Trader Joe's - Week 13

Posted 11/28 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Thanksgiving has come and gone, and I trust that you found a way to squeeze in your turkey dinner, pie and tryptophan-induced nap between the three Thursday games. The NFL Network's debut Thursday was the first of eight games and the start of multiple weeks of having at least one game before Sunday. This week, NFL Week 13 kicks off with a huge game between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys. Lots of Packers and Cowboys are important for fantasy purposes, so be sure to watch your lineup.

The fantasy playoff picture is nearly complete, and as we gear up for December and fantasy playoffs, most leagues are shutting down the trade window. The waiver wire continues for many, but for now most of our focus here at Trader Joe's will be geared towards multi-year leagues that use either keepers or consider themselves as a Dynasty league format. We'll still entertain your questions, so fire away, but do not be surprised by the volume of Keeper and Dynasty League questions the next few weeks.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Rudi Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Johnson, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
Scoring format
Number of teams in your league
Roster size
Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

Question 1: RB Values in TD Heavy Leagues
Question 2: Dynasty League, Salary Cap League, or Both?
Question 3: Whom to Keep in a Keeper League
Question 4: The Impact of Playoff Pushes on Dynasty League Teams
Question 5: Draft Picks on the Cheap

So let's get to it.

We start off Week 13 with a question from "Lambert", who considering a QB/RB deal in a TD-heavy scoring league:

Question 1:

Jeff,

I'm trying to work a trade (before our Thanksgiving trade deadline) with a team that needs QB help and contacted me about trading for Eli. We start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF. Scoring is primarily TDs (with bonus points for longer yardage TDs). We also have bonus points for total yardage if a RB/WR hits 100 total combined rush/rec yards in a game, and bonus points if a QB hits 260 passing yards.

I'm considering offering Eli & Fred Taylor for Bulger & Kevin Jones - that would give me much better RB depth, plus I might even start Jones over Edge depending on matchups (and Bulger for Eli would just leave me someone better than Clemens on my roster if Favre went down). I realize this is kind of open-ended, but I'm wondering if you have any suggestions though on whether that's my best option or if I should target someone else / some other package, and what ideas/thoughts you might have.

…

Thanks in advance for any help you can offer!

And my reply:

Hi again Lambert,

Moving Eli with an ailing Plaxico Burress is probably a good move. In a TD-mostly league, Fred Taylor has little value.

I agree with this deal if you can pull it off.

As for others to target? Well, any RB you perceive as undervalued in your league that could be a goal line vulture - like Droughns or Davenport.

Good luck.

In leagues that weight scoring heavily towards touchdowns, some of the usual names lose value, while others rise up. Fast Willie Parker has 1,000 yards but has struggled to score touchdowns, but a goal line back such as Najeh Davenport gains significant value. Always keep in mind your scoring system whenever contemplating a deal, and don't get blinded by the names of the players involved.

Our next question is from "Jersey35" who is in an interesting variation of a Dynasty League:

Question 2:

Hi Jeff.

Here is what I accomplished the week before my dynasty league trade deadline, and my question is whether I truly upgraded my team, or if I simply got trade happy...

Team after week 9:

QB: Kitna / Campbell / Leinart
RB: Willie Parker / Adrian Peterson / M. Jones-Drew / K.Jones / R.Grant / T.Henry / C.Taylor / S.Young / L.Booker / K.Irons
WR: A.Johnson / S.Smith / D.Driver / M.Colston / D.Bowe / S.Holmes / DJ.Hackett / C.Jackson
TE: J.Shockey / O.Daniels

Heading toward my trade deadline and hanging on by a thread to my division lead, I wanted to translate some of my depth at RB/WR into more solid production at QB - coming off a stretch of like 4 weeks without a TD from Kitna.

I first targeted a team at the bottom of the league that has no running game to speak of, but two decent QBs: Eli Manning and Bulger. I offered them R.Grant for Bulger straight up. I'm not going to get too technical about our salary situation, but Bulger at $10 is a very good deal for a top 10 QB. We made the deal and I moved on.

Bulger wasn't my ultimate prize though, so I moved on to the guy holding the #1 seed in the league (but losing ground quickly due to injuries at RB). He'd been playing combinations of Ron Dayne, Kenny Watson, & Najeh Davenport the last 3 weeks. So, I offered to fix his RB problem with FWP. I offered FWP + Kitna for P.Manning + T.Scheffler (don't need, but I always try to get as much as I can). The biggest reason I offered FWP is because, for cap purposes, he was the weakest link - no other RB on my team costs me more than $10, whereas FWP was at $40. So he became the carrot. We made the deal.

While Bulger at $10 was a great price, I actually went over the cap with this move (because Manning + Scheffler cost me more than FWP + Kitna), so I needed to drop some $. I was also maxed out for roster space (25) so I wanted to free up some room on the roster too, so as not to be handcuffed if/when I needed to make a pick up.

So my final move was to go after a team on the cusp of making the playoffs. As evidenced by his roster, he'd been searching for a legit #1 QB all year - he had 6 QBs rostered at the time (out of a roster max of 25). I offered him Bulger + Hackett for Calvin Johnson, citing the immediate impact both players would have on his chances of making a playoff run. We made the deal.

So, after all this wheeling & dealing, I'm left with the following dynasty roster:

Team before week 10:

QB: P.Manning / Campbell / Leinart
RB: Adrian Peterson / M. Jones Drew / K.Jones / T.Henry / C.Taylor / S.Young / L.Booker / K.Irons
WR: A.Johnson / S.Smith / D.Driver / M.Colston / D.Bowe / S.Holmes / Cal.Johnson / C.Jackson / D.Jarrett
TE: J.Shockey / O.Daniels / T.Scheffler

(I picked up D.Jarrett for now with the extra space saved from the final trade)

So, the question is: was all this wheeling and dealing ultimately wasted time? Or did I significantly improve my dynasty roster both for the short and long term?

I didn't think it was really necessary to post all my league rules for the purposes of this post, but if you care to discuss them, I'll divulge.

Long question / setup, but I think it was worth reading. Here was my response:

Hi Jersey35,

Before I comment on how you did, I have to make a general statement to anyone reading this:

THIS LEAGUE THAT JERSEY35 IS IN IS NOT A PURE DYNASTY LEAGUE.

Sorry to yell that, but it is important. If it were a pure Dynasty League, you could evaluate players on talent alone. That's not true here because you are in a Keeper / Salary Cap league. You don't own players forever because their $ escalates (I'm assuming here) and even if it doesn't, in a pure Dynasty league the only "price" of having a player on your team is the roster spot - nothing more.

You've clearly made moves based on price tags alone, which is fine within the confines of your league, but it isn't a distinct Dynasty perspective.

With that said, let's look at your team:

Before: Team after week 9:

QB: Kitna / Campbell / Leinart
RB: Willie Parker / Adrian Peterson / M. Jones Drew / K.Jones / R.Grant / T.Henry / C.Taylor / S.Young / L.Booker / K.Irons
WR: A.Johnson / S.Smith / D.Driver / M.Colston / D.Bowe / S.Holmes / DJ.Hackett / C.Jackson
TE: J.Shockey / O.Daniels

After: Team before week 10:

QB: P.Manning / Campbell / Leinart
RB: Adrian Peterson / M. Jones Drew / K.Jones / T.Henry / C.Taylor / S.Young / L.Booker / K.Irons
WR: A.Johnson / S.Smith / D.Driver / M.Colston / D.Bowe / S.Holmes / Cal.Johnson / C.Jackson / D.Jarrett
TE: J.Shockey / O.Daniels / T.Scheffler

Positionally:

QB: Manning for Kitna is an upgrade.
RB: Losing Ryan Grant and Fast Willie Parker for nothing is a major downgrade.
WR: Losing Hackett and gaining Calvin and Jarrett is an upgrade.
TE: Scheffler addition is a small upgrade.

Overall, I think you lose on value because you lost 2 good young RBs and a nice WR for a better WR and an upgrade at QB.

If you can easily obtain RBs in this league or if QBs are tough to get, then I can see the moves, but without the context of the salary cap I don't know if I like this. Peyton is a solid QB but losing two starting RBs is a major price. Sure Calvin helps, but not that much.

Good luck.

Sometimes you play in leagues that claim to something that they really are not. I've seen Contract Leagues and Salary Cap Leagues call themselves Dynasty Leagues, which is not great because it can get confusing if you are either looking for a new league or if you are trying to explain your league to someone else. Each league type matters for evaluating players and value, so it is important to understand the differences. Player values dictate trades in Dynasty Leagues (along with draft picks). Salary caps and contract years do not.

Question 3 comes from "toppshelff", who is looking at improving his Keeper League team:

Question 3:

In a 4-keeper league, start 2 RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

I have

QB: Roethlisberger , Kitna
RB: Tomlinson, Gore, Portis, Norwood, Turner, Jacobs, A. Thomas
WR: Evans, Calvin, Javon Walker, Clayton
TE: Lee

...

Have been offered Gates/Chatman for Jacobs/Lee.

Not a big fan of Jacobs, but getting to like Lee a lot. However, Gates is Gates, and Chatman will be solid to finish this year, although not keeper material.

Should I do it?

Good question. Here is what I said:

Hi toppshelff,

Welcome back.

Here's how to look at this:

You keep 4 players. I'm assuming 12 teams here, so that's 48 players, so you should be targeting the Top 45-50 players (preferably better than that, say Top 25) for your four keepers.

Do what you can to get the players that would normally go in the first 3-4 rounds or higher of a redraft league.

By my count, I see Tomlinson, Gore, Portis and Jacobs. That's 4 RBs, which is one too many, and you already said you don't love him anyway.

Gates is a lock for Top 30 in a must start TE league. Grab him in the deal for certain and don't look back. Lee is a clear TE2 to Gates and he's not going to be your keeper anyway, so move him for Gates.

Keep your best 3 RBs since you can start 3 of them plus Gates, then draft best players next season. QB and WR should be easy to find to round out your good team.

Good luck.

Keeper Leagues are fun, and they often lead to even more interesting and challenging leagues like Dynasty and Contract Leagues. That said, always try and look at what is best for your own team and maximize your keeper players. Take a look at the rest of your league as well and guess who will be kept - that helps to figure out what will be scarce in the drafting portion of your league next season. If you are facing 11 other owners who keep RBs like they are going out of style, you better plan on keeping as many as you can as well. It also helps to notice if a team is short on the better players and you might be able to deal someone you cannot keep for an extra pick.

The next question comes from "shahekee", who is in a Dynasty League that is building towards a Dynasty and it has some very interesting nuances to it:

Question 4:

Dynasty 22 man rosters 1/10 PPR start 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE/K/ST.

My RBs are Fargas, Graham, Lewis, James, Lynch, and Jordan.

My WRs are Galloway, Branch, Porter, Evans, Bruce, and Kennison.

I've been offered Holt for Lynch and Galloway.

His other RBs are Buckhalter, Dunn, Dayne, Thomas Jones, and Brandon Jackson.

His WRs are Bennett, Glenn, Hester, Jurevicius, Patten, Stallworth, and Wilford.

I am a playoff team likely with a first round bye, but am 4th in points about 200 behind the points leader 130.5 ppg -150.05 PPG

Is this a move that helps me? On the surface it seems a short term gain, long term loss as Lynch looks amazing. Holt has reportedly looked slower this year and the O-line in the Lou should get Pace back next season, but it's been awhile since the line was good for a whole season.

I'm torn and I need some help.

Thanks so much.

Here was my first reply:

Hi shahekee,

I wouldn't sell low on Lynch here. Holt is looking good right now, but he's the next veteran to get saddled with chronic knee injuries. He is playing through it this year, but I don't know if he is the same Holt in 2008 and beyond as he is today.

The Rams may also part company if Bennett and others are able to hold the fort down, but that might be a bit tough on Holt's value. Regardless, Lynch is worth way more than Holt alone, and when you thrown in Galloway this is way too one-sided.

As for this season, you can go with Evans, Galloway and WR3 by committee. Porter or Branch could cover that, maybe even Bruce as well.

I'd pass and not sweat it at all.

Good luck.

Playoff pushes are a nice way for Dynasty League teams to dump older players on the teams that are in the hunt. If you believe you need help to win a Championship, by all means go for it - that opportunity may not be there next year. You should not, however, sell short your excellent young talents just for this chance. Sometimes you have to think about the long term benefits of a player and not give him away just for a one month push. It is a tough call, but some of the best deals are the ones you never make.

We close this week with Question 5 from "shahekee" again, who has another question about a different Dynasty League and can get two draft picks for a song:

Question 5:

One more this week Jeff.

Dynasty 24 man rosters 1/10 PPR start 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE/K/ST.

I've been playing waiver wire tight ends and I'd like it to stop.

I've been offered

Jackson, Vincent SDC WR
Miller, Heath PIT TE
Year 2008 Round 2 Draft Pick
Year 2008 Round 3 Draft Pick

For

Ward, Hines PIT WR

Ward seems much better than Miller, but he's been scoring well this season.

My remaining WRs are Bobby Engram, Galloway, Houshmandzadeh, Northcutt, Jerry Porter, and Roydell Williams

His other TE are Dallas Clark and Chris Cooley

I think a pretty fair swap would be Cooley or Clark for Ward. Any thoughts?

And my reply:

Hi shahekee,

Vincent Jackson - not a fan, but he's a throw-in here IMO.

This is Ward for Heath Miller and a few picks. I'd do that. You can get by with Houshmandzadeh, Galloway and Engram for this season then start to hunt for younger WRs next year. Galloway and "Housh" give you a 2 year window to find your next WRs. I think Housh lasts quite a while, but Engram and Galloway need younger understudies to fill in 2008/2009 for your team.

Make the move and use the picks to grab WR prospects next year.

Good luck.

As I mentioned in the previous question, the playoffs are a big deal for Dynasty Leagues. Teams are heading in opposite directions, and not everyone has the same outlook all at once. Some are rebuilding and some are pushing for a championship. That's great, as you can often find a good "win-win" deal here. I think this is an example of one above, as getting a good player for WR depth and also collecting some draft picks is a great move. Draft picks are often undervalued during the season, whereas in March and April they are golden. Get some now while they are cheap.

So that will do it for the Week 13 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References:

Trader Joe�s from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.

The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino.� First introduced here.

Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.