Third Round Reversal of Fortune (16 Teams)

Posted 7/25 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Not every redraft league is created equal. If you've played fantasy football for a couple of years or longer, you probably have realized that there are advantages to getting the first pick. In the past few years, the first two or three draft picks have provided many fantasy teams with a competitive advantage. Just take a look at most teams that made the playoffs or even won their leagues with LaDainian Tomlinson last season and you will know exactly what we are talking about. Everyone wants the #1 RB every year, and this year is no different.

What are leagues doing to try and strike a competitive balance? Some leagues are going to an auction format where everyone can buy whomever they like as long as they are willing to spend for him, but not every league can manage to get all the owners together or even agree to do an auction. Still others are looking at a different way to set up the draft order to assist the teams drafting near the end of Round 1 that go beyond the traditional normal "serpentine" or "snake" draft format.

In this series of articles we will take a look at how these draft orders differ from one another, and just how much they do to creating better balance and make the draft fairer for each owner. However, before we get into each format, we need to set a baseline for values so that we can have a frame of reference.

May I Take Your Order?

Before we go too far, we need to define the different draft approaches that are out there:

Normal Serpentine ("Snake") Draft Order - This is the one that everyone has seen and is the most common draft style. The even rounds are the reverse order of the odd, meaning that if you pick first overall you go last in Round 2 and then first again in Round 3. That order continues back and forth as the draft "snakes" down the draft board, hence the name.

Third Round Reversal or "Banzai" - Often abbreviated "3RR", this alternative draft method has gained popularity in recent years. This style is often confused with Third Round Serpentine (See #3), but it is actually a much simpler draft format. Only Round 3 is reversed from the original "snake" draft order, so the person going last in Round 1 gets to go first in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. The owner who has the first overall pick doesn't start a round again until Round 5.

Third Round Serpentine or Third Round "Flip" - Often abbreviated "3RS", this draft method has also gained popularity of late, mostly because two national contests (NFFC and Rotobowl) have adopted this format. Unfortunately, they are both calling it "Third Round Reversal" (or "3RR") rather than by the correct name, which is confusing a lot of owners who are not familiar with either. Third Round Serpentine looks exactly like a snake draft except that the first two rounds are reversed. The person who drafts first in Round 1 goes last in Round 2 AND Round 3, meaning that the person going last in Round 1 goes first in Round 2 and Round 3 - hence the "flip". After that change in Round 3, it continues to snake down the draft board, just like before, so the twist occurs between Rounds 2 and 3.

Double Serpentine or "Double Snake" - This is yet another alternative to drafting where the owner who goes last in Round 1 leads off Rounds 2 and 3, but then the owner who started Round 1 gets to start Rounds 4 and 5. This continues for the remainder of the draft (two rounds match each other in order, then they switch for two) and the draft board looks like a snake draft except it twists back every two rounds instead of one.

If you didn't follow all of that, don't worry. I'll add some pictures to illustrate each type in a minute.

What is "Fair"

In order to see how balanced each of these approaches are, we first need to define a value for each pick. There's no better way around that I've found than just plugging each pick into a Pick Value Calculator, such as the one found at Footballguys. Of course everyone's opinion on what each pick is really worth can vary from year to year, but the calculator value method at least gives us an idea of a typical value for each pick. Even better news is that we will use these values to evaluate each method, so it will be more of an "apples to apples" comparison.

Now that we have a value basis, we can jump right in and evaluate each of these different draft orders and see how this all shapes up. Below you will find four tables, one for each format, for a 16-team, 12-round draft (beyond 12 rounds the value is insignificant). To make it easier to follow, I've color-coded the rounds. Those that are highlighted in tan are the rounds where the order is reversed.

Table 1 - Normal "Snake" / Serpentine Draft

Rd	Team Number
Rd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1	1889	1823	1759	1699	1642	1587	1535	1485	1438	1393	1351	1310	1272	1235	1200	1167
2	804	820	836	853	872	890	910	931	952	975	998	1023	1049	1076	1105	1135
3	788	773	759	745	732	719	707	694	682	671	660	648	638	627	616	606
4	455	464	473	482	491	500	510	519	528	538	547	557	566	576	586	596
5	446	437	428	419	410	402	393	384	375	367	358	350	341	333	325	316
6	197	204	211	217	224	231	239	246	253	261	268	276	284	292	300	308
7	191	185	179	173	167	161	156	151	146	141	136	131	127	122	118	114
8	72	73	75	77	79	81	83	86	88	91	94	97	100	103	107	111
9	70	69	67	66	65	64	63	62	61	61	60	59	59	58	57	57
10	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	52	53	53	54	55	55	56	56
11	44	43	42	40	39	37	36	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	20
12	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	14	16	18

Table 2 - Third Round Serpentine ("3RS")

Rd	Team Number
Rd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1	1889	1823	1759	1699	1642	1587	1535	1485	1438	1393	1351	1310	1272	1235	1200	1167
2	804	820	836	853	872	890	910	931	952	975	998	1023	1049	1076	1105	1135
3	606	616	627	638	648	660	671	682	694	707	719	732	745	759	773	788
4	596	586	576	566	557	547	538	528	519	510	500	491	482	473	464	455
5	316	325	333	341	350	358	367	375	384	393	402	410	419	428	437	446
6	308	300	292	284	276	268	261	253	246	239	231	224	217	211	204	197
7	114	118	122	127	131	136	141	146	151	156	161	167	173	179	185	191
8	111	107	103	100	97	94	91	88	86	83	81	79	77	75	73	72
9	57	57	58	59	59	60	61	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	69	70
10	56	56	55	55	54	53	53	52	52	51	50	49	48	47	46	45
11	20	21	23	25	27	29	31	32	34	36	37	39	40	42	43	44
12	18	16	14	12	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	0

Table 3 - Third Round Reversal ("3RR") / "Banzai"

Rd	Team Number
Rd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1	1889	1823	1759	1699	1642	1587	1535	1485	1438	1393	1351	1310	1272	1235	1200	1167
2	804	820	836	853	872	890	910	931	952	975	998	1023	1049	1076	1105	1135
3	606	616	627	638	648	660	671	682	694	707	719	732	745	759	773	788
4	455	464	473	482	491	500	510	519	528	538	547	557	566	576	586	596
5	446	437	428	419	410	402	393	384	375	367	358	350	341	333	325	316
6	197	204	211	217	224	231	239	246	253	261	268	276	284	292	300	308
7	191	185	179	173	167	161	156	151	146	141	136	131	127	122	118	114
8	72	73	75	77	79	81	83	86	88	91	94	97	100	103	107	111
9	70	69	67	66	65	64	63	62	61	61	60	59	59	58	57	57
10	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	52	53	53	54	55	55	56	56
11	44	43	42	40	39	37	36	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	20
12	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	14	16	18

Table 4 - Double Serpentine / "Double Snake"

Rd	Team Number
Rd	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1	1889	1823	1759	1699	1642	1587	1535	1485	1438	1393	1351	1310	1272	1235	1200	1167
2	804	820	836	853	872	890	910	931	952	975	998	1023	1049	1076	1105	1135
3	606	616	627	638	648	660	671	682	694	707	719	732	745	759	773	788
4	596	586	576	566	557	547	538	528	519	510	500	491	482	473	464	455
5	446	437	428	419	410	402	393	384	375	367	358	350	341	333	325	316
6	197	204	211	217	224	231	239	246	253	261	268	276	284	292	300	308
7	114	118	122	127	131	136	141	146	151	156	161	167	173	179	185	191
8	111	107	103	100	97	94	91	88	86	83	81	79	77	75	73	72
9	70	69	67	66	65	64	63	62	61	61	60	59	59	58	57	57
10	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	52	53	53	54	55	55	56	56
11	20	21	23	25	27	29	31	32	34	36	37	39	40	42	43	44
12	18	16	14	12	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	0

Snakes are too Plain

So what does it all mean? What format is best, and which has the best distribution of value?

For that answer, we have to do a little bit of math. We are still putting faith in the values of the picks here, but again this is an apples-to-apples comparison across all four formats, so it should even itself out.

To determine what system appears to have the most equitable distribution of value, I will take a look at the overall totals for each Team's draft picks in each format as well as the first four, six, eight, ten and finally twelve picks. By taking this approach, we can see if the distribution of values is uniform throughout the draft(s) and if there is any favoritism towards any of the teams by choosing one method over another.

Here are the results:

Table 5: Value Distributions for All Formats - 16 Teams

Rounds	Snake			3RS
Rounds	High	Low	% Diff.	High	Low	% Diff.
First 4	3936	3504	12%	3895	3542	10%
First 6	4579	4128	11%	4519	4182	8%
First 8	4842	4353	11%	4744	4434	7%
First 10	4957	4466	11%	4857	4548	7%
Total	5001	4504	11%	4895	4590	7%
Rounds	3RR			Double Snake
Rounds	High	Low	% Diff.	High	Low	% Diff.
First 4	3754	3612	4%	3895	3542	10%
First 6	4397	4240	4%	4538	4167	9%
First 8	4660	4471	4%	4763	4422	8%
First 10	4775	4584	4%	4878	4535	8%
Total	4819	4622	4%	4916	4578	7%

So starting with the "Snake" version, we see that there is a bias at the early part of the draft towards the team that picks first, and it is pretty big (12% value difference). At every breakpoint, Team #1 is always the first in value and Team #16 is dead last.

The next best solution for a 16-team draft is the Double Snake format, which has a 10% difference at the onset but tapers down to a 7% difference by the end of Round 12. The interesting part about this method is not that the #1 Team has the highest value, but which team has the lowest value. For the first six rounds in the Double Snake, Team #15 (not the last team, Teams #16) was last. After eight rounds and for the remainder of the draft, Team #14 had the biggest draft disadvantage.

An even better distribution comes from the Third Round Serpentine method, which has a 10% difference at the onset but tapers down to a 7% difference by the end of Round 8 and stays there for the rest of the draft. The interesting part about this method is not that the #1 Team has the highest value, but which team has the lowest value. For the first four rounds it is Team #15, then after six rounds it is Team #14, and then for eight rounds and beyond it is Team #13 that has the biggest disadvantage.

(Note that with 12 teams, Third Round Serpentine fared worse than Double Snake, although both were close.)

Finally, the clear winner is Third Round Reversal, or "Banzai" style of drafting. Right at the start after four rounds, the variation is just 4% in point values and it remains at 4% as the draft progresses. The best team is still #1, but the worst team is now Team #9 for the first six rounds. After eight rounds have passed, Team #11 becomes the least advantageous team and remains in last place for the rest of the draft.

After all this number-crunching, it seems rather safe to say that the true Third Round Reversal is the fairest approach to drafting for 16 teams, which also happened to be the answer for both 12 and 14 team drafts.