Trader Joe's - Week 15

Posted 12/12 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Playoffs are heating up in the world of Fantasy Football, and the playoff chase is just as hot in NFL Week 15. Over 20 teams are still in the hunt for the postseason, and hopefully you are still in the chase for your league championship. The good news for fantasy owners is that everyone still has something to play for as no one has locked up their playoff spots yet (although New England is close). Even better is that the Patriots are also chasing history, so you should have a full compliment of players if you were fortunate enough to avoid the injury bug.

This time of year is exciting for many as the focus is almost entirely on the playoffs. To help teams focus and give everyone a breather, most leagues have also shut down the fantasy trading floor for at least a month or two, and Trader Joe's has seen the effect. With fewer owners working on deals or just plotting for 2008 in Dynasty or Keeper Leagues, we are getting only a handful of questions in the Assistant Coach Forum. Never fear - I will still be taking any questions you have for the rest of the year. It does mean, however, that I have to get a little creative and once again adapt. That's OK, that's what we do around here, we roll with the punches. So I am hereby announcing that I will be doing a three week end of year summary of Trader Joe's, starting now with a focus on in season and preseason trading, which should hit home for most redraft league players. Week 16 will focus on Keeper Leagues and Week 17 will be just what the doctor ordered for Dynasty League players, as the synopsis will look at our best thoughts and ideas for year-round leagues.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome, but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

We have a lot to cover this week, so let's jump right in to the Redraft League Summary. Each question will refer to the original Trader Joe's Week where it first appeared, but here is a nice and concise synopsis of what we learned from our trading talks this season:

Week 2, Question 1: Don't press that Panic Button just yet.
Week 2, Question 3: Shopping players before you deal.
Week 2, Question 6: Helping out a friend in need.
Week 3, Question 1: Evaluate a trade offer by looking at extremes.
Week 3, Question 2: Acting fast.
Week 3, Question 3: The influence of roster caps (and the waiver wire) on trades.
Week 3, Question 4: Using bye weeks to formulate trade offers.
Week 4, Question 1: "Panic Button" moves - just say no….
Week 4, Question 2: 4 for 3 = 3 for 1.
Week 4, Question 3: Trading in "Start 2 QB" leagues.
Week 4, Question 4: Buying damaged goods.
Week 5, Question 1: You have to Give to Get.
Week 5, Question 2: Just Say YES.
Week 5, Question 3: Approving Trades.
Week 5, Question 5: Do Not Sell Low.
Week 6, Question 2: Shallow IDP league trades
Week 6, Question 3: Risk of injured players vs. Reward of playoff studs
Week 6, Question 4: Offering a menu to choose from
Week 6, Question 5: Sweeten that 2 for 1 offer
Week 7, Question 1: Futures trading
Week 7, Question 2: The impact of reduced PPR scoring
Week 7, Question 4: Bad timing
Week 7, Question 5: Communication and Motivation
Week 8, Question 1: Perfect is never perfect enough
Week 8, Questions 2 and 3: "Win Now" trading
Week 8, Question 4: Turn the Deal on its Head
Week 8, Question 6: Using Multiple Footballguys Sources
Week 9, Question 2: Dealing with Owners who have "Tipped their Hand"
Week 9, Question 5: Trading Depth for Starters
Week 10, Question 1: "Hoarding"
Week 10, Question 2: Trade within a Trade - revisited
Week 10, Questions 3 and 4: Finding Complimentary Trade Partners
Week 11, Question 1: Selling at a "Local High"
Week 11, Question 2: Thinking Out of the Box
Week 12, Question 1: Selling the Hot Pickup
Week 12, Question 2: Buying before the "Comeback"
Week 12, Question 4: Moving a Team Defense
Week 12, Question 5: Playoff Positioning
Week 13, Question 1: RB Values in TD Heavy Leagues
Week 14, Question 1: A Trade for a Playoff Running Back

So let's get to it.

Week 2, Question 1

This is a classic "Panic Button" situation. You picked your players on draft day for a reason, and you cannot in good conscience give up on them after just one week. In this example, Benson went up against a very good defense (San Diego), so you cannot just judge him after one game. The fantasy season, just like the NFL, is a marathon, not a sprint. Hang in there and don't compound the problem by selling your best assets short in a trade.

Week 2, Question 3

As with any trade offer, it takes "two to tango". Just because you think it is a good offer doesn't mean that the other owner will also think the same way. You need to put your offer in the best light possible - such as playing up a particular angle, like a backup to one of his (or her) key starters - and try to finalize that deal.

Week 2, Question 6

This is great trading practice here. Making moves to try and upgrade a team, however you can, is a great way to get better at making deals. Move whatever assets you have and just forget about depth if you take over a bad team - depth is a luxury. Build the starters to be the best you can and then add depth from free agency.

Week 3, Question 1

Looking at a trade from two different extremes can be quite valuable. If the deal breaks perfectly, more than likely you will be thrilled with the outcome. Considering the other end of the spectrum also adds value when deciding to pull the trigger on a trade. If the "bust" possibility is still not that bad, I always recommend making the move. This is classic "bigger upside" vs. "low downside" evaluation.

Week 3, Question 2

I couldn't type this fast enough, hence it was a brief reply. Sometimes you just get lucky and sometimes you just have more info than the other guy. That's the breaks in fantasy football, just like in life. It is up to you to decide whether you want to make a deal for a "broken player" or not, and if that may come back to haunt you (Karma, anyone?), but this does highlight two things:

Don't make offers that dangle in the breeze over a Sunday (or Monday). Players get hurt, so trade offers can radically change value during a game. Don't get hung out to dry.
Timing and knowledge are everything. If you know more than your trade partner or if you make a deal at just the right time, a great value can be had.

Week 3, Question 3

The question doesn't seem to be that noteworthy (no offense to "moog9626"), as we try and pick out not only the best questions but also those that pertain to as many Footballguys as possible - but take a look at the league structure again:

Roster size: you are limited to 2 over how many you can start (3 qbs, 4 rbs, etc).

That's pretty important to notice. What that tells you that the depth of the waiver wire will be rather deep because no one can horde a particular position. Only 48 RBs can be rostered, so that means many RB2s are waiting out there to be taken. If you think that you are making a deal and not getting what you want out of it, think about what level of talent you can pick up off of waivers and stick in to your roster instead of the second or third player coming to your squad in the deal. That way you really don't care much about that last guy as you know you'll be cutting him first chance you get.

Week 3, Question 4

This one is very nice as "NF300" has looked at the other teams in his league and is targeting one with bye week issues. Byes are coming, and they affect everyone in different ways. Use this to your advantage and point out the problem to that owner, along with your solution in the form of a trade offer.

Week 4, Question 1

This screams "Panic Button" trade to me. He readily identified his team goals (opening up a roster spot for bye week subs) and then now he is considering a 2 for 1 deal in the wrong direction. Whoa, hold on there. Be sure you know what you are doing before you press "YES" on that trade offer. Depth doesn't win championships - your best lineup does. Don't trade your best WR for depth.

Week 4, Question 2

Trading one player's worth of depth so that your team improves at 3 starting positions (which in this case is also a healthy percentage of his starters as well) is a huge value. Trading depth for improvements in your lineup is a great move.

Week 4, Question 3

The key here is to note that this is a "Start 2 QB" league. That matters a great deal. Having a solid QB who will be playing every week has an intrinsic value. Last year, 50 different QBs started at least one game, and that kind of churn at that position can decimate a good fantasy team. Guys like Favre, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are worth even more as they never seem to get hurt.

Week 4, Question 4

Taking a peek at another team's lineup can give extra insight and a deal opportunity. Trading for an injured player is always risky, but if you can afford to do it the move can pay off big come December for your playoffs. (I didn't think "garyd" had enough depth to spare, and hopefully with Ahman Green's health issues he heeded my advice).

Week 5, Question 1

Everyone would love to have the problem of having both Tony Romo and Jon Kitna, but when you have another need you have to give up some value to get some value. Fortunately in this example it is depth at one position, but sometimes you have to rely on depth so that you can improve another spot (such as trading a Fantasy WR1 for a RB2, then using your bench depth at WR to replace the void). Don't be afraid to give up some value if you think you can fill the resultant hole in your roster.

Week 5, Question 2

Don't over think it, folks. If you get the best player in a 2-for-1 deal, AND he happens to be a Top 3 RB, why would you not do it? Forget bye week issues, get the deal done before he rescinds that offer.

Week 5, Question 3

Everyone wants to be fair, but how can you actually implement fairness? Especially when most commissioners are also team owners, it does get to be troublesome. That's why a "let the buyer beware" policy is most effective. Sometimes you will see some head-scratcher trades go down, but in the long run it does help your leagues.

Week 5, Question 5

Do not trade away your studs, even after four weeks, unless you get really good value. You cannot make matters worse by giving them away on the cheap. Remember, these players were at the top of the lists because they had great SEASONS, not a great September last year. They have proven that they can perform, so give them a chance.

Week 6, Question 2

The essence of this question is this - if you are playing in IDP leagues that are just "sampling" the IDP player pool, there is almost always usable talent available in free agency or via the waiver wire. Think about it - there are over 100 starting linebackers in the NFL, and about 40% of those put up good numbers each week. Why trade offensive talent for something you can get for free?

Week 6, Question 3

Trades involving "damaged goods" are all about managing risk. If you can weather the storm until these studs get healthy again, you could be a force come playoff time. The only issue is getting to the playoffs. This is where depth really comes into play.

Week 6, Question 4

Don't decide what the best offer to the other guy is, let him make that call. When you go into a restaurant, do they offer you one item or a menu? People like to make choices, so offer multiple options that all make sense to you and let him decide.

Week 6, Question 5

Here is a way to sweeten the deal on your side. You have already been offered a good player for two of yours, which means that the other owner has a roster issue if he takes an extra guy. Ask who he plans to cut and see if you can get that player which might help your team as well.

Week 7, Question 1

This is a really good question, and one that comes up every year. Making deals in the hopes of getting more at a later time is a tricky proposition. As I mentioned in my initial response, you better lay the groundwork for moving that second trade as quick as you can before the second owner gets cold feet. If he sees that you got the player he wants on the cheap it could blow the whole deal.

Week 7, Question 2

Whenever you are looking at trades, always remember to factor in your scoring system. In leagues with PPR, you value pass catchers much more than in a league that emphasizes yards or touchdowns more in the scoring. With just 0.5 PPR in this case, that valuation goes down accordingly. Scoring and yardage matter much more, just like they would without PPR. If you equate how many catches equal to a touchdown (12 catches and a TD are both six), the answer becomes much clearer.

Week 7, Question 4

Sometimes the timing for a trade offer just isn't right. Brady is a hot hand and will be tough to acquire for a fair price, regardless of the offer. Here in this instance you have another issue in that his backup (Brett Favre) is off in Week 7, so making a deal for his primary QB will leave him without a starting QB.

Things might change by waiting a week, but you really have to examine the other team's roster to see what would be left before making an offer that will be rejected very quickly.

Week 7, Question 5

The key to understanding trade offers is to know what the other guy is thinking. Sometimes that owner will just come out and tell you why they are making the offer, and some are just kicking the tires. Communication is critical here, and once you figure out what each other really want and need, you may be able to make a nice "Win-Win" deal.

Week 8, Question 1

When you are riding high at 6-0, you need to continue to keep focused. You are in a great position and should be in the playoffs, so start gearing everything towards that ultimate goal. If you make a deal that is looking towards December without much risk to your team, go for it and try and win the league.

Week 8, Questions 2 and 3

Fantasy seasons come and go very fast. If you are struggling and are below .500, you need to get there quickly just to possibly make a run for the postseason. Every move you make has to be with that in mind, so do not think about who might explode in December, for your team might blow up long before the playoffs.

Week 8, Question 4

Trades involving RBs often come together between owners of starters and the owner of his handcuff. The natural value play is established, and with so many injuries this year (and pending suspensions) the deals have an opening premise right away. There are times, however, when the deal cannot be done as there are differences of opinions on the values of each running back. So, why not turn the tables? If the other owner values that running game so much, offer him the other back in the equation for maximum value. You'll likely get a better deal with this approach.

Week 8, Question 6

When you look at trades, don't always look at the immediate changes to your roster. Think about the entire time that you will have these players, either for 2007 and the playoffs or beyond. In this case, I raise the issue that Brady may not play all of December, which is a distinct possibility and something you have to consider.

Week 9, Question 2

The key thing to pick up from this discussion is the "Tipped Hand". When another owner has told you that he "really wants Player X" or gives you a clue like "what do you want for him?", you now have an advantage. You know who he (or she) is after on your team, and you have to play that up. Get maximum value from another owner for a player that they really covet.

Week 9, Question 5

This is the classic debate of "depth vs. studs". When you have a marginal team but have depth, you have to make a calculated gamble. Trade your depth - as much as you can - for the best available starters and forget about your bench. You need to win and with just 7-8 NFL games left for fantasy football purposes, it is time to roll the dice. It doesn't make any sense to have players wither and die on your bench, so move them to teams that want depth or need players and increase your starter values.

Week 10, Question 1

"Hoarding" is one of those terms that automatically elicits negative connotations - that means "it is a bad thing". Well, not so fast my friends. I believe that sometimes you win by keeping the rest of the other teams down, and that sometimes means keeping them from picking up guys that can help their teams. If you don't significantly gain in a trade yet your opponent's team improves, don't do that deal - it may come back to haunt you in December. There is no worse feeling than getting beaten by a team with your ex-player.

Week 10, Question 2

So much goodness in this exchange, it is hard to focus on just one topic. The "trade within a trade" is a common theme here, and it makes a ton of sense. Simplify trade offers by seeing what changed from the first offer to the second or third - and see if the changes make better or worse sense. If you don't like the offer, spell out why - the new assets are worse than the old - and get to negotiating.

Week 10, Questions 3 and 4

Both questions are similar here, and they represent an important aspect of getting deals done. Not only must you decide what you need, you need to find a complimentary team (or teams) to be potential trade partners. Investigate the other teams and tell those owners what you are thinking in your offer. That shows them that you did your homework, which they should appreciate and respect. They may even snap up that first offer since you did such a good job in the first place, which is almost never a bad thing. Get these deals done!

Week 11, Question 1

You should sometimes cross your fingers and hope for a great week from a player you want to move. If you can get your guy at a "local high" and still want to trade him, that makes for a great "sell high" opportunity. Just remember to sell - don't fall in love with your player all over again.

Week 12, Question 1

When a backup RB gets a chance to start, there is an immediate want across most leagues to go and get him. Some teams are desperate for viable starters, and others just want to deepen their benches. The natural reaction is to go and get the player, but if you are fortunate enough to have that backup already and can afford to move him, capitalize on the spike in value.

Week 12, Question 2

Here we have the opposite of Question 1, when we were selling the hot name. Now we are acquiring a RB that could be seeing less work because someone else is allegedly coming to take his place (Ricky Williams for Jesse Chatman). Whether it happens or not, or if you like this particular example or not, situations like this arise (see Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson) every year. If you want to go and get the player that is supposed to be losing their job, this is the right time. Go and get him for less than you normally would.

Week 12, Question 4

Trades involving team defenses don't happen too often, but this is a no-brainer move. To be able to keep a top defense and move a second one to improve your team makes perfect sense. Once byes are over, there is no possible way that an entire team defense can ever be hurt (as much as Indianapolis is trying), so keeping one good defense and improving your team is the way to go. The extra benefit is the added roster room, which now allows for a handcuff player for the playoffs or a gamble on someone who might emerge in December.

Week 12, Question 5

The benefit of doing well in the first half of the year is being able to make these kinds of moves. Some teams need help now, whereas teams that are already playoff locks can make moves for Weeks 14, 15 and 16. Such different needs can create great deals for both sides.

Week 13, Question 1

In leagues that weight scoring heavily towards touchdowns, some of the usual names lose value, while others rise up. Fast Willie Parker has 1,000 yards but has struggled to score touchdowns, but a goal line back such as Najeh Davenport gains significant value. Always keep in mind your scoring system whenever contemplating a deal, and don't get blinded by the names of the players involved.

Week 14, Question 1

Not too much to add to this one here, but whenever you are looking at late season trades you have to take a "Big Picture" view of the situation. How much will you stand to gain for the little time left in the year, and can you recover from the guys on your bench if it doesn't pan out? Sometimes the risk is worth the reward and can lead to a championship. Making late season deals that push you over the top make you feel like you really earned that title and out-managed everyone else. Just be certain that it is the right move for your team and situation.

So that will do it for the Week 15 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe�s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.� First introduced here.

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.