Grin and Bear It?

  Posted 8/27 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The Chicago Bears were the #1 Team Defense in fantasy football last year, and they are also likely to go #1 in most fantasy drafts in 2007. In fact, they are so highly regarded that they are going in the 6th round according to recent ADP (Average Draft Position) statistics. The Baltimore Ravens are running a close second, also going in the 6th round on average. The question is this - is either of them worth such a high pick this season?

One of the biggest questions for your draft comes in two parts. Do you take the Bears or the Ravens early, and are they worth that pick? To answer that question, we have to take a look at why the Bears and the Ravens were so much better (in most leagues) than the rest of the league in 2006 and how they can possibly repeat that feat this year.

Tale of the Tape

Baltimore was the #2 Defense in 2006 mostly due to their ability to keep the other team from scoring. They had 11 games from Week 1-16 (and another in Week 17) where they held their opponent to 17 points or fewer, and they also had 6 games (and again another in Week 17) where they held the opposition to under 10 on the scoreboard. They even posted two shutouts during the year.

How does that compare to Chicago? They had two shutouts and four additional games under 10 just like Baltimore, but they held the opponent to 17 or less a total of just nine times (Baltimore had 12). That's a "push" on the scorecard, with a slight favorite going to the Ravens.

Both teams were also at or near the top of the league in Total Yards Against (TYA) and Total Points Against (TPA). Chicago was 5th in TYA and 3rd in TPA, whereas Baltimore was first in both categories. For leagues that reward Team Defenses in TYA, this is a key item to note.

How about turnovers and sacks? Baltimore forced 37 turnovers (2nd in the NFL) and had 60 sacks (2nd in the NFL). Chicago had 43 turnovers (1st in the NFL) and 40 sacks (tied for 8th in the NFL). Assuming normal scoring of two fantasy points for turnovers and one for a sack, Baltimore was actually the better defense (134 to 126).

The biggest difference between the Ravens and the Bears were opportunistic touchdowns. These came not just from the defense but also Special Teams. That brings up Devin Hester, who returned six kicks for a touchdown in the regular season last year for Chicago, an NFL record. The Ravens had six all season on both units, whereas the Bears racked up a total of nine touchdowns.

The Best Defense is a Bad Opponent's Offense

Another often overlooked component of Team Defense is the team's schedule. The Bears are fortunate enough to play in the NFC North against two teams with QBs that like to turn the ball over (Detroit's Jon Kitna and Green Bay's Brett Favre) and a third that had overall issues at the position (Minnesota with Brad Johnson and Tarvaris Jackson). That's six games where they should be piling up the stats right there, and not much is different this year. Add to this the 2006 schedule of the AFC East and the NFC West, along with the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Bucs, and you had several favorable matchups for the defense to exploit.

Turning to 2007, the NFC West is replaced by the NFC East and the AFC West along with New Orleans (Seattle is again on the docket), so the schedule looks about on par as in 2006. Teams that look easy in August may not be that easy in season, but having Oakland, Kansas City, the Giants and the Redskins as four opponents doesn't sound that bad.

In 2006, Baltimore faced the NFC South and the AFC West, an interesting mixture of good and bad teams, along with lesser opponents in Tennessee and Buffalo. The Ravens also get to pile on the Cleveland Browns twice a year, which offsets having to face the juggernaut of offense that is the Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh falls somewhere in between the Ravens' two other divisional foes. This season Baltimore encounters the AFC East and the NFC West along with the Colts and the Chargers, which is most definitely a harder slate of opponents.

The Bear Facts

So just how likely are the Bears to be that #1 Team Defense in fantasy football again in 2007? Well, the personnel haven't changed much at all and the schedule is at least as good as last season, if not better. The top ranking would seem to depend all on one person - Devin Hester. If he can go crazy again and post six touchdowns, that would be enough in many leagues to separate the Bears from most other defenses with most things being equal. The likelihood of that happening seems rather remote, but it certainly is possible. Given that only two other kick returners in 2006 had more than a single kick return for a touchdown (Pacman Jones returned three punts for TDs, Justin Miller returned two kickoffs for scores), I would hazard to guess that Hester will return to normal and be in the 1-3 touchdown range in 2007.

The bottom line is that if your fantasy league's scoring system gives out tons of points in general to Team Defenses (rewarding for both yards against and points against, for example) the effect of Hester is minimized. I'll say it again another way - if six touchdowns during the season would boost your fantasy defense by a significant amount, then the Chicago Bears are worth taking earlier in your particular league.

Craving the Ravens

Baltimore is tough against whomever they face, week in and week out. They lost Adalius Thomas to free agency, and Jarrett Johnson is nowhere close to an adequate replacement for "AD". Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is a mastermind in schemes however, and he should keep this unit near the top again this season. Thomas' 11 sacks will be tough to replace by one player, but the pressuring style that is the Ravens' defensive scheme will force 3-5 sacks per game and have them amongst the league leaders for 2007.

As for the special teams, Baltimore drafted Yamon Figurs to compete with the returning B.J. Sams (who suffered a major injury last year) for kick return duties, but neither will be confused for Devin Hester. Look for the Ravens to be a solid defense and an opportunistic one with Ed Reed in the secondary looking to register a "Pick Six" whenever he can.

Decision Time

In Footballguys scoring, Chicago posted 269 points in 2006, Baltimore had 245 and the next two teams had just two-thirds as many points as the Bears (San Diego 179, Green Bay 176). WCOFF scoring is even less generous, as they have no yards against component, and there the Bears had just 196 points, the Ravens 195, Green Bay 145 and the Chargers 141. The difference here is that the Packers were almost 75% of the Bears' and the Ravens' point total. Also be forewarned that the Bears may not get all those "extra" points from Devin Hester this year - six kicks returned for a touchdown is extremely rare.

Picking a defense so early in your draft can be hazardous to your fantasy team's success, but do the homework first and see how they fared in your scoring system in 2006. The difference may make you pick the Bears or the Ravens early in the draft, which may surprise everyone in your league. Then again, when you hoist the trophy in December, it won't really matter what they think, now will it?