ball 40 times a week, which will give both backs plenty of touches. I think they will both be top 25 fantasy RBs.
David Yudkin: I'll go against the grain here a bit: Taylor is still the starter with Jones-Drew the back up. Taylor signed a pricey contract extension ($5 million per year) and will see the majority of the carries. If I recall correctly, Jones-Drew averaged only 8 or 9 carries a game when Taylor was healthy last year. Drew may see 10-12 caries a game and more receptions than Taylor, but I don't see the onslaught of touchdowns from MJD again this year.
Jason Wood: If Fred Taylor retired, Jones-Drew would've been ranked 5th or 6th overall in my projections this year. Looking over the list of RBs who have at least one season of 5+ yards per rush, 100+ carries and 10+ TDs; you're looking at a laundry list of Hall of Fame backs. Jones-Drew's rookie season was no fluke. This kid has explosive, elite talent. That said, the Jaguars offensive identity is going to involve running the ball, a lot. So I think Jones-Drew needs to wait a year before moving permanently into the fantasy top 10. I hope you drafted MJD in the 2nd round this year, because I suspect that may be the last season you can possibly do that.
The Carolina backfield is difficult to figure out going into every season, and this season is no different. What's going to happen there?
Jeff Pasquino: Head coach John Fox really likes to feature one back, and it seems that DeShaun Foster is that guy for now. DeAngelo Williams will get touches, but it will be only about a third of the carries for now. Foster doesn't have a great medical history, so I expect Williams to be featured more later in the year, but it is tough to start Williams fantasy-wise until he starts to get consistent touches. He seems to be a bye week filler at best until things change, which is not what many who drafted him want to hear right now.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jeff. Foster has retained the top job, and Williams is the change of pace back right now. How much work Foster claims is up to him. If he can stay healthy and productive, I see no reason why he wouldn't get the lions' share of carries here (say, a 70-30 split with Foster handling the main load). But the injury bug has always dogged Foster (albeit with typically minor injuries), so it remains to be seen if his body can take the pounding of being a featured back. If Foster falters, Williams will quickly step in and claim more playing time.
David Yudkin: As Jeff mentioned, Fox has never really implemented a RBBC approach in the past. He's stuck to giving one guy a huge workload and others a handful of looks pretty much the entire time he's been in Carolina. I look for Foster to be the starter as long as he's healthy and Williams to be the backup and see action when Foster can't go (much like last year). I don't see many games where they split the workload evenly. That being said, the Panthers have not produced great rushing totals the past few seasons and I doubt that will change this year. I'd rather have Foster, but I don't see a ton of fantasy production this year from the Carolina running backs.
Jason Wood: In an expert draft in June I took DeAngelo Williams in the 4th round. OOPS! I really thought that Williams would differentiate himself materially over the preseason and finally put DeShaun Foster to pasture. But, as we all know now, it didn't happen. Foster was at least as effective, if not more so, during camp and is the Week One starter. I still think, somehow, Williams will end the season with better numbers; but for now neither are compelling starts.
Chris Smith: I really thought Williams would improve and become the featured running back in Carolina this year but his preseason was forgettable and DeShaun Foster is right back in the swing of things. Foster is actually a very good player who unfortunately hasn't been able to stay healthy on a consistent basis. Foster clearly enjoyed the better preseason and he'll likely get the lion's share of the touches to start the season. I would put the carries around 70/30 in favor of Foster.
What about in Detroit?
Jason Wood: This is pretty simple stuff. If Kevin Jones is healthy, he's the guy. If he's not, Tatum Bell is the yardage guy while T.J. Duckett likely gets the short-yardage and TD plunges. Bell has been going way too high in drafts; I think people underestimate his shortcomings. He has fumbling issues, isn't durable, and isn't a very fluid receiver; not a recipe to run wild even if he's the nominal Week One starter.
Jeff Haseley: Tatum Bell is just not in the same league as Jones. He had some good games with Denver, where all RBs have value if they get playing time. But how many so-so RBs leave Denver and then prosper? Mike Anderson? No. Olandis Gary? No. Quentin Griffin? No. Reuben Droughns? He had one good year with Cleveland and not much else. I think the same will be true for Tatum Bell. Kevin Jones is exactly the type of back that Mike Martz wants in his system. As long as he is healthy, it's his job. When Jones comes back healthy, he could be the one player that turns your lineup into a championship caliber team during the fantasy playoffs.
Chris Smith: The Lions were really building up Tatum Bell earlier in the summer, but now seem to be impatiently waiting for Kevin Jones to return to the field, which kind of tells you in which direction they are leaning. I believe Bell will put up decent numbers until Jones is ready to play, and then the split will likely be 70/30 in favor of Jones.
Jeff Pasquino: RBs in Detroit with Mike Martz sound like fantasy gold, but this is another health situation that can drive you nuts. Bell is not being handed the job while Jones gets healthy - TJ Duckett could share time with him - so I am not a big fan of using Bell. Jones seems to be slipping and could be an explosive guy in the second half of the season. I'd want him much more than Bell.
Mark Wimer: Tatum Bell is keeping Kevin Jones' roster spot warm for him. As soon as Jones can cut and accelerate off his sore foot, Jones will step into the lineup and Bell will become the backup. Jones was kept off the PUP because the coaches believe he is just a few weeks out from rejoining the starting lineup. So, for a few weeks Bell will get the opportunity to showcase his abilities, but it is apparent the coaches believe that, when healthy, Jones gives them the best chance to win games.
David Yudkin: This situation got a lot more complicated when the Lions kept Jones on the active roster (instead of putting him on the PUP list) and anointed T.J. Duckett as a possible goal line threat. Given that Martz-led offenses have not historically provided a lot of carries to RBs over the years, this one may not be a pretty situation, fantasy-wise. I think Bell may put up so-so RB2 numbers to start the year and may be a decent flex option, but I'm not seeing this as a fantasy goldmine. Those looking for Marshall Faulk to emerge from this mess will be disappointed.
Moving on to the Giants - is Reuben Droughns going to be a threat to steal many carries from Brandon Jacobs?
Chris Smith: I don't think so. Jacobs has been anointed the starter and will get the majority of the carries unless he is ineffective or injured. He will have every opportunity to carry the ball 20+ times per game.
Jeff Pasquino: Right. This one seems pretty clear: Jacobs is the #1 guy for the Giants by a longshot. Reuben Droughns will only be used sparingly, as they really want Jacobs to step up and fill Tiki Barber's role from last year. Now I'm not saying he is the next Tiki, but 75-80% of Tiki is still pretty good. Jacobs will be getting 20-25 touches each week until further notice. Droughns could be the third down back since he's a good receiver and blocker on blitz pickups.
Jason Wood: This isn't an RBBC and I don't know why people think otherwise. Jacobs will get 20+ touches until he can't handle them or fails at the job. But the coaches want and expect Jacobs to be their bell cow. Meanwhile Droughns was unimpressive in camp and actually was running behind Derrick Ward at tailback. With the late preseason injury to Robert Douglas, Droughns has been moved to fullback. This is very reminiscent of the Mike Anderson situation in Baltimore last year. Droughns is a long way away from being a fantasy contributor.
OK, if that one was too easy, how about Dallas?
Jeff Pasquino: I've been a big fan Marion Barber's performance over the past couple years. Barber has been more efficient than Julius Jones for two years straight, yet for some reason they keep wanting to give the ball back to Jones. The bottom line is that nothing has really changed from last year. I expect both backs to be used exactly the same way they were in 2006, which makes Barber more valuable if he does indeed score 10+ touchdowns again.
David Yudkin: I also see this as similar to last year, except I think both backs will get more receptions, and Barber won't get quite as many touchdowns.
Chris Smith: I agree that the Cowboys will probably keep the same rotation they had last year. But if one running back does eventually earn the featured role, I think it will be Barber. He has good size, great vision, and a nose for the end zone, and has more upside potential than Jones.
Jason Wood: While the stats and your eyes should tell you that Marion Barber is the better back in every facet of the game, you can't ignore the fact Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett have preached balance at every turn. They both have said all preseason that the way Jones and Barber were utilized in 2006 worked so well, there was no reason to change things. If they hold true to that, Jones will get two to two-and-a-half times the carries, and Barber will get the carries that matter most to fantasy owners. I think, if their carries stay the same, Barber will be hard pressed to match last year because of the 16 TDs he put up. But somehow, someway I think the cream rises to the top and Barber will be the main runner at some point down the road. It may be 2008, but it's going to happen.
Jeff Haseley: There is no doubt in my mind that Barber is the better back and that if given the role full-time, he'd be one of the better backs in the NFL. Yes, he's that good. He has a nose for the next yard down field just like he has a nose for the end zone. He has above average pass-catching skills, despite not having a lot of receptions in his brief career so far. I agree with Chris that the Cowboys will probably stay with their committee approach, but if one guy ends up taking over, it will be Barber.
Lastly, what about the Raiders? Will Dominic Rhodes be a threat to LaMont Jordan's production?
Chris Smith: Jordan ran well during the preseason. I believe by the time Rhodes returns from his suspension, Jordan should be firmly planted in as the starter, relegating Rhodes to back up work.
Jeff Pasquino: Let the Comeback Player of the Year talk start for Lamont Jordan. This is more than he ever could have asked for - the starting role handed to him, improvements in the passing game (they hope), more throws his way, and even better - zone blocking on the offensive line. I expect Jordan to be a huge value play this season. He should show why he was brought to Oakland in the first place in September with no competition for carries. Jordan's performances in the first four weeks should be good enough to hold off Rhodes and make Jordan a feature back once again.
Jason Wood: This is another situation I think changed dramatically over the last month or two. I worried that Jordan wouldn't be healthy and Oakland would use a real committee approach with as many as four backs involved. But Jordan alleviated my doubts, and seems to be in line to be the Raiders offensive focal point in my estimation. We still have no idea how the offensive line will block or what the passing offense will look like, but I think Jordan will catch a ton of dump off passes and will get enough yardage to be a solid RB3 this year. Rhodes is a pedestrian runner who benefited from his situation in Indy. I suspect by the time he comes back for the four-game suspension, Jordan will have cleared any and all doubts that he's the main man in that backfield.
Mark Wimer: LaMont Jordan has the first quarter of the regular season to stake his claim to the top job in Oakland. If he is productive and healthy when Rhodes returns from suspension, then Rhodes will be relegated to backup duties. But if Jordan isn't impressive early in the year, it would be no surprise to see Rhodes challenge for the top job in Oakland.
David Yudkin: A lot will depend on whether the Raiders' offense shows signs of life this year. Jordan will get first crack at this with Rhodes under suspension. He has a couple of decent matchups the first month and if he performs well he could make a case for staying as the #1 back. If not, this will turn into a RBBC on a team that may not have a lot of fantasy production to go around. Even if Jordan were to be the main back, I don't see a repeat of 2005 in his future. I'd tell Jeff to put that Comeback Player of the Year talk on hold.
Second-Year QBs
Four rookie quarterbacks from last year began the season as backups and finished as starters -- Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, and Tarvaris Jackson. Young, Leinart, and Cutler played surprisingly well for rookies last year. What's your prognosis this group of young QBs this year? Are any of them ready to take the next step and join the league's upper tier of quarterbacks (fantasy-wise or NFL-wise)? Conversely, do you see any of them struggling this season?
Chase Stuart: For those that read a lot into rookie stats, Cutler and Leinart had pretty misleading rookie seasons. Cutler had by far the easiest schedule in the league last season, which inflated his FP/G numbers by over a full point per game. While he was technically a top ten QB when he played, he ranks 24th among QBs from last year after accounting for SOS and partial games.
Leinart? He ranks 15h after adjusting for SOS and partial games, and vaults into the top 11 after removing Vick, Garcia, Bledsoe and Seneca Wallace. The point? Leinart was a pretty darn good fantasy QB when he played last year, posting 20 point weeks in four of his ten complete games. If you assume that Leinart will improved this year, the only worry would stem from a change in the offense. Considering how weak the Cardinals' D should be, I have my doubts that Ken Whisenhunt will be able to run early and often in Arizona this year.
Vince Young has an ADP of QB10, an expert rank of QB8 and is projected by Dodds at QB6. He ranked 11th last year, and moves up to 8th after removing Vick, Garcia and Wallace. I've been a huge Vince Young fan for awhile now, and think he'll soon be an excellent NFL and fantasy QB. While his weapons last year weren't very good, I'm still hesitant about ranking him higher than 8th based on his poor supporting cast. Of the four QBs, Young is most likely to join the fantasy elite this year because of his rushing ability. An extra 600 rushing yards for Young is equal to 1200 passing yards, and it's going to be difficult for Leinart or Cutler to match that.
Jackson is and should be an afterthought for most drafters. The only starting QB I'd draft him ahead of is Charlie Frye.
Maurile Tremblay: Young's rushing ability makes a huge difference in most fantasy scoring systems. A quarterback doesn't have to be a great passer in order to be a great fantasy player -- as evidenced by Michael Vick's top five finish last year when he completed only 52.6% of his passes.
Vince Young doesn't have a great surrounding cast, and while his lack of targets will hurt his passing numbers, they may actually help his rushing numbers if he tucks the ball and runs when nobody is open.
Chase Stuart: Vick rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, which is way more than Young will get this year. I think we both see him rushing for about 500-600 yards this year, which means he'll need to get in the end zone with either his arms or his legs. I'm just not sure the Titans offense will score all that much in '07.
Chris Smith: Of the group mentioned, it is pretty obvious that Vince Young is the best fantasy option. Yes I know I'm not stepping out on a limb there but it is the truth, plain and simple. Young may struggle in the passing game at times and his skilled position weapons are not exceptional at this point but Young has the rare ability to make his teammates better around him just with his talents and attitude. Yes, he's that good and he should slot into the top-six this season which isn't elite but pretty darn close.
Jay Cutler to me is overrated this season. As Chase mentioned already, Cutler had a very easy schedule when he entered in as starter last season and took advantage of it. He played well and his future is rosy but many folks are ranking him inside the top-fourteen which is too high in my opinion. Cutler will struggle at times this season and the better defenses out there will expose some of his inexperience. I think he has top-ten potential in a year or two but I would certainly look elsewhere for my starting QB this year.
Matt Leinart is a very talented player who does have elite ability. He is better than Cutler in my opinion but similar to what I said about Cutler, Leinart may struggle at times this season while he learns his craft on the fly. He does have an exceptional receiving core to get the ball to and for that reason, I believe he'll finish significantly higher than Cutler this year (I have him 12th). However anybody ranking him inside the top-eight is likely to be disappointed this year.
Finally Tarvaris Jackson is an exceptional athlete who has a long way to go as a quarterback at this level. He likely isn't an elite player down the road and he certainly isn't now. He does have potential for Dynasty owners if he can continue to grow as a player but it's unlikely he'll pass for more than 2,800 yards in 2007.
Jeff Pasquino: I'd rank them Leinart, Young, Cutler then Tarvaris, with a big chasm between Cutler and Tarvaris.
How close Young is to Leinart really depends on the scoring format, because if you get 6 points for a rushing TD and 4 for a passing TD, Vince Young will be boosted by his legs (just like Vick was in prior years).
Leinart has everything you could want for a fantasy QB - two stud WRs (Fitzgerald, Boldin) and a good receiving back in Edgerrin James. His TE is still a big question, but you really don't even need that. Bryant Johnson is also a very good WR3 and also can start if one of his primary targets gets nicked. I think he's my best choice to be joining that upper crust this season.
I've never been a big fan of Vince Young, as I see him in the same vein as Vick. Great athlete, excellent runner and playmaker, but no help. When Bo Scaife is your best option, you have issues as a QB. Young also doesn't have a dependable rusher behind him to take a load off his shoulders, so it is "Young or nothing" for Tennessee. I can't see him producing at an elite level without some help. and there are few candidates wearing Titans uniforms for that role.
Cutler is likely to be a good NFL QB this season, but he's going to feel like more of a game manager than an elite quarterback. Javon Walker will get his, as good #1 WRs always do, but Denver has Travis Henry to rely on and move the chains. HC Mike Shanahan loves to run the ball, and if the defense holds up (I do have questions about the front seven) Denver may not need to score more than 20 each week to win their fair share. Cutler won't be viewed as an upper tier QB in fantasy because he won't be throwing 30+ times a game or getting 2-3 TDs most weeks, but he could be a solid winning NFL QB. Neither statement about him in 2007 screams "upper tier" to me.
Tarvaris Jackson is way, way, way down this list, as he has issues with viable receivers. He does have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to help, as both can catch screens all day long (which could be called a lot this season), and Jackson can run pretty well. He also may rely on his new big TE, Vishante Shiancoe (formerly of the Giants) as a 5-10 yard option over the middle. Jackson could put up decent fantasy backup QB numbers, but in no way will he perceived as elite this season.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jeff that Leinart is the best fantasy option out of the above list this year, pegging him at #12 on my QB board - but Young and Cutler are hot on his heels at #14 and #15. Jackson is way back in the pack at #31, well out of consideration for a starting rotation in a typical 12 team fantasy league.
The surrounding talent in Arizona is clearly superior to the supporting cast in Tennessee and Denver, in my opinion. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson are a terrific 1-2-3 combo at WR, and Edgerrin James is pretty adept at snagging dump off passes. Young has a dearth of proven WRs in Tennessee (as many have pointed out already, his rushing abilities help him overcome this liability to some extent). Cutler has Javon Walker to lean on in Denver, but due to Tony Scheffler's and Rod Smith's injury woes this past off- and preseason there is some question marks at WR and TE entering 2007. Daniel Graham helps out at TE to some extent, but he's new to the team and there are bound to be some growing pains as he gets fully integrated into the offense.
Jackson appears to need a road map to find his receivers.
David Yudkin: Young probably has the most fantasy value based on his rushing stats, but I have concerns about his receiving options. None of them really wow me and I think he will struggle putting up even average passing totals. I also don't think he will score as many rushing TD as last year and teams will make a more concerted effort to scheme how to contain him.
Jackson is in a similar situation (no proven receivers) but has the other issue of having two decent RB options and a strong blocking OL to contend with. Jackson may not see much fantasy production handing the ball off all game. Let's just say this, if I had to start Jackson on one of my fantasy teams my season would be in jeopardy.
Cutler also has some question marks at wide receiver. He has the luxury of Walker but there are not a lot of proven and/or healthy guys beyond that. I don't see Cutler putting up big numbers this year, but he may be a decent QB2 in most leagues.
Leinart is in a system that is build around pounding the football. We'll have to see how long the Cards stick to running the ball if they still can't get anywhere. I don't see Arizona throwing anywhere near as much as they did with Green and Warner a few years ago. Like his predecessors, I suspect Leinart may have some big yardage games and may struggle to get in the end zone and may struggle to produce consistent fantasy numbers. If you can live with 320/1/2 one week and 150/1/0 the next, then I guess Leinart may be your man.
Cecil Lammey: Vince Young could redefine the QB position when all is said and done. However, this season expect Vince to struggle. The Titans have no viable receiving weapons outside of Bo Scaife.
Matt Leinart could put up some nice numbers in his 2nd season. I don't expect a sophomore slump, but I don't expect a spectacular year either.
Jay Cutler has the most potential out of these QBs this year. He is a gunslinger and has ultimate confidence in his arm. With defenses keyed to stop Travis Henry it means Cutler will be able to spread it around to all of his weapons. His weapons need to stay healthy though.
Tarvaris Jackson will continue to struggle for the Vikings. He is still too raw to be starting in the NFL.
Jason Wood: From a fantasy perspective, Vince Young is already a major player. His rushing totals go a long way toward making his mediocre passing totals irrelevant. While I can't say I'm as confident as some of the other FBG staff that Young will make a major step forward as a passer this year, given the dearth of weapons at his disposal, I have a hard time seeing him fall short of 600 yards rushing and 6-8 TDs. Even if you only figure him for 500 yards rushing and 6 rushing TDs, that's the equivalent of 1,250 passing yards and 9 passing TDs using FBG scoring.
Among the other three, I'm fairly optimistic about both Cutler and Leinart, and see them both as top-tier fantasy QB2s (just outside the top-12). For Leinart, it's all about how quickly Russ Grimm and Ken Whisenhunt can get that offensive line in shape. Leinart has an enviable cadre of weapons, a great stadium and favorable weather conditions, and has a pedigree that points toward success. Cutler has a less proven collegiate pedigree obviously, but the fact Mike Shanahan was willing to put him into the lineup in the midst of the Broncos playoff push was notable. The Broncos offense appears to always be solid, and the addition of Travis Henry is going to create plenty of opportunity for Cutler to throw off play-action. If I had to choose between the two, I give the slight edge to Leinart because his WR corps is better; with the exception of the TE position.
Tarvaris Jackson is going to struggle; let's be honest. When you can't figure out which Vikes WR is going to catch passes, it's an indication that he really has no proven weapons. Visanthe Shiancoe was a major league free agent reach at tight end, and this is a team that seems destined to win or lose on the running back combo of AD and Taylor; combined with the play of their opportunistic defense.
What to look for in week one?
For months we've spent a lot of our time speculating on what might happen; but this week we finally start having a chance to analyze and react to what is happening. What situations are you most interested in seeing play out this week?
Jeff Haseley: There are two categories of WRs I'll be especially looking forward to seeing in week one: (a) the elder statesmen who may or may not be washed up, and (b) the young guns who may or may not take a big step forward this year. In the first category, I think injuries and wear and tear have taken a toll on Terry Glenn, and he could give way to Patrick Crayton this year. Likewise, I think Derrick Mason is on the decline and may be overshadowed by Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams. I'm more optimistic about Isaac Bruce and Eric Moulds, however. Both are in good situations and appear to have something left in the tank. We'll have to wait to see how things play out, though, as it's often hard to predict exactly when an older WR will fall off the cliff. The younger guys I'll particularly be watching include Jacoby Jones, James Jones, and Patrick Crayton, all of whom are very talented and could surprise a lot of people this season. I'm less optimistic about Malcom Floyd and Dwayne Jarrett, however, as I don't think they'll get enough targets to make an impact. But anything can happen, and I'm eager to see what actually does happen - in all of those situations.
Chris Smith: I agree with Jeff about James Jones and Jacoby Jones. Those two players were excellent in preseason, but can they continue the excellent play when defenses begin playing for real?
Jeff Pasquino: The first issue that comes to mind for me is: Are the new feature backs ready for that role? I think Addai and Maroney (if healthy) are ready, but I am watching intently on Cedric Benson. I think Adrian Peterson (and Garrett Wolfe) are just chomping at the bit to get some touches. Chicago could be the "new Denver" where a decent back becomes a very good one behind that line.
Chase Stuart: I've been hyping Steve Smith for awhile, and think he's in his own tier at the position. Facing St. Louis is a very friendly matchup, and he put up 90/1 against them last season. Does Delhomme continue to lock in on Smith? While it's obvious that Smith is going to be good, I think he's got the potential for another 1600 yard season.
Chris Smith: One thing I'll be looking for is whether the Chargers' change of head coach will help or hinder their regular season play. Norv Turner has not impressed as a head coach at the NFL level but finally has the talent on the roster to make us forget the bad days of Washington and Oakland. Can the Chargers continue to dominate the opposition or will they come back down to earth somewhat? They'll get a difficult test right away as they open with the Chicago Bears. How they respond will be revealing.
Maurile Tremblay: I'll be watching the Raiders' passing offense. For most of the summer I've been relatively alone in ranking Ronald Curry as the clear WR1 for the Raiders over Jerry Porter, and I'm eager to see that opinion confirmed by reality. In my view, Curry runs better routes, has better hands, and shows better awareness on the field.
Chase Stuart: Maurice-Jones Drew was incredible last year, and Clinton Portis and Franco Harris are the only other rookies in league history to average over 5.5 yards per carry and rush for 10 or more TDs. MJD averaged two full yards per carry more than Reggie Bush last year. No one is truly a 5.67 yards per carry runner, but can MJD come close to doing it again? If he gets 250 touches this year, he's got a shot to finish in the top five.
Maurile Tremblay: Another thing I will be looking for in week one is the performance of the Raiders' offensive line. That whole offense was just so horrible last year -- and it all started up front. They were unable to protect the QB or to open any holes for the RBs. If the offensive line can improve significantly, I think Daunte Culpepper, Lamont Jordan, and Ron Curry are all very undervalued right now. I do think Robert Gallery will be a much better fit at guard than he was at tackle, and along with Jake Grove could form a decent base in the interior. The Raiders brought in three veteran offensive linemen -- Jake Newberry, Cooper Carlisle, and Cornell Green -- and drafted rookie OT Mario Henderson, all of whom could contribute this year. (Carlisle and Green are starting at RG and RT.) On paper, it looks like an improved group, and I'm eager to see how they perform on the field.
Chris Smith: The offensive line has been much improved throughout preseason albeit against mostly vanilla defensive fronts. I agree with you that it bears watching. It sounds like McCown is getting the nod at quarterback in game one but I'm more interested in Jordan, Curry and my deep sleeper Mike Williams who I am very interested in watching to see if he has his act together.
Mark Wimer: Yes, I'm interested to see if LaMont Jordan can shake off last years' malaise (and to see if the Raiders in general can do so) and if Jordan can stake a lasting claim to the starting RB position this year.
Chase Stuart: I've never been a fan of Eli Manning or Alex Smith, but both enter the defining year of their young careers. Manning has had his leadership challenged in the off-season, and he's finally being held accountable for his poor play. How will he respond to the criticism? Alex Smith just turned 23 years old. He made strides last year, but still was one of the weaker QBs in the league. Will Darrell Jackson help turn him into one of the top QBs in the NFC this year? He's got a very easy schedule, so I wouldn't count him out.
Jeff Haseley: Will Donovan McNabb's health not be a concern or will he struggle? I think he'll struggle at times, but he'll also have some big games. Without Donte Stallworth, I think his deep balls will take a hit, which will mean less yards as a whole. I don't think Philadelphia will be the #4 ranked offense in 2007 like they were last year.
Mark Wimer: I'm very interested to see Clinton Portis go full speed this week. The coaching staff has been saying for months that he'll be ready to go week 1, but now we'll get to watch and judge for ourselves - in my opinion, he's extremely dicey this year, but I could be mistaken.
Jeff Haseley: Will this season be a rebirth for Ahman Green and a jump start to the Texans new offense? I think Ahman Green will be a nice addition to the Texans offense. He'll have plenty of carries and his pass-catching abilities won't be ignored. I see an increase from the whole offensive unit, which will surely benefit Ahman Green.
Chase Stuart: Good one, Jeff. I really like Ahman Green this year. He's got fewer than 2000 career carries and a 4.5 yards per carry average for his career. If Ron Dayne stinks -- a pretty likely assumption -- Green has a chance to really surprise. How many carries does Dayne get against KC? If it's only two or three, then I think Green is in line for a nice year. He has a chance to get 300 carries, and he'll easily top 1200 yards if he does so.
Jeff Pasquino: I'm also looking to see who the primary targets are in several passing games. Jacksonville would be nice to know, but I think that's more anecdotal (as I doubt I'd ever want to start a Jag WR for a fantasy team). Kansas City will be very interesting - does Eddie Kennison or Sammie Parker still "have it"? Will we see some Dwayne Bowe? Will Tony Gonzalez have to block more, or will he be the feature target?
Maurile Tremblay: Speaking of the Chiefs, I'm interested in watching their rushing attack with Larry Johnson. Johnson rushed for over 1,750 yards in each of the last two seasons -- joining only Terrell Davis and Eric Dickerson as the only players to have back-to-back 1,750-yard seasons. This week he goes up against the Texans, and the last time he faced them he rushed for over 200 yards. If he can ride that momentum, he could have a huge week one; but the Chiefs' offensive line is suspect, and Herm Edwards indicated that he'll put a sort of "pitch count" on Johnson to manage his workload. I want to see how the whole thing plays out, but I personally think Johnson will have another very good year, starting this Sunday.
Chris Smith: The Texans defense will be better this season, so don't expect anything approaching 200 as it simply won't happen. The Chiefs offensive line could be very disappointing this season. Some of that statement is just a hunch but it is tough to replace top linemen in back to back seasons and the Chiefs are reeling up front. I can't see Larry Johnson averaging more than 4.2 YPC with this group so it will take 417 carries to top the 1,750 yard mark. With the Chiefs promising his carries to drop this year to keep him fresher and with Michael Bennett healthy and ready to help out, I think he will struggle to break the 1,500 yard mark at best in 2007.
Jeff Pasquino: A big one for me as an Eagles fan is whether Donovan McNabb good to go, 100%, and whether he will click with Kevin Curtis.
Chase Stuart: What's going to happen at WR in the AFC South, outside of Indianapolis? I don't have much of a feel for any of those situations. I like Brandon Jones, Dennis Northcutt and Jacoby Jones to exceed expectations, but I wouldn't be surprised if none of them reach 400 receiving yards, either.
Mark Wimer: Is Shaun Alexander all the way back from his injury marred season of a year ago? Is Matt Hasselbeck ready to roll for 2007? We'll find out starting this weekend, when they face off against the Buccaneers.
David Yudkin: Which teams not projected to do much offensively will in fact produce some decent fantasy options. Those teams include MIN, CLE, DEN, OAK, MIA, and ATL. For example, a few years ago the Cardinals were projected to be terrible and fielded Boldin who had one of the biggest debuts ever for a WR (if not the greatest).
Jason Wood: Great stuff guys, and I guess it really boils down to...THERE IS A LOT TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK!
One thing I think needs to be said, however, is that One Week Does Not a Season Make. There are going to be things we see this weekend which, looking back at season's end, really were head fakes more than answers. For example, I could see Dennis Northcutt having 3 catches for 100 yards and a long TD in Week One, but that doesn't mean he'll be the Jags top receiver. Or, I could see Jerious Norwood doing almost nothing in Week One against the Vikings' tough run D; particularly because Dunn appears to be the Week One nominal "starter." But that doesn't mean Norwood won't be the better runner this year and be highly productive.
I'm a big fan of watching out for the head fakes after Week One and taking advantage; hoping someone in your league punts a very solid bench player to spend free agent bidding dollars on the one-week wonder.
Maurile Tremblay: Definitely. A lot of week one stat lines will be misleading, and there's a bit of an art to distinguishing between what's real and what's a mirage when we only have a single game to go on. That's an issue we'll be touching on next week for sure. Until then, enjoy the games this weekend and good luck in your fantasy leagues!
