Trader Joe's - Week 7

Posted 10/17 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are in Week 7 where we are back to the usual four teams on a break. Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego and Carolina all get two weeks to rest up, while six teams return to action. So if you are missing Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson or Brett Favre, there may be some sneaky guys to go get from Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Denver, Indianapolis, Detroit or San Francisco. The thinner talent pool and the injury bug will lead to some desperation by fantasy team owners to be competitive this week. All of that will inspire some good trade bargains, and it is up to savvy owners to find these situations and make good deals.

So once again, as always, you have to remain active in the trading marketplace. We have a lot of owners who are doing just that, so let's delve into some of their questions.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Rudi Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Johnson, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
Scoring format
Number of teams in your league
Roster size
Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

Question 1: Futures trading
Question 2: The impact of reduced PPR scoring
Question 3: Young IDP studs in Dynasty Leagues
Question 4: Bad timing
Question 5: Communication and Motivation
Question 6: Evaluation of Future Keepers

So let's get to it.

We start off Week 7 with a great question from "Sack-Religious" who is looking to make two deals, but only has one worked out so far:

Question 1:

Hi Jeff, how risky is acquiring a player in the hopes of trading him, but without a definite trading partner?

Here's the scenario.

8 teamer, redraft - PPR, all TDs 6, 1 pt per 10 yards rush/rec. Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, PK, DEF + 8 bench.

A guy in my local $ league is determined to sink or swim with LJ and Alexander and is looking to bolster his WR core by trading RB depth.

His roster:

QB: Hasselbeck, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler
RB: Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Portis, Lamont Jordan
WR: Chad Johnson, Andre Johnson, Deion Branch, Greg Jennings, Donte Stallworth
TE: Heap, Shockey

My roster:

QB: Romo, Roethlisberger
RB: Bush, Fast Willie Parker, Travis Henry, Ahman Green, DeShaun Foster, Selvin Young
WR: Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Brandon Marshall, Santana Moss, James Jones
TE: Heath Miller, Chris Cooley

I initially inquired about Larry Johnson and Alexander, but he doesn't want to move either of them and would rather part with Portis.

In the proposed deal I would give up DeShaun Foster and Roy Williams, and I would receive Clinton Portis and Javon Walker.

Normally, I'd do this in a heartbeat, but Walker's knee concerns me (with probably no news about his progress coming out until next week) and the fact that we only need to start 2 2RBs makes me wonder if I need to acquire additional RBs Ideally I'd like to move Portis to upgrade my WR3 or TE position, but the reality is that with the small league-size and everyone making the playoffs, most teams that are underperforming right now (due to injury or ineffective play) want to stand pat and ride out the storm rather than looking to trade to improve their immediate performance. I've asked this owner about Andre Johnson, but he won't part with him.

With Bush, Portis, "FWP" and Henry (should he not be suspended and Young if he is suspended), I've got great depth that should be able to net me solid WR (hopefully straight up) or better TE like Witten or Gates (if I combine a RB with one of my middling TEs).

However, if I don't find a trading partner, I've got RB points sitting on the bench and a solid, if healthy, WR instead of Roy Williams in the pass-happy Detroit offense. Add in the fact that many teams have really loaded up on WRs means that the WRs available on the waiver wire aren't that worthwhile in an 8 team league where everyone fields good to great WRs each week.

Interested in hearing your thoughts.

Here is my reply:

Hi Sack-Religious,

Ah, this is a great question.

When you make a deal in the hopes of making a follow-up deal with the newly acquired guy(s), I always try and have a few things lined up:

A trade partner
A deal worked out
The ability to close both deals nearly simultaneously

I also like to try and only do this with guys that I am comfortable keeping. Regardless of how careful you try to be, it can fall apart at the last minute. I would try and get an e-mail or something to hold his (or her) feet to the fire if they back out at the last minute. They also have their reputation at risk, and I'd threaten to "out" him for bailing on a pre-negotiated deal. The threat of losing future trade partners is usually enough to get that 2nd deal done (and it usually doesn't ever come to that).

I think you can make this deal and wind up fine, but it is certainly a risk that you are taking.

Knowing how often RBs get hurt, I'd take the chance and see what shakes out. I think the trade, at face value, is favorable even if you don't cut that second deal.

Great question and thanks for it.

Good luck.

This is a really good question, and one that comes up every year. Making deals in the hopes of getting more at a later time is a tricky proposition. As I mentioned in my initial response, you better lay the groundwork for moving that second trade as quick as you can before the second owner gets cold feet. If he sees that you got the player he wants on the cheap it could blow the whole deal.

Our next question for the week comes from "akchahal", who is contemplating a deal in a league that gives only a half-point for a reception:

Question 2:

Hi Jeff,

I'm in a 0.5PPR redraft league with 12-teams. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1K and 1 D.

I'm happy with the consistency of my team but am still waiting for them to explode. I have a lot of WR depth but have only gotten 3 TDs on the season from my Big 3 (Javon Walker, Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson). Even though I need the RB depth I'm looking to trade away Javon Walker and Sammy Morris for Houshmandzadeh and LenDale White.

I like "Housh" because he's averaging over a TD per game so far and my team is in desperate need of some TD action. Is it a good idea to trade away some RB depth (after this week Sammy Morris probably would sit on my bench barring a really good matchup) to get some TDs but lose some receptions in a 0.5PPR? Your thoughts or advice would be appreciated.

His team:

QB : Romo, Warner
WR: Housh, Steve Smith, Toomer, Mike Furrey, Stallworth
RB: Shaun Alexander, LenDale White, Reuben Droughns, Correll Buckhalter
TE: Todd Heap
D: San Diego, NYG
K: Rackers

My team:

QB: Hasselbeck
WR: Fitzgerald, Javon Walker, Calvin Johnson, Shawn McDonald, Andre Davis, Vincent Jackson
RB: Fast Willie Parker, Kevin Jones, Sammy Morris, Derrick Ward, Jason Wright
TE: Heath Miller
K: Shayne Graham
D: Arizona Cards

So this was my initial response:

Hi akchahal,

When you have less than full PPR, TDs are much more desirable. That's your goal - points. TDs are worth 12 catches, not 6, so yes going after a TD producer like Housh is a good idea.

Also remember that Chris Henry is due back in a few weeks.

Good luck.

The bottom line is that whenever you are looking at trades, always remember to factor in your scoring system. In leagues with PPR, you value pass catchers much more than in a league that emphasizes yards or touchdowns more in the scoring. With just 0.5 PPR in this case, that valuation goes down accordingly. Scoring and yardage matter much more, just like they would without PPR. If you equate how many catches equal to a touchdown (12 catches and a TD are both six), the answer becomes much clearer.

The next question comes from "AC05", who has asked several questions in Trader Joe's to date. That's perfectly fine, we love good questions. This one in particular is focused upon an IDP Dynasty league:

Question 3:

Hey Jeff, I'm back!

I am struggling big time at the WR spot...both because of injuries and underperformance

10 Team Dynasty, non PPR
Passing- 4/td, 1/20 yds
Rushing/Receiving- 6/td, 1/10 yds
Defense- 5/int, 2/tack, 1/asst, 4/sack

MY TEAM

QB(1)- McNabb, Roethlisberger, Leinart
RB(2)- FWP, Adrian Peterson, Bush, K. Jones, S. Young, Turner
WR(3)- Holt, Boldin, S. Moss, H. Ward, Calvin Johnson, Jennings
PK(1)- Vinatieri
DL(2)- J. Abraham, C. Grant, P. Kerney
LB(2-3)- P. Willis, E. Sims, M. Peterson, McIntosh, Brooking, DiGiorgio
DB(2-3)- Sanders, R. Williams, Harper

The teams I'm looking to deal with are BOTH in the top 4 teams in the league (with myself and other)...Team 2 is in my division.

Team 1 has offered Terrell Owens for Willis straight up...I countered with TO for Sims and he is thinking about it.

Team 2 has offered Chad Johnson and Antonio Pierce for Willis and Calvin Johnson...I asked him to consider Willis, Boldin, and a second round pick instead...but is this giving up too much?

Would you do both of these if I can? I think #1 is the best deal even if I do give up Willis, right?

…

As always, thanks for your help!

And my response:

Hi AC05,

Looking at both options:

For trade one, in a league where you get 2 points for a tackle, Willis seems more likely to get 20 in a game than TO, and is much younger. I'd hold Willis.

For the second offer, it is closer to good value, but again you're giving up on two young players with strong upside. Pierce and Willis basically cancel, so would you trade Calvin for Chad Johnson? It is a tough call here and more of a personal preference.

Your counter seems like you are giving him too much. Look at what your 2nd rounder would have fetched last year (Brian Leonard?). Boldin and the 2nd seem like even more value to give than Calvin.

Bottom line - don't be shortsighted. They are after players who are young and were #1 picks a few months ago, and with Willis being off for a week they are hoping you'll move them for less than true value. Don't do it.

Good luck.

Trades involving IDPs are always tricky. How many do you start? How deep is the waiver wire? What is the scoring system?

Again, always go back to the scoring system. If you are getting two points for a tackle, young first round LBs are studs to have on your team for many years to come in Dynasty leagues. Don't be so quick to move them off your roster - build around these types of players.

Question 4 comes in from "sirsydney", who is trying to acquire a hot QB, but might be a victim of bad timing:

Question 4:

OK, with Warner out at least a week, I grabbed Bulger off the free agent list. I'd like to settle the QB position, and would like to target getting Brady. With the exception of QB, I'm doing better than he is at just about every position. If I were to allow myself to let go of Randy Moss or Wayne, what would be a realistic offer worthy of his consideration (unless he has a man-crush on Brady, and who wouldn't, and won't let him go, period? )

The Brady owner has this roster:

QB: Brady, Favre
WR: Housh, Crayton, Booker, Ginn, Dante Hall
RB: Jacobs, Sproles, Rudi Johnson, Hicks
TE: Heap
K: Vinatieri, Dawson
DST: Jacksonville, SF

My roster below:

QB - M. Bulger, K. Warner, J. Cutler
WR - R. Moss, D. Driver, S. Holmes, R. Wayne
RB - LJ, E. James, T. Jones, A. Green
TE - A. Gates, H. Miller
K- S. Gostkowski
DST - Minnesota, Baltimore

1. Number of teams are in your league = 12
2. How many of each position you start = 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 W/R, 1 W/T, 1 K, 1 DEF
3. The size of your roster = 10 active, 6 bench
4. Your league's scoring system

Pass TD = 4
TD = 6
FG = 3, 40+, 50+
All yardage = 10 yds/ 1 point
Sacks = 1
Int/Fum = -1/-2

Here is my quick response:

Hi sirsydney,

That's a tough one, especially the timing. Green Bay is off this coming week, so who would he start for QB?

You may have to wait a week for this attempt, and then try and give Moss and Gates (who will be past his bye) for Brady and Heap. That might do it.

Good luck.

Sometimes the timing for a trade offer just isn't right. Brady is a hot hand and will be tough to acquire for a fair price, regardless of the offer. Here in this instance you have another issue in that his backup (Brett Favre) is off in Week 7, so making a deal for his primary QB will leave him without a starting QB.

Things might change by waiting a week, but you really have to examine the other team's roster to see what would be left before making an offer that will be rejected very quickly.

Question 5 comes from "TheFatKid", who wants to know if he is getting good value for his depth:

Question 5:

Jeff,

Thanks in advance.

12 Team, Keep 2 (in bold), .5 PPR, 6 P for any TD, 1 Pt / 10 Rush and Pass Yard, 1 Pt / 25 Pass Yard
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB or WR), 1 Defense. Total roster size 16.

I prefer to start WR at the flex.

My roster:

QB: Favre, Bulger (Will acquire Garcia via waivers)
RB: LT, Jordan, Chris Brown, Rhodes, Norwood, Michael Bush
WR: Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith (Car), Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Roddy White
TE: Heath Miller
D: Ravens

His Roster:

QB: McNabb, Campbell
RB: Ronnie Brown, Ahman Green, DeShawn Wynn, Derrick Ward, Brandon Jackson, Kenny Watson
WR: Holt, Harrison, Galloway
TE: Winslow, LJ Smith
D: Giants, Jags, Dolphins

For the second week in a row, this owner has offered me Galloway and Green for Boldin.

Other than week 7 I have good WR depth, but I am sorely lacking at RB depth.

I know the owner proposing the trade is after Boldin because of his sweet schedule down the road.
I've looked at Galloway's weeks after the bye (Atl, Wash, NO, Hou, Atl, 49ers) and that's not bad. But Green has tough sledding ahead of him during the same stretch (NO, Cle, Ten, TB, Den, Ind). Barring further injury to Jordan or LT, Green may not merit a start.

What are you thoughts on the deal?

And my reply:

Hi TheFatKid,

You have the WR depth to give up Boldin here for sure. I don't know if you need another WR back for it (Galloway) but he is pretty good. Ahman Green helps you with Tomlinson off this week, but that's a short term issue.

It isn't a bad deal at all, but it seems to help him more than it helps you (but it does help both).

Also, who are you going to cut for this deal? That would likely hurt you as well.

Talk to him directly and just hash out what he really wants. It may be Boldin (likely) but let him know what your needs are. Maybe you can get Campbell or McNabb.

Good luck.

The key to understanding trade offers is to know what the other guy is thinking. Sometimes that owner will just come out and tell you why they are making the offer, and some are just kicking the tires. Communication is critical here, and once you figure out what each other really want and need, you may be able to make a nice "Win-Win" deal.

Our final question is a Keeper question, with a view towards moving good players this year to acquire good players and also good Keeper options. "arlingtonpark27" poses this question:

Question 6:

Good afternoon Jeff,

I've been offered a trade in a 10-team, 1/2 PPR league. We are allowed keepers, but it depends on when players are drafted. For example anyone drafted in the first three rounds can not be kept and anyone after that can be kept for the penalty of two rounds (if drafted in 9th can be kept for a 7th). We have 15 roster spots and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K & 1 Team Def each week. The rosters before the potential trade are as follows:

My Team:

QB - Brady, Rivers
RB - Westbrook, L Jordan, M Barber, DeAngelo Williams
WR - Harrison, Chambers, Engram, Bruce, Northcutt
TE - Winslow, Dallas Clark
K - Folk
D - San Diego

Other Team:

QB - Kitna, Brees
RB - ADP, T Henry, S Alexander, T Jones, K Jones
WR - TO, S Holmes, Cotchery, Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward
TE - Gates
K - Gostkowski
D - Minnesota

The trade that was proposed to me is:
TO, S Holmes, Gates, T Jones for Westbrook, Marvin Harrison, Winslow

The only three players that can be kept due to when they were drafted are Santonio Holmes for a 13th rounder, T Jones for a 3rd rounder and Winslow for a 9th rounder.

Should I take the trade to get TO, Holmes as a keeper and Gates and T Jones or should I pass or counter?

Thanks, your help is much appreciated!!!

Steve

Very interesting. My reply:

Hi arlingtonpark27,

Interesting. At face value, he gets more talent - but no keepers.

Holmes for a 13th is a great value, TJones for a 3rd is not, and KW2 is about right.

Given where you can get these guys next year (or not) I think that this trade isn't favorable. You are overpaying for the thought of keeping Thomas Jones (there were many good options at picks 41-50 at RB), for example.

I would pursue Santonio Holmes and maybe KW2 as part of the deal, but at face value I would pass.

Good luck.

When looking to set up your team for Keepers, you need to consider where you would have to draft the same players next season. Is Santonio Holmes a 13th round talent? No, he is worth more, so that is a keeper. What about Thomas Jones, is he worth a third next year in a 10 team league? Unlikely.

Putting your Keepers up against a redraft value scale can put good perspective on your Keeper decisions.

So that will do it for the Week 7 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe�s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.� First introduced here.

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.