Trader Joe's - Week 17

  Posted 12/26 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are entering NFL Week 17, which means that most fantasy football leagues are finished - right? Well, not so fast my friends. Some of us fantasy football fanatics go year-round in this hobby, playing in either Keeper or Dynasty Leagues. That is our focus here in the final installment of Trader Joe's for 2007. While we are still taking trade questions regarding all types of trades and league formats over at Trader Joe's, in this week's column we are going to be taking another look at leagues that go multiple years. Week 15's column was the first part of this discussion, as we addressed many questions regarding in season trading. We then built upon that foundation and look at the more complex year-round leagues that exist in fantasy football, starting with Keeper Leagues in Week 16. Finally here in Week 17 we will be focused upon helping out the Dynasty League players as the synopsis will look at our best thoughts and ideas for the deepest of the annual leagues.

We have a lot to get to, and I think most everyone knows the format for the questions, so let's jump right in. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here, and also mark the earlier weekly column in which the more detailed example can be found.

• Week 2, Question 2: You have to "sell" your trades.
• Week 2, Question 4: Don't micromanage your trade offers.
• Week 2, Question 5: Swapping IDPs for offense.
• Week 3, Question 5: Age has value in Dynasty and Keeper leagues.
• Week 4, Question 5: Going for it.
• Week 6, Question 1: Dynasty - Looking to the Future in October….
• Week 6, Question 6: Moving the "hot hand"
• Week 7, Question 3: Young IDP studs in Dynasty Leagues
• Week 8, Question 4: Turn the Deal on its Head
• Week 9, Question 1: Players now vs. Future First Rounders
• Week 9, Question 3: Trade or Keep Adrian Peterson
• Week 10, Question 6: Dynasty - Thinning the Bench
• Week 11, Question 4: Building a Keeper League into a Dynasty League
• Week 11, Question 5: I Love Brian Westbrook - but...
• Week 13, Question 2: Dynasty League, Salary Cap League, or Both?
• Week 13, Question 4: The Impact of Playoff Pushes on Dynasty League Teams
• Week 13, Question 5: Draft Picks on the Cheap
• Week 14, Question 2: Dynasty League - Forward Looking Deals
• Week 14, Question 4: Dynasty League - Building for the Long Term
• Week 14, Question 5: Dynasty Depth and the "Joe Jurevicius Test"

So let's get to it.

Week 2, Question 2

Moving a player who excels after Week 1 can be a great move, but you need to pick and choose your deals wisely. Maximize the peak here in values to get the best players you possibly can in return. Just because someone was the first one to make you an offer doesn't mean that you have to do the deal with them - but it is sometimes a good idea to let them have a shot at the player they covet. Bottom line is that it is your team and you have to do what is in your best interests, so choose your deal wisely.

Week 2, Question 4

Trades involving draft picks can be tough, but you need to keep the big picture in mind. Where will you be drafting if you improve? Hopefully at the back end of each round. If the team you are working the deal is less of a team, he may even have an early pick. The net result could mean you are trading just a few draft spots in the big picture (a late second for an early third). If you are close on the deal and are just quibbling over draft picks, especially during the season, I say cut the deal and get it done. Too many things change too quickly, so if it is close enough to what you want, get the deal closed.

Week 2, Question 5

Trading IDPs for offense is usually a great idea, especially in relatively shallow leagues. IDPs can come out of nowhere much easier than an offensive player can, so if you can upgrade your offense at the price of a defensive player, I'd usually recommend that move.

Week 3, Question 5

The bottom line here is that trades in multi-year leagues (Dynasty or Keeper) are evaluated far differently than in redraft / single year leagues. On the surface - and for 2007 only - a trade of Maroney and Benson would not be enough to get Terrell Owens and Shaun Alexander. However, once you factor in that this isn't just for 2007, you start to realize that the age of the player is also a value. Younger RBs are worth more than the older ones, and it actually extends to WR and QB as well. Players age, and there are only so many good years for everyone. Keep that in mind.

Week 4, Question 5

In leagues that span multiple years, sometimes you just have to go for it. Have faith that you can and will make trades in the future to improve your squad yet again. Sometimes you just have to forget about next year and worry about now. If not now, when? A championship could be yours in less than 16 weeks. Take your shot!!!

Week 6, Question 1

If you are rebuilding, players that will be closer to the end of their careers than at the beginning will not be around long to help your rebuilding efforts. Trading known good players and go after younger stars is the way to rebuild for the long haul.

Week 6, Question 6

When looking to move a "hot hand", even an older one, see what you can get. People make trades in Dynasty and Keeper leagues that they wouldn't do in the offseason once they start to smell that chance at a championship. See what you can get for players you likely won't value much come next March and get something you will, like a draft pick for them now.

Week 7, Question 3

Trades involving IDPs are always tricky. How many do you start? How deep is the waiver wire? What is the scoring system?

Again, always go back to the scoring system. If you are getting two points for a tackle, young first round LBs are studs to have on your team for many years to come in Dynasty leagues. Don't be so quick to move them off your roster - build around these types of players.

Week 8, Question 4

Trades involving RBs often come together between owners of starters and the owner of his handcuff. The natural value play is established, and with so many injuries this year (and pending suspensions) the deals have an opening premise right away. There are times, however, when the deal cannot be done as there are differences of opinions on the values of each running back. So, why not turn the tables? If the other owner values that running game so much, offer him the other back in the equation for maximum value. You'll likely get a better deal with this approach.

Week 9, Question 1

If you haven't had a chance to check out the Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, I strongly advise you to do so. I've had a lot of feedback and nearly 100% of it has been positive. It's that powerful of a tool. It can look at your squad and give you a feel for how valuable each pick will be for your team next year, tailored to your league.

At some point you have to stop collecting first round draft picks because you won't have enough room on your roster for all these players. You will also need some talent for 2-3 years as these rookies develop in the NFL - very few rookies hit the ground running. Don't overstock the picks at risk not being able to get the maximum value. Trade some for a known valuable player today and get something now that could be worth more in the long run. Don't get caught holding the back with too many picks next April.

Week 9, Question 3

Here's that Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator again. I hate to keep bringing it up (OK, maybe I don't) but it is a tool you should check out.

In this deal, "Chunky Soup" is thinking of moving a potentially strong player for the next several years. There's an old saying that "Whoever gets the best player in a trade wins the trade." Well, that could definitely be the case here. Willie Parker and Larry Fitzgerald are strong players, but if you don't need to improve at both positions and have depth, why would you give up Adrian Peterson? This kind of deal would only make sense for a franchise in total rebuild mode, and I think you could still do better.

Week 10, Question 6

Once again we revisit the classic debate of "depth vs. studs", but we have the Dynasty twist here. Like I mentioned last time, you can trade your depth - as much as you can - for the best available starters and forget about your bench. However, in Dynasty, you are always building for "Now" and also "Later". The part that often gets forgotten during the NFL season is the future aspect of Dynasty. Go ahead and free up 2-3 roster spots and get some more marginal guys off the waiver wire. Improve your first 75-80% of your roster and forget those spots. Fill them with guys who could emerge late this year or possibly wind up in a better situation before the 2008 NFL Draft.

The worst case scenario here is that you cut the bottom 20-25% of your squad before your rookie draft, but guess what - you have both offseason free agency and your rookie draft before the 2008 season. Both of those events will require you to trim your roster and make some room available anyway, so go ahead and make some moves now.

Week 11, Question 4

This is a great way to build up to a Dynasty League. I love this concept of adding one-third of your keepers per year until you have a full Dynasty League roster. Very interesting. I completely agree about keeping the best Keepers, but with the thought of being a full-blown Dynasty League in two years, I would focus on youth as well. Bear that in mind whenever you think about building (or rebuilding) a Dynasty team.

Week 11, Question 5

As I mentioned in the previous question, age is an important factor. If you think you are building towards a timeline 2-3 years in the future, you have to consider moving older players. I personally favor going for the "win now" attitude and to collect the veterans that are cheaper to round out my Dynasty teams year over year, but you do have to have some youth to build a decent core of talent.

So, if you are committing to a rebuild project, determine when you want to reemerge with a solid team and make EVERY decision with that date in mind.

Week 13, Question 2

Sometimes you play in leagues that claim to something that they really are not. I've seen Contract Leagues and Salary Cap Leagues call themselves Dynasty Leagues, which is not great because it can get confusing if you are either looking for a new league or if you are trying to explain your league to someone else. Each league type matters for evaluating players and value, so it is important to understand the differences. Player values dictate trades in Dynasty Leagues (along with draft picks). Salary caps and contract years do not.

Week 13, Question 4

Playoff pushes are a nice way for Dynasty League teams to dump older players on the teams that are in the hunt. If you believe you need help to win a Championship, by all means go for it - that opportunity may not be there next year. You should not, however, sell short your excellent young talents just for this chance. Sometimes you have to think about the long term benefits of a player and not give him away just for a one month push. It is a tough call, but some of the best deals are the ones you never make.

Week 13, Question 5

As I mentioned in the previous question, the playoffs are a big deal for Dynasty Leagues. Teams are heading in opposite directions, and not everyone has the same outlook all at once. Some are rebuilding and some are pushing for a championship. That's great, as you can often find a good "win-win" deal here. I think this is an example of one above, as getting a good player for WR depth and also collecting some draft picks is a great move. Draft picks are often undervalued during the season, whereas in March and April they are golden. Get some now while they are cheap.

Week 14, Question 2

Dynasty trading is really an art form. There is not only weekly and seasonal timing of offers and deals, but yearly timing. Towards the end of the NFL season more than half of the owners are already looking forward to 2008 and beyond. The lucky teams in the postseason are in "Short term" mode and chasing a potential championship. The differences in viewpoints can really create some great deals for the forward-looking teams.

Learning how to look at your squad and make smart choices for the future can accelerate a rebuilding effort. Decide what makes sense for your team and develop a 2008 plan now. Then just work that plan for the next several months. It may sound like a lot of work, but it will likely pay off this time next year.

Week 14, Question 4

Here is another team that is looking towards the future, and this time he has set the timeframe - 2009. That's important because the average NFL running back, for example, has a career of just four years. Holding onto any back that has three or more seasons under his belt may not make sense, and now you know that you have to trade away that player for younger player(s) and/or draft picks. Noticing that this is how your plan must work can set many deals in motion for your team, and you may even be in contention sooner than expected.

Week 14, Question 5

Taking a look at the free agent / waiver wire market is often a good idea on determining what types of players to hold to in Dynasty Leagues. If benches are short and there are viable receivers available week after week then you can afford to go after possible breakout players. If not, then you have to weigh the chances of that "boom" player turning into a "bust", leaving you with no value. I call this my "Joe Jurevicius Test", as he always seems to be available in some of my shallower Dynasty Leagues (12 teams, 24 roster spots). If a guy like him is available all the time, you have to go for players with big upside.

So that will do it for the Week 17 edition of Trader Joe's, the final installment for 2007. I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe’s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com. 

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.  First introduced here. 

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.