Trader Joe's - Week 6

Posted 10/10 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are in Week 6 in the first of two hellacious Bye Week Scenarios, as SIX TEAMS are off rather than the usual four. That's right - Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Detroit, Denver, Buffalo and San Francisco are all taking a rest, but as we all know your team keeps on going. What does this mean for trading?

Well, with the byes taking out almost 20% of all the available talent in the NFL, some teams will be scrambling to not only be competitive but in some cases to just even field a lineup. This desperation will inspire some good trade bargains, and it is up to savvy owners to find these situations and make good deals.

We're also about halfway through most fantasy regular seasons, and many teams are still wondering what the rest of the year will be like. What happened to the talented players that are stumbling out of the gate? Should I trade them if I own them, or should I be trading for them if their current owner has had enough? Comparing the performances of some players against the teams and defenses that they have faced sometimes helps, but figuring out this dilemma is part of what makes Fantasy Football the great game that it is today.

So once again, as always, you have to remain active in the trading marketplace. We have a lot of owners who are doing just that, so let's delve into some of their questions.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Rudi Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Johnson, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
Scoring format
Number of teams in your league
Roster size
Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

Question 1: Dynasty - Looking to the Future in October….
Question 2: Shallow IDP league trades
Question 3: Risk of injured players vs. Reward of playoff studs
Question 4: Offering a menu to choose from
Question 5: Sweeten that 2 for 1 offer
Question 6: Moving the "hot hand"

So let's get to it.

We start off Week 6 with a Dynasty League question, which is always fun. Here "jcu123" asks:

Question 1:

Dynasty League - 14 Teams - 25 man rosters (20 active 5 taxi)
Scoring basics - 1pt / yd, 5 pts / rec, 75 / TD + bonuses

I'm 1-3 to start the season and am almost at the point where I'm looking toward next year. Are there any good trades I can make that will improve my dynasty team.

My Team:

QB - P. Manning, Schaub, Rodgers
RB - Barber, S. Jackson, Leonard, Norwood, Taylor, Ward, Watson, Young
WR - Battle, Reggie Brown, Coles, Colston, Curry, Reggie Williams, Henderson, L. Hill, Lance Moore
TE - none (with our formations we don't have to carry one)
K - Rackers, Brown
D/ST - Colts, Packers

I really don't think I can win anything this year so I'm looking to find some middle of the road WRs that I can get cheap, but could break out toward the end of the season / next year and who I should move to get them. Trading for known good players is almost impossible.

We have a 7 round draft and I've already given up my 1st rd pick for Jackson in the "preseason".

Interesting to be looking at 2008 already, but let's check my response:

Hi jcu123,

When it comes to rebuilding in Dynasty, you have to consider selling off your best assets and going with a youth movement.

If you wait, you will lose both value and years of availability for your studs once the rest of your team matures.

If you want to really rebuild and make a big move - Trade Manning.

Good luck.

This is a radical approach, but you really have to think about your team. If you are rebuilding, players that will be closer to the end of their careers than at the beginning will not be around long to help your rebuilding efforts. Trading known good players and go after younger stars is the way to rebuild for the long haul.

Our next question of Week 6 comes from "smackdaddies", who is contemplating a deal in an IDP league:

Question 2:

Re-Draft

1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 TE, 1 flex, 1 k, 3 IDP
6pt td, ppr, ppr doubles when player makes 10 catches or more in a game (i.e. 9 catches =
9pts, 10 catches = 20 pts)
12 teams
Roster size = 18

My Team

QB: J Cutler, J Garcia, J Campbell
RB: A Green, E Graham, R Johnson, M Jones-Drew, D Rhodes
WR: R Williams, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, R Curry, G Jennings, P Burress
TE: B Watson
K: M Stover
IDP: S Cooper, Z Thomas, L Tatupu

His Team

QB: D Brees, B Favre
RB: M Lynch, K Jones, F Gore, R Dayne, L Betts
WR: D Jackson, D Bowe, C Johnson, M Colston
TE: A Crumpler
K: S Graham
IDP: D Johnson, M Peterson, K Dansby, A Thomas, L Fletcher

Both teams are 1 and 3, looking at the short end if the season doesn't turn around. I have WR that I am dangling around the league, he has, well not much other than the hope Brees turns around. Plus some nice IDPs

His offer:

Brees for Housh (turned that one down)

My considerations for offers:

Option 1: Plaxico Burress, Curry and Campbell for Brees, Dayne and L Fletcher
Option 2: Plaxico for Brees

Here is my reply:

Hi smackdaddies,

When IDPs are involved, I have to know the scoring. IDP values range a ton. Now with 3 IDPs though I bet you can do fine on the waiver wire.

So - never deal for an IDP unless he's insanely good (or cheap) in shallow IDP leagues.

I don't like either deal as you're trading a Top 15 WR for a non-need (QB) in #2, and #1 looks worse.

I'd pass on both.

Good luck.

The essence of this question is this - if you are playing in IDP leagues that are just "sampling" the IDP player pool, there is almost always usable talent available in free agency or via the waiver wire. Think about it - there are over 100 starting linebackers in the NFL, and about 40% of those put up good numbers each week. Why trade offensive talent for something you can get for free?

The next question comes from "ajj13", who is inquiring about a trade involving two guys that can't even get on the field right now:

Question 3:

Redraft league. Start 1 QB 2 RBs 2 WRs 1 TE 1 K 1 D/ST

My starters:

Manning
Henry, Foster
R Williams, TJ Housh
Shockey
Graham
Titans

Key reserves: Dunn, Crayton, Delhomme

Have been offered Steven Jackson and Hines Ward for either Williams or Housh and Dunn.

Is the STL offense too risky to pull the trigger? Not sure I can count on Foster.

Here is my reply:

Hi ajj13,

Wow, two injured guys for a stud WR AND a RB.

If you can survive your byes and wait until they are healthy, you might win a Championship - but I'd want a little more than Ward.

You might just take the risk and roll with it, but two injured players makes for a big gamble.

Good luck.

Trades involving "damaged goods" are all about managing risk. If you can weather the storm until these studs get healthy again, you could be a force come playoff time. The only issue is getting to the playoffs. This is where depth really comes into play.

Question 4 comes in from "staggerlee", and it really is a classic. He is wondering which offer to make for a possible deal:

Question 4:

10 team redraft
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1Flex, 1TE
TD= 6pts, 100 yds = 3pt + 1 pt every 20yds after

My Team:

QB: Brady, Garrard
RB: SJackson/Leonard, Westbrook/CBuck, Benson/APeterson, Pittman, Turner
WR: RMoss, Burress, Boldin, DJackson, Curry
TE: Witten, Daniels

I'm trying to get Reggie Bush from an owner who traditionally is tight but is off to 1-3 record.

Should I:

a) Offer Benson/Peterson, Pittman and Curry for Bush, Hasselbeck and CHenry
b) Offer "SJax"/Leonard and Curry for Bush, Hasselbeck and CHenry
c) Do either if he accepts one
d) stay put

Thanks.

Four options, and so much to choose from. Here was my answer:

Hi staggerlee,

I'd offer both and see which one he likes. Some people like choices. Let him pick and possibly strike a deal.

Good luck.

Short and sweet, just how I like 'em. The gist here is this - Don't decide what the best offer to the other guy is, let him make that call. When you go into a restaurant, do they offer you one item or a menu? People like to make choices, so offer multiple options that all make sense to you and let him decide.

Question 5 comes from "Lambert", who wants to know my thoughts on a 2 for 1 offer including a running back on both sides of the table:

Question 5:

Jeff,

Thanks in advance -- I've been offered Kevin Jones in exchange for Fred Taylor & Heath Miller.

Redraft league
Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
Standard scoring (no PPR), 14 teams, 17 player rosters

I have:

RB - LT, Derrick Ward, Fred Taylor, Justin Fargas (I drafted Caddy but lost him to injury)
TE - Heath Miller, Owen Daniels

His team:

RB - Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, Kevin Jones
TE - Chris Baker

This seems like a good deal for me, but I'm always looking for a 2nd opinion when it comes to trades.

This is a pretty good offer, but let's take a look at my answer:

Hi Lambert,

If you can survive the loss of your TE (I think you can with Daniels) then I like the move. Kevin Jones looks like he's ready to play again, and Detroit certainly moves the ball better than Jacksonville.

I might ask for Chris Baker back to cover your bye, especially since he has to cut someone to fit an extra player.

Good luck.

Here is a way to sweeten the deal on your side. You have already been offered a good player for two of yours, which means that the other owner has a roster issue if he takes an extra guy. Ask who he plans to cut and see if you can get that player which might help your team as well.

Our final question is another Dynasty question, with a view towards selling a player who is really doing well so far this year. "nyftbl_giants" poses this question:

Question 6:

Hi Jeff,

14 team PPR dynasty.

I'm 0-5 in one league and looking to move Derrick Mason.

Age and health obviously will play a part in someone's decision making, but right now in the PPR he's hot as hell. What should I expect to get back from an owner that wants to make a run and needs a receiver this season? I have a young roster and no specific need more than another. Throw a few names at you if you don't mind

Great question. Here is my reply:

Hi nyftbl_giants,

I'd expect to get a draft pick here from a team that wants to ride a "hot hand" towards a championship. The only issue then is that if they do well this year, the pick is worth less (unless it isn't their pick).

I'd try for Curtis and a 2008 2nd round pick, maybe a 2008 first if they are desperate.

Target a team with a winning record who has a draft pick from someone else that isn't doing well and also might have a WR issue or two (say the Andre Johnson owner).

Good luck.

When looking to move a "hot hand", even an older one, see what you can get. People make trades in Dynasty and Keeper leagues that they wouldn't do in the offseason once they start to smell that chance at a championship. See what you can get for players you likely won't value much come next March and get something you will, like a draft pick for them now.

So that will do it for the Week 6 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe�s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.� First introduced here.

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.