Get a Clue From WR2 - How to find that late round TE

Posted 8/27 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are a few general rules in Fantasy Football that owners try to follow in most drafts. One of those is to wait on picking a tight end. "Load up on RBs and WRs early" is what most experts tell you. QBs and TEs will be there later in the draft, and at that point most are about equal.

I buy into this line of thinking for the most part, but not always. First, if your league's scoring system requires either 2 QBs or a TE, that position gets a boost on the value chart. Also, if the league is "TE friendly" and gives a point (or more) per catch, getting some of the guys projected to finish in the Top 10 will be valuable.

So, let's work under the presumption that you will wait until later in your draft to pick up a TE. Do not believe that they are all about equal after the best ones are gone - there are reasons to separate one TE from the next. I've already given you a clue in the title of this article, and that is to look at the rest of that tight end's team.

WR2 is Who?

The NFL is a copycat league, and that's true even when it comes to the offense and the tight ends. First, teams pass more than they ever have across the board. Since the "West Coast Offense" was first installed by Bill Walsh, the short and intermediate passing game has become a staple for many teams to move the ball down the field and keep drives going. All of this affects the tight ends in the league. Tight ends often run shorter pass routes over the middle and down the seam, working the favorable patterns to keep a drive alive.

The statistics bear this out. Nearly 10,000 passes were completed in the 2006 regular season (9,793 if you really must know), an average of just under 20 completions per team. Some teams do throw more than others, but all but two teams (Tennessee and Atlanta) averaged 16 or more receptions a game.

This all leads up to the simplest way to find a later round tight end - Look at WR2 on his team. The reasoning? Most teams have a "go-to receiver" as their primary pass catcher, but it takes more than one target to make for a decent passing game. If the second WR on the team is suspect and lacks talent, the passes have to go somewhere, and it is likely to go to the tight end.

Is this a concrete rule and one to never violate? Absolutely not. It is more in the common sense category that the ball has to get passed to somebody, and if that somebody has a bunch of targets he is much more likely to have more receptions, yards and touchdowns. It is just basic opportunity for the tight end.

So which tight ends fall into this category for this year? I'm glad you asked:

TEs to Watch

This year I see 14 teams that fit into the "questionable WR2" category, which is a broad category. I like to focus this down into three different tiers:

Tier 1 - Top 10 TEs who don't need the help. This group includes several tight ends that were very good last year (and prior years) and on suspect passing teams, but they are elite TEs that deserve to get selected early anyway. That means that they won't last as long in your fantasy draft as you might like, so you may have to pass on them. They include:

Antonio Gates - #1 TE, and the Chargers have questions at WR
Kellen Winslow, Jr - Braylon Edwards at WR1 and not much else after him (Joe Jurevicius at #2). Health issues exist for Winslow, which could make Steve Heiden a sneaky late pick.
Alge Crumpler - #2 TE and Top 5 TE for four years in a row. Vick is gone, but Harrington's ball is somewhat easier to catch. Again, WRs in Atlanta have not done much, and Joe Horn is not much of an addition.
Jeremy Shockey - Another elite TE on an offense that lacks their best RB from last year (Tiki Barber) and is likely to throw more. Amani Toomer and rookie Steve Smith compliment Plaxico Burress, but all three have had recent injuries.
Chris Cooley - The #5 TE last season and a nice target for the young QB Jason Campbell. After Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd was just a mess as WR2 last year. Antwaan Randle El may not be much better.

That is five guys that you would be lucky to grab late, but as I said they are likely unavailable after Rounds 8 and beyond. Let's look at Tier 2, the main targets for your team:

Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham - Denver's WRs are touchy after Javon Walker right now, so it may be tough for either of these guys to help too much. QB Jay Cutler does like Scheffler and Graham has done well in the preseason, so if Brandon Marshall or Brandon Stokley is not the answer to line up opposite of Walker, the Denver TE situation is one to watch.
Owen Daniels - Matt Schaub needs someone besides Andre Johnson to catch some passes. Daniels is the best candidate for this job (Kevin Walter? Come on….) and the likely second option in this passing attack. Add to this that Houston may be playing from behind and have to throw more than some other teams.
Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe - Tennessee has the same problems as a few other teams. Quick - name three WRs on the Titans. OK two. One? Anyone? Exactly. Brandon Jones and a lot of nothing for the Titans makes Vince Young love these two TEs, plus Scaife and Young go all the way back to their days at Texas.
Vernon Davis - Alex Smith is getting better and better. Unfortunately he still has questionable targets at wideout. Arnaz Battle is a good possession receiver and Darrell Jackson is a nice deep threat, but can Jackson stay healthy? Even if he can, look for a lot of passes to the TE position. Davis also benefits by Eric Johnson leaving town this past winter and joining the Saints.

After this group, we have the Tier o' Sleepers, otherwise known as Tier 3. Five teams fit this bill, and unless you are in very deep leagues or need another late tight end you may want to pass on these guys, but one or two could surprise you. Get to know the names of:

Visanthe Shiancoe - Minnesota WRs are bad. Very bad. "Who are they" bad. The Vikings have a young QB in Tarvaris Jackson who needs a reliable target to move the chains, and Shiancoe could be the answer. Fifty catches for the big ex-Giant is possible.
Jeff King - Carolina hasn't had a decent tight end since Wesley Walls, but this second year TE could break out and put up decent numbers. The former Hokie has good hands and can play on all three downs, and without Keyshawn Johnson as WR2 to Steve Smith, they need help in Carolina.
Robert Royal - Lee Evans is a stud WR for the Bills. His fellow starter (Peerless Price) is not. JP Losman is getting better and he needs a decent target, and it could easily be Royal.
Alex Smith - Tampa Bay has been playing musical chairs at WR2 this preseason. Joey Galloway is a starter, but who is the other? Maurice Stovall and David Boston have both been mentioned, but neither will scare any defenses. TE Smith should see plenty of action.
Marcedes Lewis - The Jaguars are also having WR issues this year, as no one knows who is even going to make the team. Lewis enters his second season but also must compete with Jermaine Wiggins and George Wrighster for targets, so he is a very borderline sleeper.

If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good secondary option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here - after looking at their WR2.