The Profit - Week 1

  Updated 9/7 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome back, folks. The last time we saw one another, I think I was busy accurately predicting the outcome of Super Bowl 41. Of course, that was after losing all but twice in the first few rounds but hey who's counting?

Admittedly, those aren't very spectacular numbers. But I've heard on our message boards that there are ways to bet more heavily on certain games so as to maximize returns and make even MORE money. Of course, I don't condone that. These picks are simply for entertainment purposes (as will become painfully obvious the further we get into the season).

I'm also doing things a bit differently this year with the weekly Power Rankings column, which will be listed at the bottom here. I'd like to say it's a way of becoming more streamlined and efficient, but the reality is actually more like not having enough hours in the week.

Alright so before we get down to business here, there's this little matter of catching up to do. Let's see, during this past off-season I did the following:

• Flew for the first time (twice, actually)


• Got engaged (which accounts for the wedding planning, which accounts for the whole "not enough hours in the week" comment you see above)


• Discovered Flight Of the Conchords.

Actually that's pretty much it for my off-season. I guess it's time to be mediocre again.

Let's get to the picks!

INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Alright so I had to go and edit my write-up here because I didn't get this article in by my deadline. I'm not sure if I'm supposed to admit that or not, considering it's pretty awful to miss your deadline for the first week of the season. But alas, it's the truth. For the record, however, I looked around for the most honest guy I could find and e-mailed him my selection for game 1 on Thursday night. So if you have any questions, David Dodds can confirm that I did, in fact, select Indy here. They were also going to be a best bet, but in the interest of fairness I will refrain from that. PICK: Colts

DALLAS (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Seriously, the Giants aren't any good. I got a little better feeling about Eli Manning after he basically told Tiki Barber to eff off (alright, so that wasn't really the gist of it but it sounds much cooler). And this is coming from a guy who isn't the biggest Manning fan in the world. So ok, Eli will probably be at least serviceable. And Brandon Jacobs should put up decent, though not spectacular, numbers. And Shockey will be right there in the end. But anyone who thinks that the Giants are going to be good as a team is a lunatic. In fact, anyone who has thought they were going to be good for the past two years should lose their jobs, if their job involves predicting football outcomes. Luckily for me, sometimes the games are easier to predict than others. And when you've got a very good Dallas team at home in prime time against a mediocre Giants club with a lame-duck head coach and very little offensive cohesion to speak of, that is a game that screams blowout win. PICK: Cowboys

HOUSTON (-3) vs. KANSAS CITY
It's almost become so fashionable to rip the Chiefs that it's getting ludicrous. Look, I think the Chiefs are going to win 5 games this season, tops. But that's a whole heck of a lot better than 2 or 3, like some people are making it seem. They won't be historically bad. And let's not forget that the Texans are a pretty wretched team themselves. They're making positive strides in personnel, but Matt Schaub may not be quite as good as he looked in his 14 minutes of action or whatever it is that will earn him all those millions of dollars and Super Bowl ring(S). It's just that, until I see the games in the box score in Week 1 and see that Houston has a winning record, I can't feel safe laying points with them against just about anybody. PICK: Chiefs

JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) vs. TENNESSEE
The Jaguars are, in all likelihood, a lot better than the Titans. Looking at last year's matchups doesn't reveal very much information, either. The Jags blew out Tennessee in their first meeting by 30 points. But was that the same Titans team which then came back to win six of its last seven games (including a 24-17 victory over Jacksonville)? Heading into this year, the Jaguars have the far better defense and a much more well-rounded running game. They also have their own scrambling QB now in David Garrard. They even showed a great ability to hold down Vince Young's rushing effectiveness (8 rushes for 18 yards, 0 TD in the two contests combined). But what they do not have, in my opinion, is the ability to put up points at will. That's not to say that a seven point victory would be a blowout; it's just that laying 6.5 points with an offense that is likely to feature one of the league's worst passing attacks seems a bit much for Week 1. PICK: Titans

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at NEW YORK JETS
This is probably one of the two toughest games to pick this week. On the one hand, the Jets and Pats were pretty evenly matched head-to-head last year. The Pats took the first meeting in New Jersey by seven, with the Jets snagging the game in Foxboro by three. Of course, the Patriots fared much better in non-Jets contests which just goes to show that Eric Mangini may well prove to be a worthy adversary to Bill Belichik. Let's not forget, it was just a few short years ago that guys like Bill Parcells and Mike Shanahan were playoff geniuses whose teams couldn't possibly lose the big games. I'm not saying Belichik is overrated by any means; just that this league does go in cycles. Now all that being said, the Patriots made significant upgrades to their team this off-season that leads many to want to hand over the Lombardi Trophy right now. But the Jets aren't going to just go away here. According to our very own Chase Stuart, the Jets landed the football equivalent of a date with Jessica Biel by trading for Thomas Jones. Actually, Chase didn't really say that. But I know he was thinking it. And I also know he'd probably prefer the latter (even for the date part). But I digress. All in all, I can't see enough of a difference in Week 1 between these two to give that significant an edge to the Pats in Giants Stadium. I figure another barn-burner that comes down to the end, with the Jets losing by a field goal. PICK: Jets

PHILADELPHIA (-3) at GREEN BAY
It's not so much that I just LOVE the Eagles. It's that Green Bay is pretty bad. This isn't an easy game to pick, only because it's in Lambeau. But over the past few seasons, Lambeau hasn't exactly been Lambeau and that mystique is getting a tad overrated. The fact that Vegas is putting the Eagles, who weren't exactly dominant last year (and with a QB coming off a torn ACL), as favorites IN Green Bay is telling enough for me. PICK: Eagles

SAN DIEGO (-6) vs. CHICAGO
I can understand why some might think this line is high in favor of San Diego. After all, one team actually played in the Super Bowl last season and it wasn't the one in SoCal. Problem with that logic is that it disregards the chasm of talent level between the NFC and the AFC. Put the Bears in the AFC and they'd likely be a playoff team still, but no sure thing. Put the Chargers in the NFC and pencil them in for the Super Bowl. Sure, the Chargers didn't go out and make a big splash in free agency. But they did retain nearly all key personnel, and their young players got another year older and wiser. The Bears should still be an NFC contender this season, but that doesn't mean they're amongst the NFL's super elite. PICK: Chargers

SEATTLE (-6) vs. TAMPA BAY
This is the other half of the toughest games to pick for this week in my opinion. The Seahawks are expected to bounce back this year and everyone is just going to fall in line and be good again, right? Well, maybe. And I can tell you one thing about Tampa for sure, and that's that they are being seriously overlooked. Let's think about this for a minute...Carolina isn't all that good...Atlanta is in shambles...the Saints were never good until last year. Would it be ludicrous to think that Tampa could challenge for the division? I'm not suggesting they'll win it, but I think they will be the only team to give the Saints a challenge. And not just because the rest of the division has problems. Jeff Garcia is a huge upgrade over Chris Simms and Bruce Gradokdokjowieoijski. And would it be the first time that Jon Gruden has worked wonders with a seemingly over-the-hill quarterback? The answer is a resounding no, or did you not watch Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson play for him? Now...ALL that being said, I can't bring myself to go with them in as tough a place to play as Seattle, at least not right now. I'm one of those people who think the Seahawks will make a comeback, though not on the level of dominance like 2005. They should get their season off on the right foot, however, and at least assert themselves as a legitimate playoff contender again. PICK: Seahawks

SAINT LOUIS (-1) vs. CAROLINA
One of the easier games to call in my opinion. The Rams simply have too much firepower at home to allow the Panthers to be in the game very much. I understand that Carolina's defense is far superior, but even that won't account for the difference between Steven Jackson and whoever happens to be carrying the ball for the Panthers. PICK: Rams

WASHINGTON (-3) vs. MIAMI
Neither of these teams inspires much confidence in me for 2007, but at least the Dolphins made a coaching change to a guy who is a very good offensive mind. The Miami defense is also very stout and should have little trouble giving Jason Campbell and co. fits all game long. We all have seen the Miami offense this summer, and have seen that it could take a little while to get going. But the Redskins aren't all that great on either side of the football, and this line is more out of respect for them being home rather than the fact that they are any good. PICK: Dolphins

CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. BALTIMORE
The final piece of the tough game trifecta, I say good for you if you have the cajones to actually bet money on either of these teams. All I will say about this matchup is that I got kind of a bad vibe about the Bengals during the off-season with all the negative stories and very few positive ones. Yes, that's not all that difference from usual but the reality is that these weren't just off-field issues. This was things like Kenny Irons being hurt, the team losing out on a claim to Antonio Pittman, the Willie Anderson injury, Levi Jones situation...I'm just not feeling the love for them. Of course, that will all change when Carson Palmer throws for 450 yards and 4 TD just to prove I'm an idiot, but until then I'm a bit leery. PICK: Ravens

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) vs. ARIZONA
Another tough game to pick, if for no other reason than it pits two very similar teams against one another. Both have fast-improving offenses with a lot of young talent on that side of the ball, but somewhat porous defenses. I actually would like to pick for this game to be a betting tie (as in, a three point victory for the Niners), but I'm required to pick an actual team so I'll go with the Cards. PICK: Cardinals

Best Bets

DENVER (-3) at BUFFALO
On the one hand, the Broncos are going to be pretty good. And on the other hand, the Bills won't be. PICK: Broncos

MINNESOTA (-3) vs. ATLANTA
I'm sitting here trying to figure out why this spread is only three points. The Vikings have another year of experience from Tarvaris Jackson, their defensive personnel is still very good, the receivers have a year of experience, the team has added Adrian Peterson to an already stout run game, and they are at home. The Falcons had as rough an off-season as one team can have, where everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong. And now they're only three point dogs on the road? No thanks. PICK: Vikings

OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. DETROIT
The Raiders are going to surprise some people this year. Not so much the casual observer who will see their W/L record (which will still stink). But the people who follow the league closely. The Raiders aren't just a loser laughingstock franchise like they've been the past few years (wow, defending Eli Manning AND the Raiders in the same piece?!?). The defense is good enough to keep them in games, the running game should be much-improved, and the passing game may actually show a few signs of life here and there. Perhaps most importantly, Art Shell is nowhere near the premises. All that being said, Detroit is ready to roll this year. This offense, which was already difficult to contain with a healthy Kevin Jones, will be unstoppable. Seriously. The offensive talent is ridiculously good, and Jon Kitna could throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TD in his sleep. It'll be an interesting matchup, to say the least, watching Detroit's offense challenging the Raider defense, but one in which I think the Lions will come out on top. I just think Detroit comes out and makes a big statement in Week 1, and the Raiders will not feature a winning record at any point this year. PICK: Lions

PITTSBURGH (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
The Browns are starting to come around and feature actual NFL players at a whole lot of key spots, particularly on offense. The problem is, the biggest problem spot for them is still being manned by Charlie Frye. With the Pittsburgh defense returning every starter, he may not make it out of this game alive. That's not to mention the rapidly-improving Steeler offense. PICK: Steelers

PICK OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rankings

1. New England Patriots
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Denver Broncos
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Chicago Bears
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. New York Jets
12. Philadelphia Eagles
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
14. Seattle Seahawks
15. Detroit Lions
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Tampa Bay Bucs
18. Saint Louis Rams
19. Carolina Panthers
20. New York Giants
21. Miami Dolphins
22. San Francisco 49ers
23. Minnesota Vikings
24. Green Bay Packers
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Buffalo Bills
27. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Tennessee Titans
29. Cleveland Browns
30. Washington Redskins
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. Houston Texans

2007 Predictions

1. Chargers
2. Colts
3. Patriots
4. Ravens
5. Steelers
6. Broncos (Jets just miss out)

1. Saints
2. Cowboys
3. Bears
4. Seahawks
5. Eagles
6. Lions (Bucs, Cardinals just miss out)