Trader Joe's - Week 2

  Posted 9/12 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Defending Reality

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

For example, this week we are between Weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season. Many teams still "smell brand new", and as a result trading will be difficult for star players, except for possibly those who underperformed in Week 1. The period immediately following your league's draft and Week 1 is known as "The Honeymoon Period", when a lot of owners are still in love with their draft day picks and aren't looking to make many moves or trades.

After Week 1 games comes a very interesting time for trading, as many players are either exceeding expectations or underperforming. This is the time where some owners will hit the "Panic Button", while other savvy owners will use this time to sell players at peak value. This will also come up again a little later.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Tiki Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Barber, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

• Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
• Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
• Scoring format
• Number of teams in your league
• Roster size
• Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
• Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
• Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

• Question 1: Don't press that Panic Button just yet.
  
• Question 2: You have to "sell" your trades.
  
• Question 3: Shopping players before you deal.
  
• Question 4: Don't micromanage your trade offers.
  
• Question 5: Swapping IDPs for offense.
  
• Question 6: Helping out a friend in need.

So let's get to it.

Our first question this week comes from "lebowski", who is thinking about moving one of his first players selected from his fantasy draft after only one week of football:.

Question 1:

Here is one for you...
12 team redraft
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D & 1 K

My dilemma is that I have Cedric Benson on my team as well as Adrian Peterson (CHI). I also have Adrian Peterson (MIN). Would you try to offer a trade to the Chester Taylor owner for the Chicago RBs? I was thinking of offering Both Chicago RBs for Taylor and L Betts. Don't know if it would fly, but I think he is weak at his RB2 and this might be my best chance to get Taylor (since he was injured). What do you think? Am I giving up on the Chi. running game too quickly?

Thanks

Wow, he's thinking of bailing on Benson and his backup already. Let's see what I said in response:

Hi lebowski,

Great question as usual.

You drafted Benson for a reason, and bailing after Week 1 is not the best strategy. Going after a player you like (Chester Taylor here) sounds good, but will you start him over Adrian Peterson or Benson? Probably not.

I'd hold tight and not give up on your high picks just yet, but if you can get Betts and/or Chester Taylor cheap that might be a good idea. I wouldn't give up your top two backs though.

Good luck.

This is a classic "Panic Button" situation. You picked your players on draft day for a reason, and you cannot in good conscience give up on them after just one week. In this example, Benson went up against a very good defense (San Diego), so you cannot just judge him after one game. The fantasy season, just like the NFL, is a marathon, not a sprint. Hang in there and don't compound the problem by selling your best assets short in a trade.

Our second question comes from "PranksterJD", who is in a Dynasty league and writes:

Question 2:

Jeff, need some help working a 10-team dynasty trade.

6 pts all TDs, 25 yds/point passing, 10 yds/point rush and receive. No PPR.

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 3 IDP

Mine:

• QB: Romo, Hasselbeck, Losman, Stanton
  
• RB: Reggie, ADP, DeAngelo, Kevin Jones, Michael Turner, Michael Bush, Brian Leonard, Kenny Irons (IR)
  
• WR: Steve Smith, Evans, Calvin, Braylon, Mark Clayton, Hackett, DBowe,
  
• TE: Owen Daniels
  
• K: Stover
  
• IDP: D. Ryans, Ernie Sims, Patrick Willis, Sean Jones, Jon Beason
  
• 2008 1st round picks: 2

His:

• QB: Rivers, Culpepper, Frye, Tarvaris, JaMarcus
  
• RB: LJ, Willis, Portis, Lamont, Marshawn
  
• WR: Boldin, Reggie Brown, Berrian, Curry, Santonio, Matt Jones, Jerry Porter
  
• TE: Cooley
  
• K: Gostkowski, Scobee
  
• IDP: Bart Scott, Tatupu, Zach Thomas, Julian Peterson, Napoleon Harris
  
• 2008 1st round picks: 0

Obviously he's got some talent over me, but he's looking hard for a starting QB. I feel like I do need another RB, since I really see a playmaker like Reggie Bush as a guy to occupy my Flex spot and need someone else to start for me.

He's offered Portis for Romo straight, but I think I can play down Portis' mileage, play up Romo's potential and get more (greedy?). Alternatively, I could deny Romo and see what I can get for Hasselbeck.

Looking for help from any angle. Is the old-for-his-age RB worth the young, talented QB with superb weapons straight up given my depth (or lack thereof)? Should I view his offer as an initial low bid and push for more? Is the older, proven QB someone that I should be pushing, or someone I should be saving? Am I wasting my time?

Hope week 1 worked out for you, and thanks in advance.

And my reply:

Hello again PranksterJD,

I agree with not giving Romo straight up for Portis. Romo is absolutely a "sell high" candidate, but you can get more.

Shop Romo in general and see what other teams want to get in the mix.

Good luck.

Moving a player who excels after Week 1 can be a great move, but you need to pick and choose your deals wisely. Maximize the peak here in values to get the best players you possibly can in return. Just because someone was the first one to make you an offer doesn't mean that you have to do the deal with them - but it is sometimes a good idea to let them have a shot at the player they covet. Bottom line is that it is your team and you have to do what is in your best interests, so choose your deal wisely.

Question 3 comes in from "rascal", who is in search of a particular player who he feels will have upside in a changing offense:

Question 3:

With Frye being traded and Quinn likely to start soon I was thinking of targeting Braylon Edwards to help my WR group. 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, RB/WR, TE, K , D. Traditional scoring but with yardage bonuses (100 yards receiving=3 points) and 1 point per three receptions

My team:

• QB: Big Ben, V Young
  
• RB: Parker, Benson, Green, S Morris, J Chatman, A Peterson (CHI)
  
• WR: Galloway, S Moss, Holmes, Bruce, Porter
  
• TE: Gates
  
• K: Kaeding
  
• D: Panthers and Raiders

What about Morris and Bruce to the Edwards owner (who has Maroney).

Interesting thought on going after Braylon Edwards. Here were my first thoughts:

Hi rascal,

That sounds like it should work, but as usual it all depends on the other owner.

Pitch it and see if it flies - but definitely sell the "get your RB handcuff" angle.

Good luck.

As with any trade offer, it takes "two to tango". Just because you think it is a good offer doesn't mean that the other owner will also think the same way. You need to put your offer in the best light possible - such as playing up a particular angle, like a backup to one of his (or her) key starters - and try to finalize that deal.

Our next question comes in from "FWmaker", who has a deal on the table involving future draft picks:

Question 4:

Hey Jeff, thanks for your (previous) help. Need some input here.

Pertinent League Info:

• 12 Team, Dynasty, NPPR, IDP
• Roster 38 + 5 Man Practice Squad (roster expands to allow for draft)
• Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 1DEF-Flex

I offered a trade of Reggie Brown, WR, PHI for LaRon Landry, DB, WAS. He has countered with Brown & 2008 2nd rounder for Landry & 2008 3rd rounder. I'd like your thoughts. I've further thought of countering with a switch of our 3rd and 4th rounders instead - or sticking to the straight up trade.

Welcome back FWmaker,

Based on the counter (a second rounder for a third) I'd say you're close.

If you think you'll be a good team and he won't, this is close enough (your second is late, his third early).

Cut the deal.

Good luck.

Trades involving draft picks can be tough, but you need to keep the big picture in mind. Where will you be drafting if you improve? Hopefully at the back end of each round. If the team you are working the deal is less of a team, he may even have an early pick. The net result could mean you are trading just a few draft spots in the big picture (a late second for an early third). If you are close on the deal and are just quibbling over draft picks, especially during the season, I say cut the deal and get it done. Too many things change too quickly, so if it is close enough to what you want, get the deal closed.

Our next question is also a bit complicated, as it involves offensive players and IDPs. "AC05" poses this question:

Question 5:

Hey Jeff,

I've been approached by an owner who is looking to acquire a receiver. He says he's "not looking for a major trade, just somebody who will put up more than 0 points."

This is my first year in both dynasty and IDP, so I'm still not very sure on the value of draft picks and IDP vs Offense. I just picked up Welker for this very reason, but I'm not sure what the correct value of a WR3 is Vs IDP or future drafts.

Also, I'm not sure I want to get rid of Welker right now.

My team and the league info is in my sig- here is his team:

QB- Kitna, Pennington, Campbell
RB- LJ, Henry, Edge, Deuce, B Jackson
WR- S Smith, Driver, M Clayton, Ginn, B Jones, Meachem
DL- Taylor, Suggs, Kelsay, Ogunleye
LB- Lewis, Fletcher-Backer, Briggs, beason, Barnett
DB- Barber, Mathis, Schweigert

Looking deeper at his league and team, here is what I saw:

Hi AC05,

Let's take a look:

• 10 Team Dynasty
  
• Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, PK, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB +1 IDP
  
• Passing- 4/td, .05/yd; Rushing/Receiving- 6/td, .1/yd
  
• Defense- 5/int, 2/tack, 1/asst, 4/sack

Your Team:

• QB- McNabb, Roethlisberger, Leinart
  
• RB- FWP, R. Bush, AD Peterson, K. Jones
  
• WR- Holt, Boldin, S. Moss, Ward, Calvin Johnson, Welker, Jennings
  
• PK- Vinatieri
  
• DL- J. Abraham, C. Grant, P. Kerney
  
• LB- P. Willis, E. Sims, M. Peterson, Brooking, Crowell, D. Harris
  
• DB- Sanders, R. Williams, Harper

Since you only have 7 IDPs to start and 10 teams, there's a lot of value on the waiver wire. In general, if the waiver wire is deep, trade IDPs for offense.

A trade should be compared to what you can do on the WW. If you can gain about the same amount from a waiver wire move, why bother wit a trade?

I'd hold Welker and then consider a waiver wire move if you need to improve your IDPs.

Good luck.

Trading IDPs for offense is usually a great idea, especially in relatively shallow leagues. IDPs can come out of nowhere much easier than an offensive player can, so if you can upgrade your offense at the price of a defensive player, I'd usually recommend that move.

Our final question for Week 2 comes from "[icon]", who is trying to help out a friend who had a terrible draft:

Question 6:

Jeff, wanted to run this by ya.... File under "Giving up a little too much.. or losing a battle to win the war"

I'm helping a friend recover a team that was HORRIBLY drafted. 12 Team league and she's a huge saint's fan so she grabbed Brees / Bush / McAllister as well as stocking up on TE early (Shockey / Davis)...and neglected WR (Santonio Holmes = #1 WR)

I've helped her consolidate WR talent to acquire Braylon Edwards to go with Holmes and Bruce, giving her at least a serviceable WR corps... plus of all the positions, WR is fixable off the wire.

The key here, IMHO, is to use her depth at TE to upgrade Deuce.. I've suggested she target Henry or Rudi with a Shockey + Deuce offer. Ordinarily I'd be hesitant to consider a trade like this but Davis is IMHO not too large of a drop off (~10pts or so in her system) and she'd be seeing a pretty sizable upgrade at RB2.

Curious if you think, given her rather desperate situation, this might still be giving up a little too much for a 1-tier upgrade at RB. Her team as it stands is likely in serious trouble...

Tough road here as this team will struggle, but [icon] seems to be up to the challenge. My reply:

What you are suggesting is a good plan. Use the assets she has to get value and starters, even if overspending.

Shockey and Deuce could fetch a good running back, so this is a pretty good idea.

Sounds like she's on track to compete soon. Nice work helping her out.....

This is great trading practice here. Making moves to try and upgrade a team, however you can, is a great way to get better at making deals. Move whatever assets you have and just forget about depth if you take over a bad team - depth is a luxury. Build the starters to be the best you can and then add depth from free agency.

So that will do it for the Week 2 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe’s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com. 

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.  First introduced here. 

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.