Trader Joe's - Week 16
Posted 12/19 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.
I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.
Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks to midseason up until the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.
Here we are entering NFL Week 16, which means that most fantasy football leagues are in their League Championship Games or Super Bowls this week. It is a huge week, but it also concludes the fantasy football season for almost everyone and marks the end of another remarkable season. Every owner, including the winner of the championship game, will start to look right away towards 2008. With that in mind, we are still taking trade questions regarding all types of trades and league formats over at Trader Joe's, but as I mentioned in last week's column we are going to be doing a three week end of year summary of Trader Joe's, as we started last week with redraft questions and now turn towards Keeper Leagues for this week. Week 17 will be just what the doctor ordered for Dynasty League players, as the synopsis will look at our best thoughts and ideas for the most intensive of year round leagues.
For those of you who can't get enough of Keeper League information let me point out another article I wrote a few weeks ago called FBG Futures. It is a look at the Top 120 players for 2008 from a Keeper perspective, with each position broken into tiers (from "A" to "C+" letter grades). Since each league is different, you cannot compare a "B" QB to a "B" WR or RB, but hopefully this article will give you some insight looking forward towards next year. As always, if you can't find what you need or want, drop me an e-mail here at Footballguys (pasquino@footballguys.com) and I will see what we can do for you to get your football fix satisfied.
We have a lot to get to, and I think most everyone knows the format for the questions, so let's jump right in. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here, and also mark the earlier weekly column in which the more detailed example can be found.
- Week 3, Question 5: Age has value in Dynasty and Keeper leagues.
- Week 4, Question 5: Going for it.
- Week 5, Question 4: The Real Goal of Keepers.
- Week 7, Question 6: Evaluation of Future Keepers
- Week 8, Question 5: Watch out for December
- Week 9, Question 4: Declaring Keepers
- Week 10, Question 5: Keepers - Trade a Good Keeper that you Can't Keep
- Week 11, Question 3: Capitalize on a backup RB in a Keeper League
- Week 11, Question 4: Building a Keeper League into a Dynasty League
- Week 13, Question 3: Whom to Keep in a Keeper League
- Week 14, Question 3: Keeper League - Figuring Out the Likely Keepers
So let's get to it.
Week 3, Question 5
The bottom line here is that trades in multi-year leagues (Dynasty or Keeper) are evaluated far differently than in redraft / single year leagues. On the surface - and for 2007 only - a trade of Maroney and Benson would not be enough to get Terrell Owens and Shaun Alexander. However, once you factor in that this isn't just for 2007, you start to realize that the age of the player is also a value. Younger RBs are worth more than the older ones, and it actually extends to WR and QB as well. Players age, and there are only so many good years for everyone. Keep that in mind.
Week 4, Question 5
In leagues that span multiple years, sometimes you just have to go for it. Have faith that you can and will make trades in the future to improve your squad yet again. Sometimes you just have to forget about next year and worry about now. If not now, when? A championship could be yours in less than 16 weeks. Take your shot!!!
Week 5, Question 4
In a league where you have Keepers, you have to always look to see how many players will be kept. In this league, only 24 players are kept, so unless you have 3 or more Top 25 players, I wouldn't worry about keeping anyone else. The goal in Keeper leagues is to amass the best keepers possible, even if you trade most of the rest of your team. In the long run, the best keeper teams are the most competitive.
Week 7, Question 6
When looking to set up your team for Keepers, you need to consider where you
would have to draft the same players next season. Is Santonio Holmes a 13th
round talent? No, he is worth more, so that is a keeper. What about Thomas Jones,
is he worth a third next year in a 10 team league? Unlikely.
Putting your Keepers up against a redraft value scale can put good perspective
on your Keeper decisions.
Week 8, Question 5
To try and determine the value of future picks in Keeper Leagues, one approach is to use the values for the Top 250 going forward and translate each player into a number. Add up both sides of a trade and subtract one side from the other. Now, just look up what player that difference is approximately worth, and then go figure out when that player was initially drafted in your league. That's the best guess way to figure out what pick makes the deal even.
Week 9, Question 4
Keeper Leagues are always interesting. One of those interesting aspects is when you have to declare your keeper players. I've always been a fan of holding out until the last minute (i.e. right before Week 1) to declare them, as that affords owners of the most information possible before trying to hold on to players. If you make those decisions too early, you run the risk of having a player lose a job, get hurt, or even retiring before you even see him suit up for your fantasy team.
Week 10, Question 5
Keeper Leagues are always interesting. Last week we talked about one of those interesting aspects - when you have to declare your keeper players. Now we have another key aspect in that if you have a good keeper yet you cannot keep that player, you need to move him to another team to recapture that value. Just because you can't keep all five of your studs in a "Keep 4" league, that doesn't mean that there isn't another team that is struggling to find good options. Make the exchange and help both sides.
Week 11, Question 3
Sounds simple enough, but there is a hidden elegance to the offer. By giving the owner of an injured RB his handcuff (in this case, Ronnie Brown / Jesse Chatman) this season, you force the hand of the other owner in a Keeper league. This doesn't make sense in a redraft league scenario, but by forcing him (or her) to decide which RB (or both) to keep for next season you tie his hands at keeping other prospects. You also capitalize on a player's value now that may not have as much value for other owners.
Week 11, Question 4
This is a great way to build up to a Dynasty League. I love this concept of adding one-third of your keepers per year until you have a full Dynasty League roster. Very interesting. I completely agree about keeping the best Keepers, but with the thought of being a full-blown Dynasty League in two years, I would focus on youth as well. Bear that in mind whenever you think about building (or rebuilding) a Dynasty team.
Week 13, Question 3
Keeper Leagues are fun, and they often lead to even more interesting and challenging leagues like Dynasty and Contract Leagues. That said, always try and look at what is best for your own team and maximize your keeper players. Take a look at the rest of your league as well and guess who will be kept - that helps to figure out what will be scarce in the drafting portion of your league next season. If you are facing 11 other owners who keep RBs like they are going out of style, you better plan on keeping as many as you can as well. It also helps to notice if a team is short on the better players and you might be able to deal someone you cannot keep for an extra pick.
Week 14, Question 3
Keepers are an interesting challenge as for valuations of players. While Dynasty Leagues look at the entire squad as keepers, most Keeper Leagues pick a select few players to hold on to each season. Depending on the depth of the Keepers in relation to your starters is one value. In leagues like the one mentioned here, relative value to next year's draft spots is also important. Knowing your rules and being able to figure out what keeper players makes the most sense for 2008 can separate your team from the rest.
So that will do it for the Week 16 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.
References:
Trader Joe’s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.
The Dynasty
Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino. First introduced here.
Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.
